EastonSN+ Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Cfs shows a cold January Does it show Feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Nice MJO forecast this morning by the GFS It's ensembles drop the EPO off a cliff. More of a reason to know that the brief relaxation day 7 8 9 is just that. Then on to Christmas week , fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Seems like we are one month ahead of the 13-14 winter pattern. We are getting more of a January 2014 pattern in December 2017. Maybe January 2018 will be like February 2014 with the trough pulling back to the west with a colder -EPO/-PNA pattern. The Euro Monthlies had that too. Not the latest one though. The one from last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: What does the latest Euro monthly have for January? IDK. Is it out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: I believe it was out on the 7th. Strange that no one posted it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 11, 2017 Author Share Posted December 11, 2017 Earthlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 21 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: Strange that no one posted it yet. It’s a total miss but so was every model including the EPS for the Saturday storm until the Thursday runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It’s a total miss but so was every model including the EPS for the Saturday storm until the Thursday runs.... I probably would shy away from looking at monthlies for specific storms...but thats just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, BxEngine said: I probably would shy away from looking at monthlies for specific storms...but thats just me. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 16 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Huh? The euro monthly for january that they were discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 32 minutes ago, bluewave said: Continuation of the same theme on the 12z EPS. EPO block trending stronger around Christmas and the NAO more positive. The winning play since the 13-14 winter has been to go long the -EPO and short the -NAO. 12z today 12z yesterday The pacific runs the show. Although I would like to see more of a negative AO that’s still a sweet pattern if it’s right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: The pacific runs the show. Although I would like to see more of a negative AO that’s still a sweet pattern if it’s right Yeah, well be right where we want to be in the battle zone!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: Nearly every -EPO drop of the recent winters has been accompanied by accumulating snow here. It has been a very reliable signal. 21 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Yeah, well be right where we want to be in the battle zone!! Especially as climo increasingly becomes our friend in coming weeks. I cannot remember, what was the ENSO configuration back in the 13-14 winter? Neutral if I recall correctly? Also wondering how the NPM we discussed a few weeks back might factor in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 That's not a bad look, yes the SE ridge could get problematic at times but it may also help us get storms like in 13/14. It's not a KU pattern but I think they'll be plenty of chances for moderate events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That's not a bad look, yes the SE ridge could get problematic at times but it may also help us get storms like in 13/14. It's not a KU pattern but I think they'll be plenty of chances for moderate events. 13-14 was one of my favorite winters and I'd take a repeat in a heartbeat. Seemed like an endless tundra and I personally would forfeit a KU if it meant a greater amount of moderate events and many sleepless nights (I realize that not everybody feels the same on that score). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 32 minutes ago, Eduardo said: 13-14 was one of my favorite winters and I'd take a repeat in a heartbeat. Seemed like an endless tundra and I personally would forfeit a KU if it meant a greater amount of moderate events and many sleepless nights (I realize that not everybody feels the same on that score). Latest EPS weeklies go with the 13-14 theme for the rest of December. But after January 1st, forcing shifts from west of the DL back to the Maritime Continent. This has more of a La Nina look with the PNA eventually going negative in early January. But the weeklies try to hold the -EPO for a time while the PNA goes more negative. So this may be the beginning of the La Nina seasonal ridge pull back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Latest EPS weeklies go with the 13-14 theme for the rest of December. But after January 1st, forcing shifts from west of the DL back to the Maritime Continent. This has more of a La Nina look with the PNA eventually going negative in early January. But the weeklies try to hold the -EPO for a time while the PNA goes more negative. So this may be the beginning of the La Nina seasonal ridge pull back. Yes should that transpire, I'll shift my (weenieish) faith back towards the tendency of early-season high-latitude blocking to predominate through the winter. Isn't that essentially what happened in 05-06? Intense January pullback, followed by a return of winter? Although, I feel like that winter would've gone down as a total letdown were it not for the fortune we had with the February blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Latest EPS weeklies go with the 13-14 theme for the rest of December. But after January 1st, forcing shifts from west of the DL back to the Maritime Continent. This has more of a La Nina look with the PNA eventually going negative in early January. But the weeklies try to hold the -EPO for a time while the PNA goes more negative. So this may be the beginning of the La Nina seasonal ridge pull back. The weeklies are now showing what Isotherm was talking about for January with the forcing shifting and the pattern going to a classic La Niña look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 28 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Yes should that transpire, I'll shift my (weenieish) faith back towards the tendency of early-season high-latitude blocking to predominate through the winter. Isn't that essentially what happened in 05-06? Intense January pullback, followed by a return of winter? Although, I feel like that winter would've gone down as a total letdown were it not for the fortune we had with the February blizzard. we torched most of the winter after the blizzard-the snow melted within 4-5 days with temps in the 50's following the storm. I don't really remember it getting cold after that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Nearly every -EPO drop of the recent winters has been accompanied by accumulating snow here. It has been a very reliable signal. Doesn't that mean more mixed events for us? Could be big inland and more mixed events for the coast. We need some AO/NAO blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 34 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The weeklies are now showing what Isotherm was talking about for January with the forcing shifting and the pattern going to a classic La Niña look Why did he throw Jan 2011 in there lol, that was cold and snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 2 hours ago, Eduardo said: 13-14 was one of my favorite winters and I'd take a repeat in a heartbeat. Seemed like an endless tundra and I personally would forfeit a KU if it meant a greater amount of moderate events and many sleepless nights (I realize that not everybody feels the same on that score). I actually liked 14-15 more. 13-14 was full of mixed events for the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 hour ago, Paragon said: Why did he throw Jan 2011 in there lol, that was cold and snowy. January 2011 is when the blocking completely broke down that winter (10-11). The blocking slowly started to breakdown around mid-month, then by the end of January it was completely gone and never came back again, right through April. Had the blocking stayed around, we almost certainly would have surpassed the 95-96 winter’s snowfall record, we were well on our way in mid January, 2011 before it all collapsed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 13 minutes ago, snowman19 said: January 2011 is when the blocking completely broke down that winter (10-11). The blocking slowly started to breakdown around mid-month, then by the end of January it was completely gone and never came back again, right through April. Had the blocking stayed around, we almost certainly would have surpassed the 95-96 winter’s snowfall record, we were well on our way in mid January, 2011 before it all collapsed most epic winter patterns tend to last 4-6 weeks and that's it--this (10-11) is a classic example. 77-78 had the 3 storms all about 3-4 weeks apart-there was little snow after the big one in early Feb 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTG87 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Snowing at my house now in Sussex County, NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: most epic winter patterns tend to last 4-6 weeks and that's it--this (10-11) is a classic example. 77-78 had the 3 storms all about 3-4 weeks apart-there was little snow after the big one in early Feb 78 2010-11 was a lot like 1960-61, another great winter. That one had the storms spread out more though. Both had three major storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 4 hours ago, Paragon said: I actually liked 14-15 more. 13-14 was full of mixed events for the shore. Yeah those were two of the best back-to-back winters I can remember in my lifetime (although I lived in DC from 2010 to 2013 and saw about four flakes of snow down there throughout..I don't know how those guys down there keep their sanity). The single-digit snowstorm in January 2015 was absolutely incredible. not sure I'll ever see something like that again. I am hoping that we score some decent events throughout the remainder of the holiday season if the pattern really is going to break down afterwards and we start sucking PAC air. Would be difficult to mount a comeback if we end up punting January, absent a great deal of luck in the form of a robust MJO wave, SSW, etc. Right now, just trying to enjoy what's in front of us. Looks like we do have our chances throughout the next few weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Yeah those were two of the best back-to-back winters I can remember in my lifetime (although I lived in DC from 2010 to 2013 and saw about four flakes of snow down there throughout..I don't know how those guys down there keep their sanity). The single-digit snowstorm in January 2015 was absolutely incredible. not sure I'll ever see something like that again. I am hoping that we score some decent events throughout the remainder of the holiday season if the pattern really is going to break down afterwards and we start sucking PAC air. Would be difficult to mount a comeback if we end up punting January, absent a great deal of luck in the form of a robust MJO wave, SSW, etc. Right now, just trying to enjoy what's in front of us. Looks like we do have our chances throughout the next few weeks! I think you would have really liked 2009-10 / 2010-11 too. Also had big heat in the summer in between to keep the whole year exciting lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Next 8 days averaging 34degs., or 2 or 3 degs. BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 ..a 20* temperature RISE @ KFOK this morning ..(me too for that matter). 8pm..25* 6am..45* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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