Paragon Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 18 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Mr. Noll included 1992-93. Winter 1992-93 was a neutral ENSO winter, not a La Niña winter. Of course, if one excludes this non-La Niña winter, the composite is somewhat different from what the map shows (much less of a trough in the west and somewhat less expansive ridging in the East). Further, January 2011 featured a trough in the means in the East and a ridge in the means in the West, almost the opposite of what the posted map is showing. You really can't reach any conclusions with his six analog list regarding snowfall, three of them featured well above normal snowfall in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 20 degrees out here in Orient Point. Taking the ferry then driving to the White Mountains for a photography trip. They got about a foot yesterday so it should be fun albeit cold. High tomorrow is only 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Just that the NAO has been in the most positive extended December state on record since 2011. Notice how we set a record low and then a high within 2 years. This type of extreme behavior is something new for us. We're also seeing extremities in Pacific blocking. The massive ice melt could definitely be the cause of it. Some models predicted this would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: It matches the corals study results in 2009 with the more extreme NAO behavior. The oceans are becoming massive heat sinks for the warming (this could also result in the "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge" in the West.) Also carbon dioxide makes water more acidic and warmer resulting in coral reef bleaching as the reefs expel their algae. The Great Barrier Reef will likely be gone within 20 years or less, resulting in a massive imbalance to the marine ecosystem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 19 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 12 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 19 here Let's see if this morning ends up being the coldest morning for the entire month (and if 12/9 ends up being the snowiest day of the month.) What are the lows this morning for NYC/LGA/JFK/EWR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: it will be interesting to see if there is a big mixed precip or ice event near the Appalachians close to Christmas. Probably not what people want to see with all the traveling going on then. If you had to guess, Chris do you think we'll see anything significant in the Dec 23-Jan 1 period or does it look like more overrunning mix to rain events for us and snow to ice events for the Poconos? If so, that's where I will be for the last 10 days of the month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Before and to Christmas it looks like interior regions are favored for the best mixed or ice potential. Maybe after Christmas the boundary can slip east of us. But it's too early to tell now. Thanks! Frequent events or something closer to average (something like one event per week)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 it will be interesting to see if there is a big mixed precip or ice event near the Appalachians close to Christmas. Probably not what people want to see with all the traveling going on then. Wont take much shifting for that sprawling HP in Canada to seep a little farther S and E causing CAD based on those maps. Only need a small wedge for huge problems. Glad it is a ways out there. Definitely something to watch with activity in the stj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: Before and to Christmas it looks like interior regions are favored for the best mixed or ice potential. Maybe after Christmas the boundary can slip east of US. But it's too early to tell now. Going into Christmas, the -EPO is there but the PNA goes negative, AO goes neutral, NAO goes positive, and the SE ridge flexes and possibly really flexes for a time. This will favor central and northern interior New England (ice/snow/overrunning), at least through Christmas, there are signs this may relax after Christmas and the boundary drops further south, but that’s very long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 42 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Going into Christmas, the -EPO is there but the PNA goes negative, AO goes neutral, NAO goes positive, and the SE ridge flexes and possibly really flexes for a time. This will favor central and northern interior New England (ice/snow/overrunning), at least through Christmas, there are signs this may relax after Christmas and the boundary drops further south, but that’s very long range Yes and these things are usually delayed, so it might be more like the first week of January when that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Going into Christmas, the -EPO is there but the PNA goes negative, AO goes neutral, NAO goes positive, and the SE ridge flexes and possibly really flexes for a time. This will favor central and northern interior New England (ice/snow/overrunning), at least through Christmas, there are signs this may relax after Christmas and the boundary drops further south, but that’s very long range These features are also weakening more in general over the last 24 hours on majority of the ens. Huge EPO still evident with bridge over top and a -AO. SW trof or your -PNA is fading or smoothed out. SE Ridge is there but not really bulging North.....more elongated. Also showing as slightly weaker. Climo certainly favors the areas you mention and I wont disagree with that. But with a massive sprawling HP trying to ooze out of Canada, it will depend on where the gradient sets up. I do see at LEAST 1 cutter style system next week which is the catalyst to really reload things headed towards Christmas and the week following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: These features are also weakening more in general over the last 24 hours on majority of the ens. Huge EPO still evident with bridge over top and a -AO. SW trof or your -PNA is fading or smoothed out. SE Ridge is there but not really bulging North.....more elongated. Also showing as slightly weaker. Climo certainly favors the areas you mention and I wont disagree with that. But with a massive sprawling HP trying to ooze out of Canada, it will depend on where the gradient sets up. I do see at LEAST 1 cutter style system next week which is the catalyst to really reload things headed towards Christmas and the week following. As depicted, any storms, if cold enough in the low levels, would be an ice storm/freezing rain setup, not a snowstorm setup, isentropic event, at least through Christmas. I hope not, ice storms are the worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Some snow flurries are falling in the Bronx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 4 hours ago, Paragon said: Based on your analysis, Don, that means there were several winters that were more favorable for snowfall than 1995-96 was, but for some reason or other, those patterns didn't fully reach their potential like 1995-96 did? Oh and didn't 1955-56 get 39.2" seasonal snowfall? That's what my weather almanac says (maybe they reanalyzed it)? The only storms in 1995-96 that didn't reach their full potential that I can recall were the Dec 1995 storm where NYC got 8" (prediction was for 15-20") but LGA did get 14" in that one. And the April 1996 storm where 6-12" were predicted and NYC somehow only got 0.7" while JFK got 4.5" Blizzard of January 1996 was more of a case of underreporting at NYC rather than anything else, surrounding stations EWR and LGA both recorded 27-28" and NYC only 20"?! I don't want to say that they were more favorable, but that a number had big potential including but not limited to 1995-96. The coefficient of determination was .62. Of course, a lot of other variables are involved (and it's encouraging to see the GFS showing a stormier pattern in the medium-range and beyond). I used the NWC's seasonal snowfall chart, which shows 33.2". Of course, the chart has at least one typo, as winter 2015-16 had 32.8" snow, not 32.1". Like you, I suspect Central Park underreported during the Blizzard of 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: As depicted, any storms, if cold enough in the low levels, would be an ice storm/freezing rain setup, not a snowstorm setup, isentropic event, at least through Christmas. I hope not, ice storms are the worst ice storms have become rare around here in the past 10-15 yrs...seems it's either big snows or big rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: These features are also weakening more in general over the last 24 hours on majority of the ens. Huge EPO still evident with bridge over top and a -AO. SW trof or your -PNA is fading or smoothed out. SE Ridge is there but not really bulging North.....more elongated. Also showing as slightly weaker. Climo certainly favors the areas you mention and I wont disagree with that. But with a massive sprawling HP trying to ooze out of Canada, it will depend on where the gradient sets up. I do see at LEAST 1 cutter style system next week which is the catalyst to really reload things headed towards Christmas and the week following. Overall, I am feeling pretty optimistic after last night's runs. As we head toward the heart of winter, I am more comfortable taking our chances with a gradient-type pattern, which can be fun at times (think 1993-94). Some help from the Atlantic side would be a plus, but I derive some confidence from the EPO and MJO trends on recent guidance. All in all, I would be surprised if we did not see at least some more appreciable frozen precip before the month closes. Interestingly, if my memory serves me right, December 2013 followed a similar, step-down progression which yielded an impressive snow event just after New Years. Anybody with a better memory/hard data on hand wish to weigh in on the similarity (I could be totally off-base...just musing here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, Brian5671 said: ice storms have become rare around here in the past 10-15 yrs...seems it's either big snows or big rains. I think there was a significant ice storm in interior SW CT January 2009, with many areas receiving 1/2" to 3/4" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 12 minutes ago, TheCloser24 said: I think there was a significant ice storm in interior SW CT January 2009, with many areas receiving 1/2" to 3/4" of ice. I don't remember that one, but I am a few miles from the sound so it was likely rain here or maybe some ice and then a change to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: I don't want to say that they were more favorable, but that a number had big potential including but not limited to 1995-96. The coefficient of determination was .62. Of course, a lot of other variables are involved (and it's encouraging to see the GFS showing a stormier pattern in the medium-range and beyond). I used the NWC's seasonal snowfall chart, which shows 33.2". Of course, the chart has at least one typo, as winter 2015-16 had 32.8" snow, not 32.1". Like you, I suspect Central Park underreported during the Blizzard of 1996. Hey Don I agree on the Blizzard of 96. The snow totals were amazingly consistent here in Fairfield county of 27 inches in Greenwich, Norwalk and Fairfield (except Bridgeport which somehow reported 15). I suspect NYC should have been 27 too given the radar echoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Hey Don I agree on the Blizzard of 96. The snow totals were amazingly consistent here in Fairfield county of 27 inches in Greenwich, Norwalk and Fairfield (except Bridgeport which somehow reported 15). I suspect NYC should have been 27 too given the radar echoes. For a station that chronically under measures, this was the biggest joke of all. I'm 5 miles from there and we had a good 2 feet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Temps underperforming guidance today. Max of 31 in the park apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 8 hours ago, Paragon said: It's going to be a great place to see the April 2024 total solar eclipse as long as the weather holds. How is the 2,308-day forecast looking for April 8, 2024? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 53 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: For a station that chronically under measures, this was the biggest joke of all. I'm 5 miles from there and we had a good 2 feet here. That's why it gets me so upset when Bridgeport is used for all CT shoreline references in historical snowfall. What's worse it has a lower snowfall average than NYC which is of course off due to said measurement shortfalls. Fyi. Fairfield officially had 27 for the 96 blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Be careful with the SE ridge calls it's likely wrong The MJO heads into phase 8 by the 21st and you have a -4 SD EPO That feature may end up a lot weaker than forecast. The 12z GEFS already adjusted away from yesterday's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 36 minutes ago, bluewave said: Remember there can be a lag with the MJO and the 500 mb pattern. EPS around day 10 is a textbook MJO 7. That's if it's even right this far out MJO 8 says otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 31/20 today. -13 Pros, when is our average first day with a max below freezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 12 minutes ago, Snow88 said: That's if it's even right this far out MJO 8 says otherwise Wait is this good or bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 17 minutes ago, Morris said: 31/20 today. -13 Pros, when is our average first day with a max below freezing? Last December it was the 16th. No highs below freezing in 2014 and 2015. December 12th in 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Wait is this good or bad? Could be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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