December 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread

[Morris]

 

[PB GFI]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Gfs shows the complete opposite with massive eastern and W Atlantic ridging for Christmas. It does get a strong -EPO going. 

it's wrong on the E/C

[PB GFI]

58 minutes ago, Paragon said:

It's fine if it's mild in the last 10 days of the month as long as it reloads for early January.

 

it will not be , dont worry 

[The Plowsman]

Models couldnt get the last event right 36 hours out. Anything LR this year is a dartboard toss. Pattern overall looks ok, no major prolonged warmups. MJO forecast is good. We dont need extreme teleconnection indices to get snow. Overwhelming cold can be our enemy.....seasonal to just BN is our friend.

Lol.....Any Year!!

[Paragon]

3 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

it will not be , dont worry 

Paul do you think there's a chance we could see a delay in the pattern and have it be more like 1995-96 with a big storm in early January rather than the last week of December like we had in 2010?

 

 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

It's an op run in the long range

You should know better to take the ops run with a grain of salt in the long range. Ensembles are the way to go.

I didn't say it was correct, just pointing out another solution. The EPS is probably right, the amount of cold it's showing in the LR can't be ignored and the MJO in phases 7&8 is a big deal.  

Itll be interesting to see what happens, yesterday's snows were a very good sign moving forward.

[PB GFI]

10 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Paul do you think there's a chance we could see a delay in the pattern and have it be more like 1995-96 with a big storm in early January rather than the last week of December like we had in 2010?

 

 

The MJO is going into phase 7 and 8 , there's only a low height ridge in the SE day 7 - 9 the  2 meter anomalies are probably plus 3 for those 3 days.

Then you can see the deep negative roll south of the Aleutians and that will send the ridge on the west coast poleward.

This time Arctic highs will connect from the pole all the way into the CONUS.

The Vortex will drop into the Hudson Bay 

A deep trough will dig in day 11 - 17 whether there's a storm or not I can't be certain but the ingredients are there so we will have to wait

 

[nzucker]

8 hours ago, PB GFI said:

The MJO is going into phase 7 and 8 , there's only a low height ridge in the SE day 7 - 9 the  2 meter anomalies are probably plus 3 for those 3 days.

Then you can see the deep negative roll south of the Aleutians and that will send the ridge on the west coast poleward.

This time Arctic highs will connect from the pole all the way into the CONUS.

The Vortex will drop into the Hudson Bay 

A deep trough will dig in day 11 - 17 whether there's a storm or not I can't be certain but the ingredients are there so we will have to wait

 

YES! Perfectly said...the tendency for a -EPO this winter (due to stratospheric and ENSO factors) is enhanced by the MJO moving into Phase 7-8, and that ridge gains amplitude around Day 8-10. You can see on the GFS that a 1050mb arctic high extends all the way from eastern AK to the Plains...-25C PV drops into Hudson Bay. Should see a lot of shortwaves running into the confluence created by the strong polar vortex...looks active in the long-range, too. 

There IS some resistance from the Atlantic as the NAO is not super negative...that SE ridge may occasionally try to build. We might see an ice threat at some point too if a storm does decide to track inland with that 1050mb arctic high to the north.

[Rtd208]

Snowing lightly here, temp 32

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 36degs., or about 2degs. BN.

[SnoSki14]

You gotta love how models always seem to torch on Christmas, gfs has 70F for the 24th. 

[KEITH L.I]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You gotta love how models always seem to torch on Christmas, gfs has 70F for the 24th. 

It was 25 on the 0z run..thought it was comical lol

[SnowGoose69]

57 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You gotta love how models always seem to torch on Christmas, gfs has 70F for the 24th. 

There is going to be a cutter somewhere around the 20th-25th in all likelihood as the trof reloads into the east.  The Euro Op and EPS has been hinting at that several runs in a row.  The Op GFS has wanted to make the progression slower though while the Euro has mostly wanted to blast the cutter quickly from the front range into Quebec within 60-72 hours with the trof back in the east 

[PB GFI]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

You gotta love how models always seem to torch on Christmas, gfs has 70F for the 24th. 

"Models" ?

 

The EPS and Canadian disagree 

 

[PB GFI]

20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There is going to be a cutter somewhere around the 20th-25th in all likelihood as the trof reloads into the east.  The Euro Op and EPS has been hinting at that several runs in a row.  The Op GFS has wanted to make the progression slower though while the Euro has mostly wanted to blast the cutter quickly from the front range into Quebec within 60-72 hours with the trof back in the east 

There's definitely a cutter and the warm up is 2 or 3 days

Only plus a couple but the snow cover E of 95 will be gone before Christmas and then we will need the Control run to save us.

[SnowGoose69]

I still believe the pattern flips somewhere in mid January and either never comes back or rarely comes back the rest of the way.  But knowing the way things have gone the last 10 years we probably will still find a way to snow even if it torches from 1/15-3/30

[snowman19]

14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I still believe the pattern flips somewhere in mid January and either never comes back or rarely comes back the rest of the way.  But knowing the way things have gone the last 10 years we probably will still find a way to snow even if it torches from 1/15-3/30

Isotherm was hinting at the same thing, January and especially February going above normal to well above normal. Usually March’s in Nina’s are above normal as well (front end loaded) 

[Brian5671]

37 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

There's definitely a cutter and the warm up is 2 or 3 days

Only plus a couple but the snow cover E of 95 will be gone before Christmas and then we will need the Control run to save us.

alot of it will go today and tomorrow....upton's got near 40 today with sun and mid 40's tomorrow with rain.

[Brian5671]

19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I still believe the pattern flips somewhere in mid January and either never comes back or rarely comes back the rest of the way.  But knowing the way things have gone the last 10 years we probably will still find a way to snow even if it torches from 1/15-3/30

That would be a downer, but heck, last year was a torch and we got snow every time there was a cold shot.    I'd settle for that again.

[PB GFI]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

alot of it will go today and tomorrow....upton's got near 40 today with sun and mid 40's tomorrow with rain.

No one should care. The EPO goes nuts after the 17th and the warm up is 2 days 

[PB GFI]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Isotherm was hinting at the same thing, January and especially February going above normal to well above normal. Usually March’s in Nina’s are above normal as well (front end loaded) 

Who cares 

[EastonSN+]

21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I still believe the pattern flips somewhere in mid January and either never comes back or rarely comes back the rest of the way.  But knowing the way things have gone the last 10 years we probably will still find a way to snow even if it torches from 1/15-3/30

Out of curiosity did the Monthlies show this?

[PB GFI]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The +NAO may actually keep the storm  track nearby. Without it, the TPV over HB would probably suppress the storm track too far to our south. So the Arctic cold probably centers over the Great Lakes like we saw in January 2014. Sometime from later December into early January there will either be a SWFE overrunning or Arctic wave that develops just off the East Coast. Maybe we get a variety of events.

 

I love the EPO and MJO for that entire week 

The PNA will respond and I like the Arctic wave up the coast better 

[MJO812]

Cfs shows a cold January

 

[PB GFI]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It's really impressive how the forcing and blocking pattern is so similar to January 2014. You can see the 2 big Arctic wave events that month for us.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2014/us0103.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2014/us0121.php

Thats why when looking at all that cold water in the EPAC and the warmer water S of the Aleutians I am hesitant of all the warm Jan calls.

Just as I was for November and then December.

But I will wait to see what the I/O convection looks like in late December 

[donsutherland1]

14 hours ago, Paragon said:

Don, it's impressive that only one of those winters was under 40"!

Median is right around 50" With 3 in the 40s, and 3 in the 50s!

 

It will be interesting to see how things evolve. Additional accumulating snowfall later this month would reinforce this possible signal.

[MJO812]

The EPO is going to freefall next week.

[Eduardo]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Did you get a chance to look at the updated ECMWF monthly  Jan 500 mb map yet? Haven't seen much posted on it even though it came out last week.

Let's assume some of us haven't yet, Chris .  Care to summarize?

[PB GFI]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Did you get a chance to look at the updated ECMWF monthly  Jan 500 mb map yet? Haven't seen much posted on it even though it came out last week.

I believe it leans the trough back into the midwest and west.

but I haven't seen the whole hemisphere

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Thanks. You would think in a La Nina the trend would be to shift to more of a -PNA from mid-January into February. But it could really be a battle this year with the amount of blocking so far over Western North America. And then we have the MJO wild card as usual which will further modulate the pattern.

That's our wildcard this year.   Great blocking early on is often a good sign for the winter as a whole.