Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 22 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The Euro is rain and warm on Christmas, so is the Canadian. They're not caving to the gfs. If you want to believe the gfs because it’s showing snow, that’s your right We sure go into the deep freeze from 12/26 on. The question will then be how many storms are there-the last cold wave gave us 3 measureable events in 7 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: We sure go into the deep freeze from 12/26 on. The question will then be how many storms are there-the last cold wave gave us 3 measureable events in 7 days... The pattern once the cold comes in on 12/26 is not one that would support a major snowstorm/KU. The TPV drops down into south central Canada; fast flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 20 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The pattern once the cold comes in on 12/26 is not one that would support a major snowstorm/KU. The TPV drops down into south central Canada; fast flow That's still good for snow lovers, the last cold shot gave us 3 snow events 1 moderate and 2 light. Hopefully this does the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The Euro is rain and warm on Christmas, so is the Canadian. They're not caving to the gfs. If you want to believe the gfs because it’s showing snow, that’s your right The Euro has been shifting east and getting colder . You are just a warm troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: That's still good for snow lovers, the last cold shot gave us 3 snow events 1 moderate and 2 light. Hopefully this does the same. Agree We can still get snow in that pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Agree We can still get snow in that patternI've gotten 9"+ overrunning thump snows in SWFE setups so yeah, not a KU setup but also not a clear shutout look either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 38 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The pattern once the cold comes in on 12/26 is not one that would support a major snowstorm/KU. The TPV drops down into south central Canada; fast flow Who ever said we were looking for a KU pattern ? That pattern screams overrunning potential for a 7-10 day period beginning right after Christmas. We know how much you hate the cold and that’s fine...but at least look at the models before posting. You did that a few weeks ago with the NAM when it showed a low closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The pattern once the cold comes in on 12/26 is not one that would support a major snowstorm/KU. The TPV drops down into south central Canada; fast flow LOL-we all have 25% of seasonal snowfall totals on 12/15 already from a pattern that did not support a KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The pattern once the cold comes in on 12/26 is not one that would support a major snowstorm/KU. The TPV drops down into south central Canada; fast flow How can you be certain exactly how the setup is going to look a week or more from today when the guidance has been horrible past 3 days this month so far ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The pattern once the cold comes in on 12/26 is not one that would support a major snowstorm/KU. The TPV drops down into south central Canada; fast flow The tpv shifts east like 2 days later into SE Canada which can act like a -NAO promoting SECS potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Interesting that the last GFS run has the frontal passage on the EC doorstep by Christmas. Are we looking at crashing temps late on Christmas Day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 EPS has the AO going towards neutral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Gfs now has us snowing on Christmas Day! 12/22 also is sorta close to giving us something as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Gfs now has us snowing on Christmas Day! 12/22 also is sorta close to giving us something as well. I am liking it that we are seeing an active pattern. Nothing worse than cold and dry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: I am liking it that we are seeing an active pattern. Nothing worse than cold and dry... Agree, 12/23 will be a cutter for sure but all the others potential storms could make things interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 38 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Agree, 12/23 will be a cutter for sure but all the others potential storms could make things interesting. Exactly, I have already written off this period. We do not live in Labrador. We always have warm intervals. Feb 15 was a freak month. I’ll take 7-10 day periods that deliver 8” of snow on 3 events any year. As long as the warm periods are transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 ^ Glad that 60° Christmas run is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, doncat said: ^ Glad that 60° Christmas run is gone. If you want the system after Christmas to be big, then you want the Christmas storm to cut well West and amplify the flow further. I don't think the Christmas system has major potential. I could see it producing a few inches but I think the pattern behind that looks promising. Just not enough cold air to work with preceeding the Christmas event. Not for the coast anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: If you want the system after Christmas to be big, then you want the Christmas storm to cut well West and amplify the flow further. I don't think the Christmas system has major potential. I could see it producing a few inches but I think the pattern behind that looks promising. Just not enough cold air to work with preceeding the Christmas event. Not for the coast anyway. The Christmas storm would require a 100% perfect setup. As of now it doesn’t even really qualify as wave on the Op euro. It’s almost a challenged quasi late phasing Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 59 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: If you want the system after Christmas to be big, then you want the Christmas storm to cut well West and amplify the flow further. I don't think the Christmas system has major potential. I could see it producing a few inches but I think the pattern behind that looks promising. Just not enough cold air to work with preceeding the Christmas event. Not for the coast anyway. Rain to snow for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: When was the last time we had such a perfectly zonal Arctic outbreak from the Pacific to the Atlantic? February 03 maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Rain to snow for the coast I said there could be a few inches for the Christmas storm, and that's if everything perfectly comes together. The big potential is between Christmas and New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I said there could be a few inches for the Christmas storm, and that's if everything perfectly comes together. The big potential is between Christmas and New Years. I agree with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 Earthlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: I said there could be a few inches for the Christmas storm, and that's if everything perfectly comes together. The big potential is between Christmas and New Years. A December to remember hopefully. Heck even an inch on Christmas will be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Off run gfs really rushes the cold front now, could be through before Christmas with no storm behind it. Main warm up happens on the 23rd with much colder air to follow, arctic air by the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 10 hours ago, snowman19 said: The pattern once the cold comes in on 12/26 is not one that would support a major snowstorm/KU. The TPV drops down into south central Canada; fast flow Suppression. I believe the snow will come when the pattern is about to relax. Not sure why people are behaving like we are snow-starved and need it ASAP. We just had 3 storms in one week and 6-10 inches lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Off run gfs really rushes the cold front now, could be through before Christmas with no storm behind it. Main warm up happens on the 23rd with much colder air to follow, arctic air by the 26th. Christmas is the transition day, expect the high to be in the wee hours and temperatures falling through the 40s during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Paragon said: Christmas is the transition day, expect the high to be in the wee hours and temperatures falling through the 40s during the day. wow you can time this all out to the hour over 5 days in advance mile by mile - temp by temp - I am impressed..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: wow you can time this all out to the hour over 5 days in advance mile by mile - temp by temp - I am impressed..... This is how it usually works. Where did you see hour by hour? It's a general statement. On transition days the high is almost always in the early hours and temperatures drop throughout the day. Anyone who gets into specifics at this range is foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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