AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 It would be interesting the statistics when 500mb is completely cutoff and retrograding north. Add lack of 10mb warming, and I think it's almost always going to result in stronger PV somewhere 60N, a few weeks later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Major positive bust today for temps. KFRG already at 47. Snow here on the island has gone poof! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 14 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Major positive bust today for temps. KFRG already at 47. Snow here on the island has gone poof! Wow. Im at 39, dont think we'll hit our forecast unless the sun shows up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Yeah 37 here with 100% snow cover. Right around 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 JMA gives us snow for Christmas day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 30 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: JMA gives us snow for Christmas day Euro looked better as well, but still a grinch storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 1 hour ago, BxEngine said: Wow. Im at 39, dont think we'll hit our forecast unless the sun shows up soon. It’s been full sun on the western part of the island since about 10am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 socked in here-cloudy and about 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 Current temp is 47 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 39 and completely overcast here. We had a couple of hours of sun and the temp maxed at 44 around 1PM. We had full coverage 2" here this morning, but down to around 50% snow cover in the open areas now and I'm calling it a trace. There's still good cover in the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 12Z GFS from today for New Years morning is back to AN and 20 or 30 degrees warmer at 850mb from previous 12Z: Big timing problem here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 12z GEFS for same time frame if you really insist on posting 300+ hour anomaly maps. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 Just playing devils advocate a bit, this could change and who knows what will happen after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Really starting to wonder if an 89/90 pattern is possible. Just look at that massive wave of arctic air taking over most of the CONUS on the latest gfs. Timing looks very close to Christmas but most likely the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Really starting to wonder if an 89/90 pattern is possible. Just look at that massive wave of arctic air taking over most of the CONUS on the latest gfs. Timing looks very close to Christmas but most likely the 26th. I doubt we see it be that much of an extreme. Maybe more like a 00-01 flip or even 03-04 flipping 2 weeks earlier than it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: This is pretty much what the seasonal models have been showing since the beginning of November. The latest EPS weeklies support this as the tropical forcing shifts west from the WPAC to the Maritime Continent. Would this be considered a normal January thaw which seems to always center itself around the second or third week of the month? Curious to see where things would go after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 18z gefs is colder than the op for Xmas and has the coastal low in a good spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Major positive bust today for temps. KFRG already at 47. Snow here on the island has gone poof! Yup, car thermometer was reading 50 in Long Beach this afternoon. Felt nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 6 hours ago, bluewave said: Probably some of the shortest wavelengths that we have seen with such a strong -EPO block in late December. This allows the SE ridge to really flex its muscles right before Christmas. But the wavelengths expand after Christmas and the Arctic cold finally arrives. The question is will the cold get here like in the 80s, just a little too late and the moisture will be gone and we'll just have cold and dry for a few days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 4 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: I doubt we see it be that much of an extreme. Maybe more like a 00-01 flip or even 03-04 flipping 2 weeks earlier than it did. Question is will it flip back (a la 1995-96)? Also, if we do get snow will it occur in the final days of December or wait for early January like what we got in Jan 1996 before the flip to warmer weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 4 hours ago, bluewave said: It seems like more a result of the La Nina background state becoming dominant as the anomalous WPAC forcing is forecast to wane. Forcing near the Maritime Continent during a La Nina is pretty normal. So a pattern favoring a strong SE ridge is what the latest EPS weeklies transition to after the first week of January. Happened in 1995-96 too and then flipped back to colder in early February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Following Christmas, the guidance suggests a fascinating battle of the teleconnections. The EPO remains forecast to dive to perhaps as low as -3.000. The Arctic Oscillation (AO), which now stands at a monthly high figure of a preliminary +2.047 is forecast by numerous ensemble members to be positive to possibly strongly positive before falling toward New Year’s Day. The PNA is forecast to be fairly neutral (somewhat negative to somewhat positive depending on which ensemble members one examines. Yet, even as the AO+ can delay the onset of cold (and for that reason I continue to lean toward the ECMWF guidance that shows the cold moving into the East on or just after Christmas Day), the outcome does not always mean that the cold won’t arrive. Should the SOI remain negative, as is currently the case, the cold could be delayed further. However, the guidance currently suggests that the Pacific trade winds will begin to increase, leading to a positive SOI within the next 7-10 days. Running a composite based on the teleconnections to avoid a possible skewed picture from a disproportionate reliance on the AO, which can have among the largest correlations to outcomes in the northeastern U.S., the following data from the 12/20-31/1981-2010 base period is available for NYC. All dates: Mean temperature: 36.0° Expected pattern based on the AO, PNA, and EPO forecasts: 34.9° …Expected pattern with an SOI-: 36.6° …Expected pattern with an SOI+: 33.6° (presently the most likely outcome) Based on this data, the GEFS, and a preference for the EPS for the Day 10-15 outlook, I remain confident that December has not yet seen its coldest readings in such cities as Bridgeport, New York, and Newark (lowest temperatures respectively 16°, 20°, and 17°). I also expect additional snowfall at all three locations before the month has ended. For the winter as a whole, the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions still remain on course for above to possibly much above average snowfall. Seasonal snowfall anomalies to date are as follows: Baltimore: 3.8” (+2.0”) Boston: 6.1” (+0.8”) Bridgeport: 6.4” (+3.6”) New York City: 7.0” (+4.7”) Newark: 7.1” (+4.4”) Philadelphia: 7.7” (+6.0”) Portland: 8.9” (+1.0”) Providence: 5.7” (No anomaly) Washington, DC: 1.7” (+0.1”) In terms of NYC’s monthly temperature, based on a sensitivity analysis using the latest modeled data, the City still has about a 50%-56% probability of having a cold anomaly. Monthly Mean Temperature: Through: 12/17 38.2° 12/20 38.4° - 39.0° 12/25 38.6° - 40.2° 12/31 35.9° - 38.4° lol I didn't know Philly had more snow than NYC so far. More than anyone in that list but Portland wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 14 hours ago, snowman19 said: The GFS/GEFS is very likely too fast as is usual for that model. More likely the cold comes after Christmas Day like the EPS and GEPS are showing That will also (I think anyway) delay any snow chances until New Years or just after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I'm not sure the gfs being too fast bias applies here, there's so much arctic air being ejected that it just overwhelms that SE ridge. There's also a boundary prior to Christmas that helps shift the ridge to the east. Tonight's gfs also builds the -EPO further north towards the pole, which dilutes the SE ridge further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, SnoSki14 said: I'm not sure the gfs being too fast bias applies here, there's so much arctic air being ejected that it just overwhelms that SE ridge. There's also a boundary prior to Christmas that helps shift the ridge to the east. Tonight's gfs also builds the -EPO further north towards the pole, which dilutes the SE ridge further. ? Tonight’s GFS just slowed the arrival of the cold front. It’s moving toward the other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Possibly historic pattern Look at how these low's spin south from Greenland! (click to animate) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 GFS Christmas snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Next 8 days averaging 41degs., or 4 or 5 degrees AN. Both the GFS/CMC still wasting 1.5" precipitation as rain. GFS does keep temperature at 32 or less continuously starting Boxer Day, if that is any consolation. Shows 9 STRAIGHT days and I think record is 16 in NYC. Hardest type of record to set, one misstep and it is over, even it is only a degree above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 6 hours ago, snowman19 said: ? Tonight’s GFS just slowed the arrival of the cold front. It’s moving toward the other guidance No The other guidance are moving towards the gfs. Euro and eps just shifted east with the low and the speed of the frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: No The other guidance are moving towards the gfs. Euro and eps just shifted east with the low and the speed of the frontal passage. The Euro is rain and warm on Christmas, so is the Canadian. They're not caving to the gfs. If you want to believe the gfs because it’s showing snow, that’s your right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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