OceanStWx Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I think back to some great storms where the Pacific was crap like 12/5/03 and others, Pacific being on board is obviously very key but we have had some doozies with a Neggie PNA due to some blocked up Atlantic flow forcing strong vort maxes out of Canada south What is hard to tease out though is what role did the Pacific play in events like that. Sure we had a big 50/50 low so there wasn't a lot of room to cut, but the main shortwave came onshore in BC and pumped the ridge up to the North Pole. This sends a shortwave down through Quebec that enhanced confluence and high pressure in our neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not a problem man. That’s why we are here ”We here at WeenieWeather will keep you updated on the latest met Twitter things we can find” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 53 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Meanwhile, the shortwave on the 18z GFS for next Sunday is more interesting. Inv trough for all or legit S/w? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 34 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Two things: 1) this was not intended to derail the thread and 2) my initial comment was in response to comments regarding suppression of systems. I was lamenting the scrapers that give south and eastern zones hefty snows while GC is enjoying dim sun. Enough--we'll see how the season goes. Enjoy the upcoming pattern! I love dim sum, and I might as well be having it if its not snowing. Good winter pattern clearly coming, regardless of little pertubations here and there. Guidance has been very persistent and we are very clearly stepping down nicely as the snow falls up north. All things being equal, we are both in good spots Mr. Man. I see no signs of suppression...the blocking pattern doesn't seem extremely west in the DS, and I don't see a big 50-50 low, which tends to be the big suppressor when there is a big ole block in the DS. This is the kind of blocking that can work from James to Jeff and from Portland to Powderfreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 -PNA/-NAO is actually one of the better snow patterns in New England. But you often want to see some cross polar over the top of the PNA trough in western Canada. At least enough to make sure the source region for Canada isn't PAC puke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 I just want to kiss the H7 vort on all these storm tracks, Keep me near the goods with a cold or polar air mass, And lets go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: -PNA/-NAO is actually one of the better snow patterns in New England. But you often want to see some cross polar over the top of the PNA trough in western Canada. At least enough to make sure the source region for Canada isn't PAC puke. Remember Pickles freaking out 2 days prior to Jan 27 15 because the PNA was flat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Remember Pickles freaking out 2 days prior to Jan 27 15 because the PAN was flat? Pickles has a major PNA ridge for NNE now. He's gone to the dark side. No longer one of us. We relinquish him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pickles has a major PNA ridge for NNE now. He's gone to the dark side. No longer one of us. We relinquish him. Apparently I had a trace of snow today at home per the wife. 5 minute burst. So what does 2 traces equal, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Apparently I had a trace of snow today at home per the wife. 5 minute burst. So what does 2 traces equal, lol I had some returns overhead while sleeping so may have had flakes too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: It's just kind of a weird thing to root for...it's like me while on winter hill rooting for BOS to rain...yeah, I have gotten some monster whoppers in ORH when BOS was raining, but honestly, most of the good ones are when BOS is snowing too. Even in storms where the rain/snow line sets up near BOS or just west...a lot of the time that means I am dryslotting. Now, I'd probably root for Nantucket and the outer Cape to rain...but not someone within 50-70 miles by way the crow flies. That gets me nervous about dryslots....as a QPF worrier, it's something to think about next time you are rooting for a R/S line in SE MA to push further NW into the 495 belt. We know who really likes to see rain from Tolland to Wilmington. Am I right PF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 January 26-28th 2015 was an example of a pure PNA being under forecasted by the models up until the two days before where they all came back west with the low pressure center. Plus it dug all the way to Cape Hatteras, NC before coming up the East Coast to about 50 miles southeast of the benchmark, a cold storm track where the 700mb low tracks just east of CHH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Nantucket Sound, and Cape Cod Bay are really dropping in water temperatures, almost down to 10C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Remember Pickles freaking out 2 days prior to Jan 27 15 because the PNA was flat? Doesn’t look so flat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 27 minutes ago, weathafella said: Doesn’t look so flat? PNA region was Pickles concern for the day of with a SoCal storm, which by the way would end up being Feb 2nd, intermountain high FTW, love those.By the way Plymouth state maps , LSD much lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Here comes the 00z GFS....way deeper with the Sunday night trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Pretty close to a good CCB in eastern areas....gets the Cape good, but BL is rain there. Def worth watching though...low probability event as mentioned earlier, but the trend as subtly been deeper on a lot of guidance. 00z Canadian didn't really want to play ball though. But at 5-6 days out, it's one of those things to see if it trends a little more to start taking it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Trough not digging as much on the 06z run. Like you said still worth watchin! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 20 here-cold morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 20 here-cold morning.Balmy 24 here lolSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Close to something tasty Sunday night. The flow is rather progressive so we may be just a bit outside, but certainly something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Close to something tasty Sunday night. The flow is rather progressive so we may be just a bit outside, but certainly something to watch.Hopefully the 12z Euro starts sniffing something Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, WintersComing said: Hopefully the 12z Euro starts sniffing something Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I would not bet on it with this flow, but we shall see. Even on the GFS op, the ridging is pretty far east in the Plains. You need to time it perfectly between that and getting all the help you can with some ridging in the Davis Straits so that the s/w amplifies significantly off the East Coast. I would not rule it out, but I think a coastal storm impacting the northeast is not likely. Maybe some light precip or mood flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Lolz Toasty in ASH this a.m W the size of the PNA domain, there is wiggle room. PNA was not "crap" as the pieces moved into place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 18 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Lolz Toasty in ASH this a.m W the size of the PAN domain, there is wiggle room. PNA was not "crap" as the pieces moved into place What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What? The PNA was not Flat in the storm being alluded to. I was just Hoping the Pna Would be more poleward No question that when the caution flags subsided it was Another "AWT" in the books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 PNA was not flat with the Jan 26-28th 2015 Blizzard, otherwise known as Juno, or "It ain't gonna happen James" storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The PNA was not flat on The storm being alluded to. I was just Hoping the Pna Would be more poleward For Sunday night? I'm confused what you're referring to. Edit, I see now. You guys were being weenies last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: For Sunday night? I'm confused what you're referring to. Scott I think he was talking about Winter Storm Juno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: PNA was not flat with the Jan 26-28th 2015 Blizzard, otherwise known as Juno, or "It ain't gonna happen James" storm Was That what it was referred to lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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