RogueWaves Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 LOL -did anyone see the GFS flashing 57" snowstorm in SD earlier? Gotta love extra LR models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 The event around the 5th is starting to pique my interest a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 1 hour ago, RogueWaves said: On 11/27/2017 at 4:00 PM, Hoosier said: That is a monthly map though, so it would not necessarily reflect things happening on a weekly or subweekly scale. The hope would be to get a shot or two at a juicier system if/when the trough relaxes. Here's an example... this monthly map looks like it would be awful/dry, and we got GHD2 out of it. Now I'm not necessarily suggesting a repeat. You could say that the GHD-2 ingredients were coming together as January ended. After that storm, it was mostly cold and suppressed Ok, what about this? A very cold month that was rather active and of course featured the Dec 11 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Ok, what about this? A very cold month that was rather active and of course featured the Dec 11 storm. Problem is these are exceptions to the rule. For every super cold month that is active you probably can find 3 or 4 that aren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 The 540 line plunging way down to near the Gulf Coast possibly next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 1 hour ago, Jim Martin said: The 540 line plunging way down to near the Gulf Coast possibly next week. That SW flow lake band gets me excited. That would be a ridiculously strong band if it came to fruition, chase worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 29, 2017 Author Share Posted November 29, 2017 2 hours ago, Jim Martin said: The 540 line plunging way down to near the Gulf Coast possibly next week. 0z Euro also unleashing the frigid air by days 9 and 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 I'm starting to think this month may be epic. Yes, I'm dragging out the e-word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 I grew up in northern Illinois and now live on the Florida panhandle. I'll be visiting in two weeks. It's weird how, even after just one winter living in Florida, even just a few inches of snow would be exciting to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 1 hour ago, Jonger said: I'm starting to think this month may be epic. Yes, I'm dragging out the e-word. That's such a steep hill to climb for my area. Dec 2000 set the bar so high. Something like last December but not running outta gas would be welcomed tho. Calhoun County's primary data site is BC5NW. This map's slightly out of date, they since bumped that 54" up to 55.2" iirc. I'd be thrilled with anything between last year and '00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Love/hate with Dec 2000. 50" was UP lite like. Then the calendar flipped and it was like living in central Ohio the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 34 minutes ago, UMB WX said: Love/hate with Dec 2000. 50" was UP lite like. Then the calendar flipped and it was like living in central Ohio the rest of the winter. Yep. I remember Tim and I complaining about it on Wright Weather. The weird thing is that Jan/Feb weren't really a torch overall, but man did those months do almost everything possible to avoid snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 I regret not taking pics in Dec 2000. I have weather pics of stuff from before then but not Dec 2000 for some reason. I had never seen so much snow on the ground at my house. The piles were huge and it seemed like we were running out of places to put the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 We had about 24 to 30 inches on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 2 hours ago, Stebo said: This is where the trough needs to setup, just far enough west to open up the door for stuff to slide northeast and phase with the northern stream vs being crushed by it or phasing on the east coast. I can agree with this. As I said the other day, cold sets the table for everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 yup good 30" on the ground to bring in the new yr. No pics either but those mounds and walk paths in the yard for the pets will stay in my head until the day I pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 3 hours ago, RogueWaves said: That's such a steep hill to climb for my area. Dec 2000 set the bar so high. Something like last December but not running outta gas would be welcomed tho. Calhoun County's primary data site is BC5NW. This map's slightly out of date, they since bumped that 54" up to 55.2" iirc. I'd be thrilled with anything between last year and '00 Thanks for posting this. Are there other snowfall maps like this for different years? Very interesting to see such variable amounts all over the Midwest...even outside of the lake snowbelts. Only an inch or two in several areas of northern Wisconsin, while the next town over recorded 2 feet. It looks like there was a solid system path going from Iowa through Southern WI and northern IL, over through southern Michigan. And...only 18 inches in Gaylord?! Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 3 hours ago, RogueWaves said: That's such a steep hill to climb for my area. Dec 2000 set the bar so high. Something like last December but not running outta gas would be welcomed tho. Calhoun County's primary data site is BC5NW. This map's slightly out of date, they since bumped that 54" up to 55.2" iirc. I'd be thrilled with anything between last year and '00 Thought the fact that I couldn't remember much about December 2000 was because those were some pretty crazy times back then, but now after seeing this map maybe that's why lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 55 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Thought the fact that I couldn't remember much about December 2000 was because those were some pretty crazy times back then, but now after seeing this map maybe that's why lol. Nausea inducing screw hole there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Thought the fact that I couldn't remember much about December 2000 was because those were some pretty crazy times back then, but now after seeing this map maybe that's why lol.Is that map incorrect? According to NOW Data, Moline had 32" that month, the Morrison COOP had 22", Mt Carroll COOP 26.3", and DeWitt, IA COOP 23", so it seems likely there's an error with the map rather than there being a localized screw zone. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 This map isn't perfect but it doesn't have some of those ridiculously low totals right next to the much higher totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 42 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Is that map incorrect? According to NOW Data, Moline had 32" that month, the Morrison COOP had 22", Mt Carroll COOP 26.3", and DeWitt, IA COOP 23", so it seems likely there's an error with the map rather than there being a localized screw zone. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Ah sweet. Yeah that's certainly a lot better than 2" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 7 hours ago, UMB WX said: Love/hate with Dec 2000. 50" was UP lite like. Then the calendar flipped and it was like living in central Ohio the rest of the winter. Same for Dec '05, another analog. Pass! 7 hours ago, Baum said: True. Would we rather repeat Dec '89? 3 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Nausea inducing screw hole there See Hoosier's later map. This one was prolly 15 yrs old. Only concern with his is a couple Bonanza spots like Lafayette that look suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 I am trying to reign in my enthusiasm for the upcoming flip. The guys in the LES belts have every right to be giddy, as it is setting up to be an exciting period for those regions. However, I have some reservations for those of us relying on nice cutter or bowling ball. I understand the positives that have been discussed: -The strength and longevity of the trough/cold air, including the reinforcing dump of arctic air being depicted near mid-month, resulting in little chance of precip type issues -The nice snowpack being laid down along/north of the border, making for a nice setup for the rest of winter -The mention of a trough retrograde, allowing moisture/system snows to pump into the subforum, etc. Looking at the models in terms of sensible weather is a little disheartening to me. Those worried about cold and dry may have point. I am seeing being dependent on a couple of weak clippers to deliver any goods except for the slight trough relaxation which allows the mid-month spread-the-wealth storm in GFS weenie-land. I'm not going to hang my hat on that one yet, although it is the time period to watch for SOMETHING. The GFS and EPS both point to a trough reinforcement after that time period, possibly leading to more dry/cold. I hope that I am completely wrong and know that this may be a nice setup for later in the month, but I have a bad feeling that I may spend early to mid December freezing my reasoner for a few mood flakes. EDIT: I might have put this in the wrong thread. Maybe it belongs in medium range thread, or better yet, in the complaint thread. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 pattern change is necessary if there is going to be any hope for decent snows for the sub. Fretting details at this juncture probably not worth the effort. BTW...what's wrong with mood flakes at Christmas time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, Baum said: pattern change is necessary if there is going to be any hope for decent snows for the sub. Fretting details at this juncture probably not worth the effort. BTW...what's wrong with mood flakes at Christmas time? Good point. It's just been a couple of years since we've seen the real deal, so I'm getting antsy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 21 hours ago, UMB WX said: Love/hate with Dec 2000. 50" was UP lite like. Then the calendar flipped and it was like living in central Ohio the rest of the winter. Put me down for hate. Probably the most frustrating winter weather month I've ever lived through. CMH recorded 21 days with measurable snow and a total of 3.51" qpf for the month. With all that fridid weather, qpf, and 21 out of 31 days having measurable snow....all we had to show for it was around 4" of snow total for the month. Talk about being nickled pennied and dimed nickled to death Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Guess who's back, back again. Buckeye's back, tell a friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 38 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Guess who's back, back again. Buckeye's back, tell a friend. We have a lot of good posters MIA. Doesn’t feel the same anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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