Jonger Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 Here was the view from 2 weeks ago. and today The image on the left would have my carbides all rusty before using it. The image on the right gives me 10X the chance for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Stebo said: If it is a dry flow then no it doesn't which that pattern would be ridge riding flow not trough sliding. It would still be a Pacific dominated flow regime just moderated slightly. In other words a continuation of the last few weeks. The last few weeks had 2 feet of snow in the UP in spots.... and that pattern was nearly a month prior, when average temps were warmer. I couldn't care less about my own house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 Just now, Jonger said: The last few weeks had 2 feet of snow in the UP in spots.... and that pattern was nearly a month prior, when average temps were warmer. I couldn't care less about my own house. Also had moderation repeatedly. Hey you do you, but the pattern isn't good even for what you are looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Also had moderation repeatedly. Hey you do you, but the pattern isn't good even for what you are looking for. This would all but guarantee that the proceeding weekend will feature me driving north to try this sled out on early season conditions. IF it pans out as the models show. It's still far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 Just now, Jonger said: This would all but guarantee that the proceeding weekend will feature me driving north to try this sled out on early season conditions. IF it pans out as the models show. It's still far out. A less than day's worth of snow with no base in place? That high moving in rapidly shuts off LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 Ensembles show general troughing.... That's also positive. What we have going on right now isn't good for anything but Pokemon Go and standing around at a bus stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 Either way, for the region as a whole that pattern sucks. For the few snowmobilers it might be okay in spurts. Either way might need to bump the snowmobile thread for that discussion separate from this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Stebo said: A less than day's worth of snow with no base in place? That high moving in rapidly shuts off LES. The trails need cold to freeze the mud. Again. For what I do, cold is king. It's the table setting for everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 Just now, Stebo said: Either way, for the region as a whole that pattern sucks. For the few snowmobilers it might be okay in spurts. Either way might need to bump the snowmobile thread for that discussion separate from this thread. Today's pattern isn't good for anyone. Nothing fun comes out of pacific flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Jonger said: Today's pattern isn't good for anyone. Nothing fun comes out of pacific flow. I bumped your thread for you to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 Just now, Stebo said: I bumped your thread for you to change. I'm not discussing carburetors and octane booster.... I'm discussing winter patterns in a DJF monthly thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 Just now, Jonger said: I'm not discussing carburetors and octane booster.... I'm discussing winter patterns in a DJF monthly thread. Yeah so am I for everyone in the region, not just the lake belts with luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 Just now, Stebo said: Yeah so am I for everyone in the region, not just the lake belts with luck. Guess what? Severe weather has no value to me personally and I don't poop on threads that have people discussing severe outside of SE Michigan. We have several posters who live in the lake belt and like discussing LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jonger said: Guess what? Severe weather has no value to me personally and I don't poop on threads that have people discussing severe outside of SE Michigan. We have several posters who live in the lake belt and like discussing LES. I am not pooping on anything, I am just pointing out as a whole the pattern sucks for anyone outside of the lakes. It isn't anything to get remotely excited about. Also there is a LES thread to discuss that stuff for those who live in the lake areas. Its a good thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 Just now, Stebo said: I am not pooping on anything, I am just pointing out as a whole the pattern sucks for anyone outside of the lakes. It isn't anything to get remotely excited about. Also there is a LES thread to discuss that stuff for those who live in the lake areas. Its a good thread. That pattern alone will have my lawn completely covered. I really don't care about it here, although I would like to use my new Lithium powered snow blower. Someone in a lake prone around would get 1 foot or more. I would be on that like flies on sh-t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 8 minutes ago, Stebo said: Either way, for the region as a whole that pattern sucks. For the few snowmobilers it might be okay in spurts. Either way might need to bump the snowmobile thread for that discussion separate from this thread. That is a monthly map though, so it would not necessarily reflect things happening on a weekly or subweekly scale. The hope would be to get a shot or two at a juicier system if/when the trough relaxes. Here's an example... this monthly map looks like it would be awful/dry, and we got GHD2 out of it. Now I'm not necessarily suggesting a repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 A NW flow pattern increase our chances of snow beyond what we have now. A pattern like today is the exact opposite of ideal. There is next to no chance of snow in the subforum with this pattern. Winnipeg would struggle as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 Just now, Hoosier said: That is a monthly map though, so it would not necessarily reflect things happening on a weekly or subweekly scale. The hope would be to get a shot or two at a juicier system if/when the trough relaxes. Here's an example... this monthly map looks like it would be awful/dry, and we got GHD2 out of it. Now I'm not necessarily suggesting a repeat. I'd rather take my chance on a favorable pattern look for the entire month than what is being shown. That massive ridging out west with near normal here tells me the pattern is modified Pacific air we are going to be getting. What you have posted here isn't anywhere near what the CFS is showing. Feb 15 would be a LES blockbuster again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Stebo said: I'd rather take my chance on a favorable pattern look for the entire month than what is being shown. That massive ridging out west with near normal here tells me the pattern is modified Pacific air we are going to be getting. What you have posted here isn't anywhere near what the CFS is showing. Feb 15 would be a LES blockbuster again. I'd rather the monthly not look like that too. My main point was that looks can be deceiving and it's possible to get something good even if the monthly temp map isn't so desirable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 Just now, Hoosier said: I'd rather the monthly not look like that too. My main point was that looks can be deceiving and it's possible to get something good even if the monthly temp map isn't so desirable. As a month sure, but I am inferring what we are seeing. The individual CFS runs themselves don't move the meter for me either. So it isn't just me complaining to complain, there is a basis from what I am seeing. I don't want to start burning an entire month, we did that last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 From looking at the Ensembles, indications of a cool down stand out come next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Definitely a wintry look in the extended. I will take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 23 hours ago, Frog Town said: After chasing the cold that never came last winter, many are "Once bitten, twice shy". Don't blame Grand Rapids for staying within two weeks. They often like to jump out much further than most offices. Actually much of December was cold and snowy last year, ironically starting right around the time that this potential cold snap will be hitting. I don't necessarily remember a lot of cold being "chased" last year, it was just a very funny winter overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Definitely a wintry look in the extended. I will take my chances. Below normal temperatures here in December will bring snow with it. Maybe not a blockbuster low coming out of Texas but it will snow. Even small disturbances moving over the warm lakes will bring us some snow. That’s one great thing about Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 1 hour ago, roardog said: Below normal temperatures here in December will bring snow with it. Maybe not a blockbuster low coming out of Texas but it will snow. Even small disturbances moving over the warm lakes will bring us some snow. That’s one great thing about Michigan. Agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XfireLOW Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 4 hours ago, Jonger said: A NW flow pattern increase our chances of snow beyond what we have now. A pattern like today is the exact opposite of ideal. There is next to no chance of snow in the subforum with this pattern. Winnipeg would struggle as it is. Agreed, NW flow patterns for NW MN and SW Manitoba can be a tough pattern for snow. It all depends on whether clippers can get over the western ridge intact and with any amount of moisture to work with. Good NW flow snowfall patterns here were Feb-March 2013 and all of 2013-2014 winter, although these are the exceptions not the normal for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 20 hours ago, Jonger said: The trails need cold to freeze the mud. Again. For what I do, cold is king. It's the table setting for everything. I guess its a toss up. I personally just want cold weather even if its moderated. The lakes up north by my cottage need to freeze, the outdoor rink needs cold to freeze. Also even in the boring (moderated) cold patterns lots of N.Michigan, Central Ontario are able to nickel and dime themselves to a solid 6-10 inches. Moderated Cold in the northern parts of this sub are still going to be highs barely reaching the 20s considering the average high at my cottage is already 28F/16F. Overall I will gladly take the (potential) upcoming pattern instead of enduring more 40s/50s and not being able to partake in any winter activities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 The upcoming pattern starting Tuesday looks amazing. LES bonanza with clippers mixed in. Already making tentative plans. Of course it could fall apart. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 On 11/27/2017 at 5:00 PM, Hoosier said: That is a monthly map though, so it would not necessarily reflect things happening on a weekly or subweekly scale. The hope would be to get a shot or two at a juicier system if/when the trough relaxes. Here's an example... this monthly map looks like it would be awful/dry, and we got GHD2 out of it. Now I'm not necessarily suggesting a repeat. You could say that the GHD-2 ingredients were coming together as January ended. After that storm, it was mostly cold and suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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