Hoosier Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 I think western areas may have a shot at 70 on Monday. Say from about central Iowa south... perhaps spilling into western IL. The clouds do add some uncertainty though so not a lot of confidence. Any period of sun would make it more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: Solid afd by LOT's RC. He has been slamming some gems out the last few days. Always enjoy reading his and Izzi’s AFD’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Looking forward to the Monday system. Should get some much needed rain Monday evening and hopefully a clap or two of thunder. Seems like it's been forever since convection has visited the DVN cwa. Unfortunately the cyclonic flow around the quickly strengthening storm system pulls north into Canada so not expecting any flurries on the backside. Looks like some snow chances beyond that though. Have only seen it snow once, back on Nov 12th, so it will be nice to see flakes flying again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 I cut the grass one last time yesterday and put the driveway markers in so I'm ready for winter to get going starting next week hopefully. From what I have been reading is we don't know how long this cold wave will last, some say maybe a week, some say thru Christmas maybe? Anyone have any thoughts that know and study weather a heck of a lot better then me? Any thoughts on what areas of the great lakes/ohio valley states that will be having a white Christmas this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 21 for a low with light fog at times. One last day of weather boredom. I have never experienced a more tranquil, tedious, pattern in the N lakes to end Nov and start Dec... so ready for something else. Last night I dreamed the patter change wasn't happening. This mornings look out back... still traces of snow, but while out and about, I don't really see much snow on the ground except in obscure shaded areas and small piles, of course. The potential for a half inch of rain and temps spiking to 48, will erase all that's left in my little corner. Ready to start fresh, and the anticipation for me is off the charts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 16 hours ago, Hoosier said: Evening shot out my window lol. Looking southwest. Yeah, there are still some leaves putting up a good fight. I'm in Chicago and though it is 98% bare I have noticed a few odd trees clinging for dear life to some dead leaves lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 I'm curious, what is the verification rate of the ensembles after 200 hours versus operational models? Strictly based on air pattern forecasts and temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 MLI should break 60 today. Had a long way to go to get there as they started off at 23 early this morning. They jumped 12 degrees between 9 and 10am, and have yet to mix out the cool near-surface layer. DVN is at a slightly higher elevation, and has already jumped ahead of MLI. Record highs for today/tomorrow look off the table, as they are 69/71 respectively. Should make the low 60s today, and perhaps upper 60s tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: I'm in Chicago and though it is 98% bare I have noticed a few odd trees clinging for dear life to some dead leaves lol Yep. You'd think the wind tomorrow would take care of what's left and if not, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 31 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: MLI should break 60 today. Had a long way to go to get there as they started off at 23 early this morning. They jumped 12 degrees between 9 and 10am, and have yet to mix out the cool near-surface layer. DVN is at a slightly higher elevation, and has already jumped ahead of MLI. Record highs for today/tomorrow look off the table, as they are 69/71 respectively. Should make the low 60s today, and perhaps upper 60s tomorrow. Would be interesting to hit 70 without any sun. I would imagine that is pushing the bounds of what's possible at these latitudes in December though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Would be interesting to hit 70 without any sun. I would imagine that is pushing the bounds of what's possible at these latitudes in December though. Yeah that would be awesome. HRRRx does have a few sites in southeast IA getting pretty close to 70. Hopefully the clouds remain the high/thin type. Looks like the precip will be confined to just a narrow band of convection with the front, so maybe not so much low to mid-level clouds out in the open warm sector. MLI has jumped 25 degrees between 9 and 11am, from 29 to 54. Very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Since the 00z runs last night, I think this pattern has trended in a way such that those outside the lake belts may not actually see very much snow, and this cold dome may not be as persistent as it once was. Again, the Euro is bringing back in the warm air by the end of its run, and the GFS flattens out towards a bit more of a zonal look(which may not be too bad, all things considered). With the exception of fairly well advertised clipper at the end of this week, and maybe a few other weak impulses out of the NW, looks all quiet on the western front. That said, the lakes stand to do quite well in a pattern such as this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 hour ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Since the 00z runs last night, I think this pattern has trended in a way such that those outside the lake belts may not actually see very much snow, and this cold dome may not be as persistent as it once was. Again, the Euro is bringing back in the warm air by the end of its run, and the GFS flattens out towards a bit more of a zonal look(which may not be too bad, all things considered). With the exception of fairly well advertised clipper at the end of this week, and maybe a few other weak impulses out of the NW, looks all quiet on the western front. That said, the lakes stand to do quite well in a pattern such as this. I guess this is why the UP averages 250+ inches in spots and you average 25 to 30 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XfireLOW Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 22 hours ago, (((Will))) said: That area looks awesome. I love pointed firs. There are firs around but mostly its tamarack/spruce taiga/cat tail swamps mixed with popplar (don't call them aspen around here) and some red/white pines on the "higher" ground. There is also a decent amount of soybean/sunflower/wheat agriculture land to the west of Baudette until you hit the Red River valley then its all ag land. The one thing that lacks around Baudette is hills, its FLAT here, I have to get east of IFalls find any kind of elevation changes. As far as the impeding storm I just hope somebody in minnesota north of highway 2 can get some double digit amounts with it. If its me, all the better. I can't really ask for a better scenario than some of the model runs over the last couple days. Its just wait and see if the storm actually produces or if its all a fantasy of the computers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 hour ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Since the 00z runs last night, I think this pattern has trended in a way such that those outside the lake belts may not actually see very much snow, and this cold dome may not be as persistent as it once was. Again, the Euro is bringing back in the warm air by the end of its run, and the GFS flattens out towards a bit more of a zonal look(which may not be too bad, all things considered). With the exception of fairly well advertised clipper at the end of this week, and maybe a few other weak impulses out of the NW, looks all quiet on the western front. That said, the lakes stand to do quite well in a pattern such as this. Well said. Looks mediocre at best for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 I'm wondering if it' because of the winds...im really surprised the Keewenaw issues a WSW for 4-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Just now, (((Will))) said: Yeah, it is. But also, I assume, because the lake effect is only getting started when he wsw ends. That makes sense. I've seen WWAs in Detroit for 4-7". The nws has all these weird quirks on deciding warnings vs advisories which don't make sense. But that's my soapbox as yours is forecast discussion tone lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Notice what Will posted... it's one of the first examples of what doing away with a Blizzard Watch looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Notice what Will posted... it's one of the first examples of what doing away with a Blizzard Watch looks like. This. Without a Blizzard Watch product, a WSW is issued and then becomes either an Advisory or a Blizzard Warning. It's gonna be a Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 I will miss the ominous nature of the blizzard watch. Sounds a lot more menacing than a "run of the mill" winter storm watch, which is relatively common in the winter. 59 the high here today, and 61 at MLI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 3 hours ago, IllinoisWedges said: Well said. Looks mediocre at best for us. Yep, but it’s a start. Get the ground cold and hopefully have a good setup to get a white Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XfireLOW Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 2 hours ago, cyclone77 said: I will miss the ominous nature of the blizzard watch. Sounds a lot more menacing than a "run of the mill" winter storm watch, which is relatively common in the winter. 59 the high here today, and 61 at MLI. I still miss the snow advisory. I am annoyed when I see winter weather advisory and have to figure out if its for up to 4" of snow or a chance of mixed/freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Tonight's Full Moon in Findlay. Noticed the shadow around the moon too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 HRRR gust map looks fairly impressive at 17z tomorrow. This is knots so some areas are 45-50 mph on here. Question will be how much effect the expected cloudiness has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Low pressure beginning to develop tonight in the Northern Plains that will be affecting Northwest Ohio tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 I also notice that the HRRR has a 66 at ORD by 20z. Could they even have a shot at 70 perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, cmillzz said: I also notice that the HRRR has a 66 at ORD by 20z. Could they even have a shot at 70 perhaps? I'd be surprised. Better shot farther south/west in IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 I also notice that the HRRR has a 66 at ORD by 20z. Could they even have a shot at 70 perhaps? No chance of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 As mentioned above, the latest HRRR has solid mid-60's tomorrow. Record for Chicago tomorrow is 66 (1998). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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