snowman19 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 2 hours ago, qg_omega said: Classic MJO phase 7 with a background Nina state, I wouldn't underestimate the SE ridge This. I guess some people don’t realize that the MJO phases have completely different effects on the long wave pattern based on whether you are in a La Niña, El Niño or neutral. Totally different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 29 minutes ago, Snow88 said: EPO on the gefs is tanking off the charts just before xmas. It looks to me as if there will be a 1-2 week relaxation and then more cold and threats of snow could arrive (probably within a few days on either side of the Christmas holiday), assuming the idea of an EPO-/PNA+ shown by the guidance is reasonably accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 6 hours ago, Paragon said: Don, is there a way of calculating which winter in NYC history had the most potential and what its likely range was? Perhaps a winter in the 1800s- I think you mentioned that David Ludlum wrote an account of a winter just prior to when records started being kept at Central Park when over 90 inches of snow fell in New York City? Reliable teleconnections data isn't available before 1950. The winter Ludlum referenced was 1867-68. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 3 hours ago, qg_omega said: Classic MJO phase 7 with a background Nina state, I wouldn't underestimate the SE ridge And I wouldn’t underestimate the -EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 33 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This. I guess some people don’t realize that the MJO phases have completely different effects on the long wave pattern based on whether you are in a La Niña, El Niño or neutral. Totally different I wouldn’t be totally afraid of the SE ridge in this pattern... that is some nice looking blocking in the Pacific... screams tons of energy and the SE ridge just funnels it right towards us... Sure we could see plenty of changeover events but I’ll roll the dice with that look on a nice SWFE, all it would take is one well timed HP in SE Canada(of which there is a lot modeled) to provide a nice front end dump event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 GFS is closer with the coastal low for tomorrow night. CMC has about 1-3 for nyc tomorrow night. Weak coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: GFS is closer with the coastal low for tomorrow night. CMC has about 1-3 for nyc tomorrow night. Weak coastal The RGEM has a light accumulation, too. With the PNA+, one can't rule out the developing storm's coming close enough to bring some snowfall to the area. It will be interesting to see what the later guidance shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 26 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: I wouldn’t be totally afraid of the SE ridge in this pattern... that is some nice looking blocking in the Pacific... screams tons of energy and the SE ridge just funnels it right towards us... Sure we could see plenty of changeover events but I’ll roll the dice with that look on a nice SWFE, all it would take is one well timed HP in SE Canada(of which there is a lot modeled) to provide a nice front end dump event. Time and again we've seen the SE Ridge help bring storms up the coast that would have been out to sea in the 80s. We walk a tight rope, so it's a nail biter for sure- but climatology around here makes that true 90% of the time. Granted this is a better pattern in February (example Feb 2008 excellent front end dump of 6-8 inches), but it's still way better than cold and dry or warm and wet/dry. No SE Ridge and invariably storms go west to east far south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Reliable teleconnections data isn't available before 1950. The winter Ludlum referenced was 1867-68. I did some research of past storms for my almanac page and found 1866-67 to be one of the snowiest winters...it had three major storms...1867-68 also had two major storms... the New York Tribune newspaper from 1/1/1873 has a list of past snowstorms going back to 1854...the January 1857 storm is not listed and could be an error... 1872 1/1/1873 http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1873-01-01/ed-1/seq-1/ this is what I found so far for the 1836 big snow and the 1857 blizzard... 1857 from the ny daily tribune... http://chroniclingam...-20/ed-1/seq-5/ . 1836 'big snow' from the NY herald from 1/10/1836... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030311/1836-01-11/ed-1/seq-2/ articles I found for the 1866-67 winter... January 1867 http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-01-18/ed-1/seq-4/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-01-21/ed-1/seq-5/ March 1867 http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-03-18/ed-1/seq-5/ the winter of 1892-93...It had 77.6" of snow recorded in lower Manhattan...Much higher numbers than what was recorded in Central Park... January 5th, 1893...A foot of snow... http://chroniclingam...-06/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1893-01-07/ed-1/seq-1/ January 12th, 1893...20" on the ground... http://chroniclingam...-15/ed-1/seq-4/ http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ February 17th 1893...17" snowstorm...9" Central Park... http://chroniclingam...-18/ed-1/seq-1/ http://bklyn.newspap...image/50379835/ The winter of 1893-94 had 37" of snow in February...much less recorded in Central Park... January 27th, 1894...7" of snow... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50349197 http://chroniclingam...-28/ed-1/seq-4/ February 12th, 1894...14" of snow... http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-2/ http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ February 26th, 1894...8" of snow/sleet http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-26/ed-1/seq-1/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Big overruning potential near Xmas with the EPO tanking and the ridge flexing on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 1 hour ago, JetsPens87 said: And I wouldn’t underestimate the -EPO Agreed , -EPO H/P confluence through the lakes is always under modeled If you guys are betting on a warm SE ridge you're going to lose I only show up here before events , Merry Christmas week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Just look at today's day 8 GEFS at 500 vs it's old day 10. Thats in only 2 days , wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Big overruning potential near Xmas with the EPO tanking and the ridge flexing on the GFS. Go on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 32/24 today in the park. Do we drop to 23 before midnight, so I can get my -10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 18z gfs is colder in the long range. The models are starting to go towards a colder end of December thanks to the negative epo influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 35 minutes ago, bluewave said: The EPS weeklies are going for a long duration southward dropping gradient pattern. Holds onto the -EPO through January 7th. One of the few times that we have seen such good agreement between the EPS weeklies and JMA weeklies. Very active SWFE overrunning storm track. Average gradient location for 7 day periods 12/21-12/28....I-80 12/25-01/01...ACY 12/28-01/04...SBY 01/01-01/08...RDU 01/04-01/11...RDU Is this reminiscent of the pattern in 1993-1994? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 8 hours ago, uncle W said: I did some research of past storms for my almanac page and found 1866-67 to be one of the snowiest winters...it had three major storms...1867-68 also had two major storms... the New York Tribune newspaper from 1/1/1873 has a list of past snowstorms going back to 1854...the January 1857 storm is not listed and could be an error... 1872 1/1/1873 http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1873-01-01/ed-1/seq-1/ this is what I found so far for the 1836 big snow and the 1857 blizzard... 1857 from the ny daily tribune... http://chroniclingam...-20/ed-1/seq-5/ . 1836 'big snow' from the NY herald from 1/10/1836... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030311/1836-01-11/ed-1/seq-2/ articles I found for the 1866-67 winter... January 1867 http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-01-18/ed-1/seq-4/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-01-21/ed-1/seq-5/ March 1867 http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-03-18/ed-1/seq-5/ the winter of 1892-93...It had 77.6" of snow recorded in lower Manhattan...Much higher numbers than what was recorded in Central Park... January 5th, 1893...A foot of snow... http://chroniclingam...-06/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1893-01-07/ed-1/seq-1/ January 12th, 1893...20" on the ground... http://chroniclingam...-15/ed-1/seq-4/ http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ February 17th 1893...17" snowstorm...9" Central Park... http://chroniclingam...-18/ed-1/seq-1/ http://bklyn.newspap...image/50379835/ The winter of 1893-94 had 37" of snow in February...much less recorded in Central Park... January 27th, 1894...7" of snow... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50349197 http://chroniclingam...-28/ed-1/seq-4/ February 12th, 1894...14" of snow... http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-2/ http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ February 26th, 1894...8" of snow/sleet http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-26/ed-1/seq-1/ What a great find. It is fascinating to read those accounts from 1836, 180+ years ago. It is interesting how it opens with "New York has just been visted by one of the most splendid snow storms that ever perhaps has taken place since the old colonial times, when sleighing continued on Manhattan island for three or four months a year without intermission." The way that three to four months of consecutive snowcover is mentioned as if it is common knowledge is interesting. Also funny how at the time of this writing, "colonial times" was only 60 years prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 47 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: What a great find. It is fascinating to read those accounts from 1836, 180+ years ago. It is interesting how it opens with "New York has just been visted by one of the most splendid snow storms that ever perhaps has taken place since the old colonial times, when sleighing continued on Manhattan island for three or four months a year without intermission." The way that three to four months of consecutive snowcover is mentioned as if it is common knowledge is interesting. Also funny how at the time of this writing, "colonial times" was only 60 years prior. I remember seeing an old almanac with snowfall records from Battery Park...It had 1892-93 with 77.6" of snow...Central Park had around 50"...these articles mention a 17" snowstorm and 20" on the ground when Central Park's biggest storm was 9"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 17 out this way. Never got above freezing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 34 minutes ago, uncle W said: I remember seeing an old almanac with snowfall records from Battery Park...It had 1892-93 with 77.6" of snow...Central Park had around 50"...these articles mention a 17" snowstorm and 20" on the ground when Central Park's biggest storm was 9"... Over the years on this board I've seen a lot of posts about undermeasurement at Central Park. That goes back at least 125 years apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 5 hours ago, Morris said: 32/24 today in the park. Do we drop to 23 before midnight, so I can get my -10? 24 before 10 pm. We can do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 Current temp down to 24 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 hour ago, Morris said: 24 before 10 pm. We can do it. Done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 Temp down to 20 here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 8 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said: What a great find. It is fascinating to read those accounts from 1836, 180+ years ago. It is interesting how it opens with "New York has just been visted by one of the most splendid snow storms that ever perhaps has taken place since the old colonial times, when sleighing continued on Manhattan island for three or four months a year without intermission." The way that three to four months of consecutive snowcover is mentioned as if it is common knowledge is interesting. Also funny how at the time of this writing, "colonial times" was only 60 years prior. In the Pennsylvania Weather Book they mention that a couple of the years quoted had 100"+ inch totals at both Philly and New York City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 9 hours ago, bluewave said: The EPS weeklies are going for a long duration southward dropping gradient pattern. Holds onto the -EPO through January 7th. One of the few times that we have seen such good agreement between the EPS weeklies and JMA weeklies. Very active SWFE overrunning storm track. Average gradient location for 7 day periods 12/21-12/28....I-80 12/25-01/01...ACY 12/28-01/04...SBY 01/01-01/08...RDU 01/04-01/11...RDU So the gradient keeps sinking south throughout the period? Which is the ideal location for us- ACY? RDU sounds like suppression lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 16 hours ago, uncle W said: I did some research of past storms for my almanac page and found 1866-67 to be one of the snowiest winters...it had three major storms...1867-68 also had two major storms... the New York Tribune newspaper from 1/1/1873 has a list of past snowstorms going back to 1854...the January 1857 storm is not listed and could be an error... 1872 1/1/1873 http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1873-01-01/ed-1/seq-1/ this is what I found so far for the 1836 big snow and the 1857 blizzard... 1857 from the ny daily tribune... http://chroniclingam...-20/ed-1/seq-5/ . 1836 'big snow' from the NY herald from 1/10/1836... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030311/1836-01-11/ed-1/seq-2/ articles I found for the 1866-67 winter... January 1867 http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-01-18/ed-1/seq-4/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-01-21/ed-1/seq-5/ March 1867 http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-03-18/ed-1/seq-5/ the winter of 1892-93...It had 77.6" of snow recorded in lower Manhattan...Much higher numbers than what was recorded in Central Park... January 5th, 1893...A foot of snow... http://chroniclingam...-06/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1893-01-07/ed-1/seq-1/ January 12th, 1893...20" on the ground... http://chroniclingam...-15/ed-1/seq-4/ http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ February 17th 1893...17" snowstorm...9" Central Park... http://chroniclingam...-18/ed-1/seq-1/ http://bklyn.newspap...image/50379835/ The winter of 1893-94 had 37" of snow in February...much less recorded in Central Park... January 27th, 1894...7" of snow... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50349197 http://chroniclingam...-28/ed-1/seq-4/ February 12th, 1894...14" of snow... http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-2/ http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ February 26th, 1894...8" of snow/sleet http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-26/ed-1/seq-1/ For some reason our biggest winters seem to occur around the time of some big war, so I guess that's what we need right now to get a big winter (JK). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 8 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said: What a great find. It is fascinating to read those accounts from 1836, 180+ years ago. It is interesting how it opens with "New York has just been visted by one of the most splendid snow storms that ever perhaps has taken place since the old colonial times, when sleighing continued on Manhattan island for three or four months a year without intermission." The way that three to four months of consecutive snowcover is mentioned as if it is common knowledge is interesting. Also funny how at the time of this writing, "colonial times" was only 60 years prior. Going back to the 1700s there are some winters quoted with constant snowcover from Thanksgiving right through Easter. Shops setting up in the middle of the Hudson River and people walking across, etc. Three foot snowstorms with temps near 0, etc. Funny thing is going back as far as I could in time with records, I could only find one record of a temp below the -15 recorded in Feb 1934, and that was -16 in January of some year in the 1700s! I think that was the big New England winter when they had three snowstorms that covered the first stories of houses. I found a copy of a really old Almanac at the New York Public Library that has temp records for NYC going all the way back to the early 1700s and it's interesting that back then February was consistently colder than January (but both had average temps in the 20s- January was like 28, and February around 25 average temp.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Down to 2 in Westhampton and 4 in Monticello. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 26 minutes ago, Morris said: Down to 2 in Westhampton and 4 in Monticello. 2?! When was the last time FOK went below zero in December? I know for NYC it was Christmas 1980 (-1). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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