IWXwx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 5 hours ago, cmillzz said: Looks rather transient to me. Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 It looks like a -5F to -8F December. Transient..... we can't even see the end of this on any model. It just keeps reloading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: Considering the overamped ridging has already been pulled back once on the GFS, I would ignore it. This pattern setup is not good for it. Looks like by 144hrs, its starting to overamp again. No cross polar flow and a lack of snowcover will hold departures in check. How do we know there will be a lack of snowcover at 144 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: How do we know there will be a lack of snowcover at 144 hrs? Yeah, we will be laying down some snow in the coming days, even though it won't be huge amounts outside of the lake belts. The cold will wax and wane, but overall there is not much to suggest it won't be below average overall for most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 On 11/27/2017 at 4:42 PM, Stebo said: Also had moderation repeatedly. Hey you do you, but the pattern isn't good even for what you are looking for. On 11/27/2017 at 4:39 PM, Stebo said: If it is a dry flow then no it doesn't which that pattern would be ridge riding flow not trough sliding. It would still be a Pacific dominated flow regime just moderated slightly. In other words a continuation of the last few weeks. wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jonger said: wrong. Down this way it is right actually. We haven't had **** here neither has the west side of the state except up north. Go enjoy up there instead of trying to troll bump. Also mind you the pattern ended up changing since then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, Stebo said: Down this way it is right actually. We haven't had **** here neither has the west side of the state except up north. Go enjoy up there instead of trying to troll bump. Also mind you the pattern ended up changing since then... The next 2 weeks look amazing everywhere. Maybe not Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Down this way it is right actually. We haven't had **** here neither has the west side of the state except up north. Go enjoy up there instead of trying to troll bump. Oh but Stebo, your clippers are coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Down this way it is right actually. We haven't had **** here neither has the west side of the state except up north. Go enjoy up there instead of trying to troll bump. Also mind you the pattern ended up changing since then... Several shots of snow appear to be coming for southern Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, Hoosier said: Oh but Stebo, your clippers are coming. I will believe them when I see snow on the ground, right now I see a couple dusty clippers that have no moisture to work with. Not exactly excitement. 1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: Several shots of snow appear to be coming for southern Michigan Thank god for the eternal optimist though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: I will believe them when I see snow on the ground, right now I see a couple dusty clippers that have no moisture to work with. Not exactly excitement. Thank god for the eternal optimist though. Lol it wouldn't be a winter on the weather boards if I wasn't called an optimist for stating a fact. Although I suppose it is possible that every single model is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Drive to the snow. Find a hobby that requires snow and you won't give a **** about snow at your own home. Skiing, XC skiing, snowshoeing, snowmobiling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Jonger said: Drive to the snow. Find a hobby that requires snow and you won't give a **** about snow at your own home. Skiing, XC skiing, snowshoeing, snowmobiling Its not easy for most people to up and leave at the drop of a hat. Though you can do all of that here during winter except snowmobile trails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Its not easy for most people to up and leave at the drop of a hat. Though you can do all of that here during winter except snowmobile trails. You get your chances here, but the lack of a trail system is tough on me. Snowshoeing sucks IMO, but you really need deep snow for that. Downhill skiing sucks in Michigan IMO too, but it gets you out of the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Jonger said: Drive to the snow. Find a hobby that requires snow and you won't give a **** about snow at your own home. Skiing, XC skiing, snowshoeing, snowmobiling I care about tracking the system and the meteorology behind it not to mention I also work for a living and would prefer to use my vacation on things I can enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Lol it wouldn't be a winter on the weather boards if I wasn't called an optimist for stating a fact. Although I suppose it is possible that every single model is wrong. They are chances for one and they are also days out in a highly variable pattern on the backside of a huge upper low. Notice how the locations and timing of the clippers are all over the place? Even at that what is it going to amount to, 5 inches by the end of next week all in penny or nickel form? That doesn't move the needle here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Considering the overamped ridging has already been pulled back once on the GFS, I would ignore it. This pattern setup is not good for it. Looks like by 144hrs, its starting to overamp again. No cross polar flow and a lack of snowcover will hold departures in check.He's correct until the weather gives us reason not to believe. Given recent winter weather trends for much of this forum going back to last winter it's safe and easy to downplay any forecast of an extended cold and snowy pattern. Do prefer the flip of ridge west/trough east in early to mid December as opposed to last winter when it did the reverse after early cold and snow in the midwest.Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 15 minutes ago, Stebo said: They are chances for one and they are also days out in a highly variable pattern on the backside of a huge upper low. Notice how the locations and timing of the clippers are all over the place? Even at that what is it going to amount to, 5 inches by the end of next week all in penny or nickel form? That doesn't move the needle here. Howell, maybe -- eastpoint, probably not. Anyhow, SE Michigan isn't known to be a winter playground. This state is pretty top notch for snow and this pattern is the reason why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, Angrysummons said: Again, the troughing is there, the models simply overamp it and over drop 2m temps to far. There is nothing new with that. Even in 2013-14 they did the same thing. But that was the real McCoy and when it came in, it was still cold. As Hoosier has said several times, trust a model after 5 days at your own risk. I'm always skeptical of storms more than 5 days out. At 10 days out, I trust there will be a storm, but where and how strong.... that's the big mystery. Weather patterns, I trust almost 15 days out, to a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Again, the troughing is there, the models simply overamp it and over drop 2m temps to far. There is nothing new with that. Even in 2013-14 they did the same thing. But that was the real McCoy and when it came in, it was still cold. As Hoosier has said several times, trust a model after 5 days at your own risk.Again, you are correct until the weather gives us a reason to give favor to a different result. Betting against cold and snow for extended periods continues to be an easy call, until we see a sustained and locked in pattern that favors it. As you say this probably is not it.Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 If i were betting, I wouldn't bet against colder than average in the means for the next couple weeks. We are talking on average, which doesn't rule out brief warmer than average spikes. There is basically unanimous model/ensemble support. I'm always hesitant to go beyond a couple weeks. Snowfall is more of a crapshoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 36 minutes ago, Hoosier said: If i were betting, I wouldn't bet against colder than average in the means for the next couple weeks. We are talking on average, which doesn't rule out brief warmer than average spikes. There is basically unanimous model/ensemble support. I'm always hesitant to go beyond a couple weeks. Snowfall is more of a crapshoot. Agreed, cold is locked in for at least 10-12 days, the longer range models try to break things down a bit then but only to a zonal pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Definitely looks like the cold is planning to stick around for the next 10-14 days or so. Unfortunately without much of an SE ridge, there's not much in the way of storm chances for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 On a bright note the ground here at home has a one inch crust of frost on the top layer. I suspect over the upcoming days the ground will firm up a bit more then some snow. My skeptical alarm is ringing as I'm watching the models unfold. Saturdays system will be the bar standard of the upcoming few weeks. We will get to see if the GFS sniffer is working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, DAFF said: On a bright note the ground here at home has a one inch crust of frost on the top layer. I suspect over the upcoming days the ground will firm up a bit more then some snow. My skeptical alarm is ringing as I'm watching the models unfold. Saturdays system will be the bar standard of the upcoming few weeks. We will get to see if the GFS sniffer is working. Temperature locally doesn't look to go above freezing for the next 7-10 days... possibly longer. Should definitely help the ground cool. Also very interested in the Saturday system. Its been trending consistently a little better the last few days so we'll see if that comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Some may get a good laugh out of this. The tiny red star is my location: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I am upping the chances to 5% for something to fall and accumulate down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Powerball said: Some may get a good laugh out of this. The tiny red star is my location: Yeah I've been following that system (posted in banter thread). People will be freaking out if a quarter of that falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: I am upping the chances to 5% for something to fall and accumulate down south. I'd go way higher on the odds of accumulation. The big question is how much, and obviously there are a number of factors to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, Hoosier said: I'd go way higher on the odds of accumulation. The big question is how much, and obviously there are a number of factors to consider. Fine 15% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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