December 2017 Discussion

[snowlover2]

Hard to believe the last month of 2017 as well as the first month of met winter are nearly upon us. Looks like it starts out on the not so cold side.

[Radtechwxman]

Yea this weather pattern is snooze fest. Dry cold front passages. Too warm for snow, not enough moisture for anything severe. Hoping winter will get going in middle to late Dec

[IWXwx]

If it's not going to snow, we might as well root for severe for the western part of the subforum. South Bend guy's gotta be in hog heaven.

 

[TugHillMatt]

I was scoping out some of the other regional threads to see what others were thinking for December. There was a pretty good discussion on the Metro New York forum about EPS and GEFS, as well as other teleconnections, showing signs of winter setting in Mid-December and beyond. But, oh my word, I had a chuckle reading the thread. Typical New York sass, with so many of the comments said with an edginess and attitude.

[Hoosier]

12z GFS/ECMWF are trying to phase that southern Plains low with a northern stream wave around the start of the month.  I don't know how much wintry potential it has but it could at least break the dry stretch.

[snowlover2]

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

12z GFS/ECMWF are trying to phase that southern Plains low with a northern stream wave around the start of the month.  I don't know how much wintry potential it has but it could at least break the dry stretch.

12z Euro does have some accumulating snow for NE WI/UP of MI but there is some hints of snow farther south to NE IL/NE half of IN/NW OH.

[cmillzz]

Long range does not look very nina like at all... pretty strange stuff.

[cmillzz]

6 hours ago, IWXwx said:

If it's not going to snow, we might as well root for severe for the western part of the subforum. South Bend guy's gotta be in hog heaven.

 

Where was this three weeks ago??? Pointless to have warmth this late in the season now.

[Jonger]

Long range GFS looks like this crap ends around the 5th.

10 weeks before winter starts.

Bring on the troughs...

[Hoosier]

27 minutes ago, Jonger said:

Long range GFS looks like this crap ends around the 5th.

10 weeks before winter starts.

Bring on the troughs...

Meltdowns galore 

[TugHillMatt]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Meltdowns galore 

I admit...my heart skipped a beat, and I felt ill for a moment....

 

[Jonger]

I meant days.

LOL

[SchaumburgStormer]

Quite frankly, I prefer the slow downward transition as opposed to the violent swings we saw last year. These warmer days are giving me plenty of time to get the Christmas decorations up and any last minute winter prep done to the yard.

[BuffaloWeather]

Way out there but I think we see some big Lake effect snows if the current models are correct from Dec 9/10th onward. 

BUF NWS thoughts: 

After that, model guidance and the pattern evolution over the past
few days has suggested a notable pattern change taking place during
the second week in December. The strong East Asian Jet will weaken
and break down with time, and a longwave ridge will begin to take
shape along or just offshore of the west coast of North America. The
blocking ridge will remain over the North Atlantic near Greenland
and the Davis Strait, which will begin to project more on a negative
NAO pattern. The AO (Arctic Oscillation) will also become more
negative with time as blocking matures over the high arctic. The MJO
(Madden Julian Oscillation) is forecast to remain weak though the
period with little influence on the northern hemispheric circulation
pattern.

The combination of a weakening of the East Asian Jet, building west
coast ridge, and blocking near Greenland should all promote the
development of a longwave trough over central and eastern North
America during the second week in December. This should allow for
more cold air to flow southward across Canada and into the north
central and northeastern U.S., including our region, starting
somewhere around December 10th. At this time range this is all
predicated on model and ensemble data, but if the pattern change
verifies we will see a notable move towards more cold and snow.

[CoachLB]

[IWXwx]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Way out there but I think we see some big Lake effect snows if the current models are correct from Dec 9/10th onward. 

BUF NWS thoughts: 

After that, model guidance and the pattern evolution over the past
few days has suggested a notable pattern change taking place during
the second week in December. The strong East Asian Jet will weaken
and break down with time, and a longwave ridge will begin to take
shape along or just offshore of the west coast of North America. The
blocking ridge will remain over the North Atlantic near Greenland
and the Davis Strait, which will begin to project more on a negative
NAO pattern. The AO (Arctic Oscillation) will also become more
negative with time as blocking matures over the high arctic. The MJO
(Madden Julian Oscillation) is forecast to remain weak though the
period with little influence on the northern hemispheric circulation
pattern.

The combination of a weakening of the East Asian Jet, building west
coast ridge, and blocking near Greenland should all promote the
development of a longwave trough over central and eastern North
America during the second week in December. This should allow for
more cold air to flow southward across Canada and into the north
central and northeastern U.S., including our region, starting
somewhere around December 10th. At this time range this is all
predicated on model and ensemble data, but if the pattern change
verifies we will see a notable move towards more cold and snow.

That sounds like a Jon Hitchcok discussion. He is also a LES guru at BUF. Big loss to IWX when he left.

I hope he's right.

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Way out there but I think we see some big Lake effect snows if the current models are correct from Dec 9/10th onward. 

BUF NWS thoughts: 

After that, model guidance and the pattern evolution over the past
few days has suggested a notable pattern change taking place during
the second week in December. The strong East Asian Jet will weaken
and break down with time, and a longwave ridge will begin to take
shape along or just offshore of the west coast of North America. The
blocking ridge will remain over the North Atlantic near Greenland
and the Davis Strait, which will begin to project more on a negative
NAO pattern. The AO (Arctic Oscillation) will also become more
negative with time as blocking matures over the high arctic. The MJO
(Madden Julian Oscillation) is forecast to remain weak though the
period with little influence on the northern hemispheric circulation
pattern.

The combination of a weakening of the East Asian Jet, building west
coast ridge, and blocking near Greenland should all promote the
development of a longwave trough over central and eastern North
America during the second week in December. This should allow for
more cold air to flow southward across Canada and into the north
central and northeastern U.S., including our region, starting
somewhere around December 10th. At this time range this is all
predicated on model and ensemble data, but if the pattern change
verifies we will see a notable move towards more cold and snow.

I sure hope so. Grand Rapids NWS avoided any mention of it...focusing on "warm pattern continuing into 'at least' the first part of December."

[Frog Town]

 

2 hours ago, blackrock said:

I sure hope so. Grand Rapids NWS avoided any mention of it...focusing on "warm pattern continuing into 'at least' the first part of December."

After chasing the cold that never came last winter, many are "Once bitten, twice shy".  Don't blame Grand Rapids for staying within two weeks.  They often

 like to jump out much further than most offices.  

[Chinook]

4 hours ago, CoachLB said:

ECMWF- EPS 276 hour image

It is amazing we can look at these EPS images beyond 240hr and post them (without any repercussions) these days. I call it Maue Magic.

[cmillzz]

6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Way out there but I think we see some big Lake effect snows if the current models are correct from Dec 9/10th onward. 

BUF NWS thoughts: 

After that, model guidance and the pattern evolution over the past
few days has suggested a notable pattern change taking place during
the second week in December. The strong East Asian Jet will weaken
and break down with time, and a longwave ridge will begin to take
shape along or just offshore of the west coast of North America. The
blocking ridge will remain over the North Atlantic near Greenland
and the Davis Strait, which will begin to project more on a negative
NAO pattern. The AO (Arctic Oscillation) will also become more
negative with time as blocking matures over the high arctic. The MJO
(Madden Julian Oscillation) is forecast to remain weak though the
period with little influence on the northern hemispheric circulation
pattern.

The combination of a weakening of the East Asian Jet, building west
coast ridge, and blocking near Greenland should all promote the
development of a longwave trough over central and eastern North
America during the second week in December. This should allow for
more cold air to flow southward across Canada and into the north
central and northeastern U.S., including our region, starting
somewhere around December 10th. At this time range this is all
predicated on model and ensemble data, but if the pattern change
verifies we will see a notable move towards more cold and snow.

Why are they even discussing something that's 2+ weeks out? Never seen that in a NWS discussion before.

[UMB WX]

it's coming.. box the palms..  goodnight

[TugHillMatt]

It really isn't 2 weeks away. The system that will be involved with the forecasted pattern change will be affecting the western and central parts of the country a week from now. So, it seems plausible to be discussing it. Just because we don't see a turn to winter in exactly a week doesn't mean it is already starting days earlier in other areas of the country...and give us a better idea of what to expect.

[Jonger]

The front comes through Wed the 5th. We have about 10 days until the pattern turns colder. Then the bottom drops out.

[Hoosier]

Well, the pattern looks to become pretty amplified in the extended.  Storm details will have to be ironed out.

[geddyweather]

19 hours ago, IWXwx said:

That sounds like a Jon Hitchcok discussion. He is also a LES guru at BUF. Big loss to IWX when he left.

I hope he's right.

You'd be correct on that AFD being a Hitchcock discussion. I remember when he was at IWX, how long ago has that been? 

[Jonger]

We have come a long ways.... but now the CFS has December as a Normal to BELOW normal (SE Michigan) temp month.

[IWXwx]

1 hour ago, geddyweather said:

You'd be correct on that AFD being a Hitchcock discussion. I remember when he was at IWX, how long ago has that been? 

I'm not sure how long it's been. Probably 5 years. He could forecast Lake Michigan lake effect with the best of them.

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, Jonger said:

We have come a long ways.... but now the CFS has December as a Normal to BELOW normal (SE Michigan) temp month.

That does nothing for the region to stay in northwest dry flow.

[Jonger]

1 minute ago, Stebo said:

That does nothing for the region to stay in northwest dry flow.

We all have our interests.

NW flow means LES.

That helps me with the $13k I spent on Saturday for a new sled.

[Stebo]

Just now, Jonger said:

We all have our interests.

NW flow means LES.

That helps me with the $13k I spent on Saturday for a new sled.

If it is a dry flow then no it doesn't which that pattern would be ridge riding flow not trough sliding. It would still be a Pacific dominated flow regime just moderated slightly. In other words a continuation of the last few weeks.