Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Late autumn, early winter model mayhem


Typhoon Tip

Recommended Posts

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I think back to some great storms where the Pacific was crap like 12/5/03 and others, Pacific being on board is obviously very key but we have had some doozies with a Neggie PNA due to some blocked up Atlantic flow forcing strong vort maxes out of Canada south

What is hard to tease out though is what role did the Pacific play in events like that. Sure we had a big 50/50 low so there wasn't a lot of room to cut, but the main shortwave came onshore in BC and pumped the ridge up to the North Pole. This sends a shortwave down through Quebec that enhanced confluence and high pressure in our neck of the woods. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 3.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
34 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Two things:

1) this was not intended to derail the thread and

2) my initial comment was in response to comments regarding suppression of systems.  I was lamenting the scrapers that give south and eastern zones hefty snows while GC is enjoying dim sun.

 

Enough--we'll see how the season goes.  Enjoy the upcoming pattern!

I love dim sum, and I might as well be having it if its not snowing.  Good winter pattern clearly coming, regardless of little pertubations here and there.  Guidance has been very persistent and we are very clearly stepping down nicely as the snow falls up north.  All things being equal, we are both in good spots Mr. Man.    I see no signs of suppression...the blocking pattern doesn't seem extremely west in the DS, and I don't see a big 50-50 low, which tends to be the big suppressor when there is a big ole block in the DS.  This is the kind of blocking that can work from James to Jeff and from Portland to Powderfreak.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

-PNA/-NAO is actually one of the better snow patterns in New England. But you often want to see some cross polar over the top of the PNA trough in western Canada. At least enough to make sure the source region for Canada isn't PAC puke.

Remember Pickles freaking out 2 days prior to Jan 27 15 because the PNA was flat?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's just kind of a weird thing to root for...it's like me while on winter hill rooting for BOS to rain...yeah, I have gotten some monster whoppers in ORH when BOS was raining, but honestly, most of the good ones are when BOS is snowing too. Even in storms where the rain/snow line sets up near BOS or just west...a lot of the time that means I am dryslotting. Now, I'd probably root for Nantucket and the outer Cape to rain...but not someone within 50-70 miles by way the crow flies. That gets me nervous about dryslots....as a QPF worrier, it's something to think about next time you are rooting for a R/S line in SE MA to push further NW into the 495 belt.

We know who really likes to see rain from Tolland to Wilmington.  Am I right PF?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

January 26-28th 2015 was an example of a pure PNA being under forecasted by the models up until the two days before where they all came back west with the low pressure center.  Plus it dug all the way to Cape Hatteras, NC before coming up the East Coast to about 50 miles southeast of the benchmark, a cold storm track where the 700mb low tracks just east of CHH.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty close to a good CCB in eastern areas....gets the Cape good, but BL is rain there. Def worth watching though...low probability event as mentioned earlier, but the trend as subtly been deeper on a lot of guidance. 00z Canadian didn't really want to play ball though. But at 5-6 days out, it's one of those things to see if it trends a little more to start taking it seriously.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

 


Hopefully the 12z Euro starts sniffing something


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

I would not bet on it with this flow, but we shall see. Even on the GFS op, the ridging is pretty far east in the Plains. You need to time it perfectly between that and getting all the help you can with some ridging in the Davis Straits so that the s/w amplifies significantly off the East Coast.  I would not rule it out, but I think a coastal storm impacting the northeast is not likely. Maybe some light precip or mood flakes?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...