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December 2017 Discussion


snowlover2

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Looking forward to the Monday system.  Should get some much needed rain Monday evening and hopefully a clap or two of thunder.  Seems like it's been forever since convection has visited the DVN cwa.  Unfortunately the cyclonic flow around the quickly strengthening storm system pulls north into Canada so not expecting any flurries on the backside.  Looks like some snow chances beyond that though.  Have only seen it snow once, back on Nov 12th, so it will be nice to see flakes flying again.

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I cut the grass one last time yesterday and put the driveway markers in so I'm ready for winter to get going starting next week hopefully. From what I have been reading is we don't know how long this cold wave will last, some say maybe a week, some say thru Christmas maybe? Anyone have any thoughts that know and study weather a heck of a lot better then me? Any thoughts on what areas of the great lakes/ohio valley states that will be having a white Christmas this year?

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21 for a low with light fog at times.  One last day of weather boredom.

I have never experienced a more tranquil, tedious, pattern in the N lakes to end Nov and start Dec... so ready for something else.  Last night I dreamed the patter change wasn't happening. :lol:

This mornings look out back... still traces of snow, but while out and about, I don't really see much snow on the ground except in obscure shaded areas and small piles, of course.  The potential for a half inch of rain and temps spiking to 48, will erase all that's left in my little corner.  Ready to start fresh, and the anticipation for me is off the charts!

IMG_3854.thumb.jpg.738cd28ec1b274a1b4b1415465bd50f9.jpg

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MLI should break 60 today.  Had a long way to go to get there as they started off at 23 early this morning.  They jumped 12 degrees between 9 and 10am, and have yet to mix out the cool near-surface layer.  DVN is at a slightly higher elevation, and has already jumped ahead of MLI.  Record highs for today/tomorrow look off the table, as they are 69/71 respectively.  Should make the low 60s today, and perhaps upper 60s tomorrow.  

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31 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

MLI should break 60 today.  Had a long way to go to get there as they started off at 23 early this morning.  They jumped 12 degrees between 9 and 10am, and have yet to mix out the cool near-surface layer.  DVN is at a slightly higher elevation, and has already jumped ahead of MLI.  Record highs for today/tomorrow look off the table, as they are 69/71 respectively.  Should make the low 60s today, and perhaps upper 60s tomorrow.  

Would be interesting to hit 70 without any sun.  I would imagine that is pushing the bounds of what's possible at these latitudes in December though.

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14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Would be interesting to hit 70 without any sun.  I would imagine that is pushing the bounds of what's possible at these latitudes in December though.

Yeah that would be awesome.  HRRRx does have a few sites in southeast IA getting pretty close to 70.  Hopefully the clouds remain the high/thin type.  Looks like the precip will be confined to just a narrow band of convection with the front, so maybe not so much low to mid-level clouds out in the open warm sector.

MLI has jumped 25 degrees between 9 and 11am, from 29 to 54.  Very impressive.

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Since the 00z runs last night, I think this pattern has trended in a way such that those outside the lake belts may not actually see very much snow, and this cold dome may not be as persistent as it once was. Again, the Euro is bringing back in the warm air by the end of its run, and the GFS flattens out towards a bit more of a zonal look(which may not be too bad, all things considered). With the exception of fairly well advertised clipper at the end of this week, and maybe a few other weak impulses out of the NW, looks all quiet on the western front. That said, the lakes stand to do quite well in a pattern such as this.

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1 hour ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Since the 00z runs last night, I think this pattern has trended in a way such that those outside the lake belts may not actually see very much snow, and this cold dome may not be as persistent as it once was. Again, the Euro is bringing back in the warm air by the end of its run, and the GFS flattens out towards a bit more of a zonal look(which may not be too bad, all things considered). With the exception of fairly well advertised clipper at the end of this week, and maybe a few other weak impulses out of the NW, looks all quiet on the western front. That said, the lakes stand to do quite well in a pattern such as this.

I guess this is why the UP averages 250+ inches in spots and you average 25 to 30 inches.

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22 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

That area looks awesome. 

I love pointed firs.

There are firs around but mostly its tamarack/spruce taiga/cat tail swamps mixed with popplar (don't call them aspen around here) and some red/white pines on the "higher" ground.  There is also a decent amount of soybean/sunflower/wheat agriculture land to the west of Baudette until you hit the Red River valley then its all ag land.  The one thing that lacks around Baudette is hills, its FLAT here, I have to get east of IFalls find any kind of elevation changes.

As far as the impeding storm I just hope somebody in minnesota north of highway 2 can get some double digit amounts with it.  If its me, all the better.  I can't really ask for a better scenario than some of the model runs over the last couple days.  Its just wait and see if the storm actually produces or if its all a fantasy of the computers.

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1 hour ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Since the 00z runs last night, I think this pattern has trended in a way such that those outside the lake belts may not actually see very much snow, and this cold dome may not be as persistent as it once was. Again, the Euro is bringing back in the warm air by the end of its run, and the GFS flattens out towards a bit more of a zonal look(which may not be too bad, all things considered). With the exception of fairly well advertised clipper at the end of this week, and maybe a few other weak impulses out of the NW, looks all quiet on the western front. That said, the lakes stand to do quite well in a pattern such as this.

Well said. Looks mediocre at best for us. 

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Just now, (((Will))) said:

Yeah, it is. But also, I assume, because the lake effect is only getting started when he wsw ends.

That makes sense. I've seen WWAs in Detroit for 4-7". The nws has all these weird quirks on deciding warnings vs advisories which don't make sense. But that's my soapbox as yours is forecast discussion tone lol

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12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Notice what Will posted... it's one of the first examples of what doing away with a Blizzard Watch looks like.

This. Without a Blizzard Watch product, a WSW is issued and then becomes either an Advisory or a Blizzard Warning. It's gonna be a Warning.

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2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

I will miss the ominous nature of the blizzard watch.  Sounds a lot more menacing than a "run of the mill" winter storm watch, which is relatively common in the winter.

59 the high here today, and 61 at MLI.

I still miss the snow advisory.  I am annoyed when I see winter weather advisory and have to figure out if its for up to 4" of snow or a chance of mixed/freezing rain.

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