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December 2017 Discussion


snowlover2

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40 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Nah, like 75%.  There's a decent signal for dynamic cooling.  Boundary layer/ground temps are the question, but like we say, it will accumulate anywhere at any time if the rates are heavy enough. 

The rates are the issue for me, it just doesn't look overly impressive with heavy rates.

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On 12/6/2017 at 5:11 PM, Stebo said:

The rates are the issue for me, it just doesn't look overly impressive with heavy rates.

I guess we'll see.  GFS/Euro have been way less bullish than the NAM.  I'd definitely cut those NAM amounts, but that still leaves room for smaller accumulations.

Powerball, you'll have to go to the store and give us a report on the bread and milk situation.

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7 hours ago, Jonger said:

It looks like a -5F to -8F December.

Transient..... 

we can't even see the end of this on any model. It just keeps reloading.

It’s not hard to get temps in the 20s in December. It’s cold and it sucks, but this looks like run of the mill stuff for December. 

December will definitely not finish with -8 departures unless you can erase the first five days of the month... I’m wondering if this month will even finish below normal.

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5 hours ago, Jonger said:

You get your chances here, but the lack of a trail system is tough on me.

Snowshoeing sucks IMO, but you really need deep snow for that.

Downhill skiing sucks in Michigan IMO too, but it gets you out of the house.

Cross country seems to be popular. You will always see c.c. tracks all over the place in winter. I love good old fashioned sitting my butt on a sled or taking a winter hike.

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I know it isn't in this region but the extreme fire conditions in California for tonight and tomorrow are really getting concerning. Could be one of the worst days in years if everything is realized tonight. I am sure everyone saw the video from the 405 this morning, near Bel Air.

Here is the video just in case you didn't see it:

 

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5 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I know it isn't in this region but the extreme fire conditions in California for tonight and tomorrow are really getting concerning. Could be one of the worst days in years if everything is realized tonight. I am sure everyone saw the video from the 405 this morning, near Bel Air.

Here is the video just in case you didn't see it:

 

Yeah that vid is crazy.  Can't imagine.  It has really gotten dry there (again) in the past several months.

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11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah that vid is crazy.  Can't imagine.  It has really gotten dry there (again) in the past several months.

I heard from somebody who lives there that the worst fire years are the year after wet winters. The wet winters bring a bloom of vegetation that invariably dries out as the weather pattern changes.  There is then plentiful dry tinder for fires in all directions.

It also seems like there is only two conditions there, wet for short periods and dry the majority of the time, there really is no in between with the climate and terrain of a lot of California.

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21 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Looks like all of the models are starting to narrow in on amounts between 2-3" here, which would be impressive if it happens.

NAM and GFS suggest an inch or greater of QPF. So this has potential.

Atlanta potentially seeing an inch of snow before we do, who woulda thought?

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