IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 hours ago, White Gorilla said: Interesting that models are showing a snowstorm when the EPO goes positive. I think the NAO and AO will be pulling the strings from the 28th to the 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Since 1950, there were 9 snowstorms that brought 6" or more snow to NYC during the 12/16-31 period. 6/9 (67%) had an AO-; 7/9 (78%) had a PNA+; and, 7/9 (78%) had an EPO+. Of the subset that saw 4" or more fall in Philadelphia, New York, and Boston, 4/5 (80%) had an AO-, PNA+, EPO+. The most common pattern, both for the larger set and the smaller subset was an AO-/PNA+ (56% of the cases in the larger set and 60% in the smaller subset). Don, you could go a few years back and include one of the biggest storms in NYC history, Dec 1947. I believe we had another one in Dec 1948. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, Paragon said: Don, you could go a few years back and include one of the biggest storms in NYC history, Dec 1947. I believe we had another one in Dec 1948. Unfortunately, daily teleconnection data only goes back to 1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, donsutherland1 said: Unfortunately, Daily teleconnection data only goes back to 1950. Oh no they barely missed one of the greatest winters in NYC history, 1947-48. That's like Ludlum's account of how NYC snowfall records just barely missed a near 100" snowfall winter because their records started in 1870. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: Oh no they barely missed one of the greatest winters in NYC history, 1947-48. That's like Ludlum's account of how NYC snowfall records just barely missed a near 100" snowfall winter because their records started in 1870. That’s true. It is unfortunate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 At 1 am, NYC’s temperature was 3 degrees below the forecast on the 0z GFS MOS and 6 degrees below the forecast on the 0z NAM MOS for 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Next 8 days way down to an average of 27degs., or 8degs. BN. DEC. should end up about 2.5degs. BN . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 32* and rain is a bad combo I just hit the ground. Hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 36 and rain; rather raw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 It is cool seeing ice pellets in the teens on the radar in Northern NY. That seems rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 41 minutes ago, ThatHurricane said: It is cool seeing ice pellets in the teens on the radar in Northern NY. That seems rare. Try pouring rain at 12*. I saw that here in eastern PA a few years back with the icestorm we had back in 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Real icy this morning. Busted my butt a few times. 33° w/ lgt rain falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Pouring right now here in wantagh. At least it’s washing away all the salt finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 4 hours ago, Tatamy said: Try pouring rain at 12*. I saw that here in eastern PA a few years back with the icestorm we had back in 2014. Jan 1994 it was like 3 degrees with heavy freezing rain at Poughkeepsie. We had over 2" of freezing rain with that HECS over about 2-3" of sleet lol on Long Island. Couldn't poke a hole through it with a jackhammer lol. It looked beautiful though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 5 hours ago, bluewave said: NYC has a shot at the coldest December temps of the 2010's so far this week. Very strong Arctic high pressure slides across the Great Lakes. This will allow a northerly cold air drain down the Hudson Valley. Last December was the coldest at 17 degrees. We should be able to beat that. Temperatures to or below 15 degrees look like a good possibility. But below 10 degrees has been the barrier that NYC hasn't been able to pass in December since 1989. Reached 4 degrees in NYC in Dec 1989, 2 degrees out here on the Island Couldn't get to -1 like we did in Dec 1980 on Christmas morning though lol I think Boston got to -8 in that one. Got any memories of Christmas morning 1980, Chris, did we have any snow with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: Reached 4 degrees in NYC in Dec 1989, 2 degrees out here on the Island Couldn't get to -1 like we did in Dec 1980 on Christmas morning though lol I think Boston got to -8 in that one. Got any memories of Christmas morning 1980, Chris, did we have any snow with that? I remember a couple of inches of windblown arctic shavings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, cut said: I remember a couple of inches of windblown arctic shavings. I was 7 but I dimly remember a dusting of snow or something along those lines and a lot of high winds lol. It didn't look like a white Christmas but that's what they were calling it on the news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 10 minutes ago, Paragon said: I was 7 but I dimly remember a dusting of snow or something along those lines and a lot of high winds lol. It didn't look like a white Christmas but that's what they were calling it on the news. I was in Easton CT. and we probably had like 2 or 3 inches - the wind was so strong that the lawn was basically just grass with little snow drifts here and there, and everything looked like it had powdered sugar on it. I was 11 and remember that Christmas well. All our garage windows had ice on them, it looked like stock footage you might see in a Green Bay Packers pre game show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 0.50" rain here today...Euro shows high temps not out of the 20's from Wed thru the end of its run...Bitter new years eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 hours ago, Paragon said: Reached 4 degrees in NYC in Dec 1989, 2 degrees out here on the Island Couldn't get to -1 like we did in Dec 1980 on Christmas morning though lol I think Boston got to -8 in that one. Got any memories of Christmas morning 1980, Chris, did we have any snow with that? Christmas Eve had a few hours of snow, which coated the ground. Christmas morning had high winds to go along with the subzero low temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Christmas Eve had a few hours of snow, which coated the ground. Christmas morning had high winds to go along with the subzero low temperature. 1980 had an event on the 23rd that gave NYC a little snow and ice...Christmas eve had a period of wet snow coating the ground...I believe there was almost an inch on the ground in places Christmas morning from both events... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 hours ago, cut said: I was in Easton CT. and we probably had like 2 or 3 inches - the wind was so strong that the lawn was basically just grass with little snow drifts here and there, and everything looked like it had powdered sugar on it. I was 11 and remember that Christmas well. All our garage windows had ice on them, it looked like stock footage you might see in a Green Bay Packers pre game show. It sounds like one of the colder snows that's ever fallen, sort of like the 2003-04 winter when we had snow in the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Despite swings in the operational guidance concerning a potential snowstorm toward the end of December, I have no changes in my overall thinking that the pattern continues to evolve toward one with potential for a moderate or significant snowstorm. Such a storm would have the potential to bring a moderate or significant snowfall from Washington, DC to Boston, as well as interior sections. My preference is for the ensembles with some preference given to the higher-resolution operational ECMWF. Monthly Mean Temperature for NYC Through: 12/22 39.1° 12/25 39.0°-39.3° (12/22 estimate: 38.8°-39.6°) 12/31 35.2°-36.8° (12/22 estimate: 35.4°-37.5°) Estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 66% (12/22 estimate: 59%) The 12z GFS MOS shows a forecast high temperature of 25° for NYC on 12/28 and 12/29. That would be the coldest December high temperature since the temperature rose to only 23° on December 14, 2010. The GFS MOS also shows a low temperature of 13° on 12/29. That would be NYC’s coldest December reading since the temperature reached 13° on December 22, 2008. The operational ECMWF and GFS have even colder figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: It sounds like one of the colder snows that's ever fallen, sort of like the 2003-04 winter when we had snow in the single digits. It was - and it was so windy that all the snow flakes were seemingly pulverized into dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 31 minutes ago, uncle W said: 1980 had an event on the 23rd that gave NYC a little snow and ice...Christmas eve had a period of wet snow coating the ground...I believe there was almost an inch on the ground in places Christmas morning from both events... Up in southern Westchester, the ground was covered by a solid inch of snow. The high winds blew the snow so that some of the ground was exposed, while small drifts existed elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, cut said: It was - and it was so windy that all the snow flakes were seemingly pulverized into dust. Saw that in Feb 2015 too I think snow crystals falling from clear skies- very weird! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: Up in southern Westchester, the ground was covered by a solid inch of snow. The high winds blew the snow so that some of the ground was exposed, while small drifts existed elsewhere. I remember going down to the Narrows off of Bay Ridge Brooklyn and saw steam coming from the water...the period from around Christmas 1980 and late January 1981 was one of the coldest 30 days on record...snowfall was light but what ever fell lasted a long time...Early January 1981 was the only time I saw a snowstorm with south west winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, uncle W said: I remember going down to the Narrows off of Bay Ridge Brooklyn and saw steam coming from the water...the period from around Christmas 1980 and late January 1981 was one of the coldest 30 days on record...snowfall was light but what ever fell lasted a long time...Early January 1981 was the only time I saw a snowstorm with south west winds... Hey we had that with the HECS in late Feb 2010 I remember being surprised that winds were right out of the S and SW and howling and it was snowing hard that night and raining in New England lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, uncle W said: I remember going down to the Narrows off of Bay Ridge Brooklyn and saw steam coming from the water...the period from around Christmas 1980 and late January 1981 was one of the coldest 30 days on record...snowfall was light but what ever fell lasted a long time...Early January 1981 was the only time I saw a snowstorm with south west winds... We saw this a lot in the 80s, very cold Januarys with a small amount of snowfall that lasted a long time. The winter after had a very cold Jan 82 and the blizzard in April! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: We saw this a lot in the 80s, very cold Januarys with a small amount of snowfall that lasted a long time. The winter after had a very cold Jan 82 and the blizzard in April! from 1976 to 1985 there was some of the coldest January's and winter minimums...the three years that didn't have record cold were el nino years...the other one was 1976-77 that was very cold...77-78 was very cold but never did get into the single digits...the only great winter was 1977-78...Feb 78 and 79 are the only two cold ones... ...-1 in 1975-76 ...-2 in 1976-77 ..10 in 1977-78 ....0 in 1978-79 ..10 in 1979-80 ...-1 in 1980-81 ....0 in 1981-82 ..12 in 1982-83 ....4 in 1983-84 ...-2 in 1984-85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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