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Late autumn, early winter model mayhem


Typhoon Tip

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Certainly not verbatim but they show a swinging SW (slightly) of the trod.  We’ll see.   NAO would be helpful.

Money is on that orientation on the GFS was whack with a cutter up the St Lawrence doesn't mean we can't have one cut diagonally across us SWFE style but a southeaster?, bet a bitcoin or 2 on that not happening.

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

We had some porn going on...and it wasn't weather porn lol....

Mods are sitting here 24/7 to do this boards bidding.  We are on here when we can.  We all have jobs.  You see stuff that shouldn't be here, report it and it will be dealt with by someone.  That may not occur instantaneously but I assure it will will be taken care of.

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sure this is old hat for this trigger happy crew :) but how about the skirt bomb on the 12z GFS for Friday...

It's a NJ Modeler ... which is high latitude Miller B/narrow ... but, it's also happening in total further S...  Just a little bit more total meridional wave amplitude (spatial) and we probably have a more full Miller B multi-regional impact ....  Unlike this last one, it would be windier... 

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Utterly comedic how the GFS was seemingly parameterized by some dykhead at NCEP to totally f-up christmass too...  

Gives that panache because no matter what is going on, that f'n model finds a way to pump a warm sector so far up are butts we're puking DP right smack on the 24th...  I've seen 8 different pattern flavors, all achieve the same thing... like, just cut those days out of the model and don't both charting them because we get it!  ahahaha

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