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December 2017 Discussion


snowlover2

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8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Not sure how much the Milwaukee-Chicago crowd follows the LES thread, but it looks like maybe something worth watching about a week from now.  GFS in particular has been advertising a favorable wind direction.  Of course it's not wise to go all in at this point for that side of the lake, but the western and/or southern end of the lake may have a window.

Agree on all points, especially about caution being warranted due to being 6-7 days out. If a signal is still there in 48 hours, I will be interested. 

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Lows at all sites in northern IL near/north of I-80 except Northerly Island dipped below zero this morning (-1 to -6 range at ASOS/AWOS). That's pretty impressive considering it was an advection driven cold with the center of the high pressure well to the northwest and some cloud cover.

Tonight the center of the high will be much closer, over IA, with 1040+ pressures all the way to Lake Michigan. While not a perfect radiational cooling setup, if skies stay clear, it looks like winds will lighten enough for colder temps than this morning. 00z MET MOS has -9 for ARR. I think it's fairly likely some spots go below -10.

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I am near Columbus right now. This area is close to its lowest max temperature of this calendar year. Lowest max at CMH since Jan. 1st has been 16, right now it is at 20.

I am glad I don't have to produce a forecast for the East Coast this week. Euro and GFS say different things. That's not too unusual, but it has big time implications for snow on the East Coast.

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5 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Ya -8 to -10 sounds about right.

I admit it's fairly low confidence... a lot of how I came up with that was just extrapolating from where temps were at this time last evening.  It's 7 degrees colder than this time last night which would put the low at -10 with the same rate of cooling.  If anything, it looks like slightly weaker winds tonight (especially toward morning) 

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

I admit it's fairly low confidence... a lot of how I came up with that was just extrapolating from where temps were at this time last evening.  It's 7 degrees colder than this time last night which would put the low at -10 with the same rate of cooling.  If anything, it looks like slightly weaker winds tonight (especially toward morning) 

Weaker winds would help, so maybe -12 could be in play.

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2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Weaker winds would help, so maybe -12 could be in play.

Areas farther west are better positioned with regards to the surface high.  I'd definitely go negative double digits with high confidence at ORD if winds go calm but that is looking iffy at best.

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