Late autumn, early winter model mayhem

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro doesn't look very good. Caved pretty hard to GFS. Might be a rare medium range loss to the inferior model. 

Will it come back? Have to see improvement by Sat noon. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Will it come back? Have to see improvement by Sat noon. 

Let's get this storm out of the way this weekend and then worry about the Miller b.

[leo2000]

15 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

WTF are you talking about??  First off Mid November wasn’t a torch.  Stop listening and reading all the horsesh*t that’s out there!  There isn’t any better info out there than right here!!  Stop being so gullible.  

Sadly its the truth as the AAM tanks back to negative will bring about a more Nina like pattern by the end of December into January. Even pro snow lover mets are saying this. 

[powderfreak]

Euro looks pretty good for the Tue/Wed event... similar to the GFS.

Bunch of snow coming for New England over the next 7 days...12z EURO snow QPF.

 

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Let's get this storm out of the way this weekend and then worry about the Miller b.

That's why we have separate threads.

[Ginx snewx]

Nice cutter on the Euro day 9 lol, hopefully that's the pattern reset storm well before Mr Grinch can do his dastardly deeds. Day 9 and all

[LurkerBoy]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice cutter on the Euro day 9 lol, hopefully that's the pattern reset storm well before Mr Grinch can do his dastardly deeds. Day 9 and all

UGHHHHHHH

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice cutter on the Euro day 9 lol, hopefully that's the pattern reset storm well before Mr Grinch can do his dastardly deeds. Day 9 and all

Prepare.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice cutter on the Euro day 9 lol, hopefully that's the pattern reset storm well before Mr Grinch can do his dastardly deeds. Day 9 and all

Couldn’t get Tuesday right.. doubt that ones right . Mute it

[weathafella]

19 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

Sadly its the truth as the AAM tanks back to negative will bring about a more Nina like pattern by the end of December into January. Even pro snow lover mets are saying this. 

What did last nights weeklies show?

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Prepare.

Expected, probably a SWFE for CNE then there is a great set up at day 10. Gonna be a memorable Christmas week

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah still time for Tuesday to come south a bit. Hopefully it does. Would make it juicier too. 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Expected, probably a SWFE for CNE then there is a great set up at day 10. Gonna be a memorable Christmas week

Yeah reload around the 20th. Hopefully it's not a true cutter before that. If we get lucky maybe it's an overrunning wintry event but I'd probably sign up for a couple days in the 40s if that was offered as that probably wouldn't be enough to eradicate the snow cover. 

Still a ways out. Sometimes when we're running lucky, those relaxations totally fail and we actually get an event out of the increased gradient. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah reload around the 20th. Hopefully it's not a true cutter before that. If we get lucky maybe it's an overrunning wintry event but I'd probably sign up for a couple days in the 40s if that was offered as that probably wouldn't be enough to eradicate the snow cover. 

Still a ways out. Sometimes when we're running lucky, those relaxations totally fail and we actually get an event out of the increased gradient. 

I’m on the boat the thing mutes. There’s some circles talking furnace. The last 3-4 furnaces haven’t worked out . This should suffer the same fate. So we save snow for Christmas 

[leo2000]

15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

What did last nights weeklies show?

I have no idea I would like to know too. 

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, weathafella said:

What did last nights weeklies show?

They looked pretty good. A little more -EPOish. So, the cold could penetrate south, but sometimes the SE ridge wakes up from its slumber too. 

[dendrite]

42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That's why we have separate threads.

A NYC weenie telling us how to post. lawl

[dendrite]

21 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

GFS caves to the EURO in this type of pattern

I think you’re running out of magic.

[Baroclinic Zone]

31 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

UGHHHHHHH

[weathafella]

That’s quite the EPO reload 11-15 EPS 

[KEITH L.I]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That’s quite the EPO reload 11-15 EPS 

Good so the warm-up is brief?

[OSUmetstud]

1 hour ago, leo2000 said:

Sadly its the truth as the AAM tanks back to negative will bring about a more Nina like pattern by the end of December into January. Even pro snow lover mets are saying this. 

When did u move to philly to care about the aam?  

[weathafella]

16 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said:

Good so the warm-up is brief?

It always was and magnitude tbd.  EPO doesn’t mean no cutters.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It always was and magnitude tbd.  EPO doesn’t mean no cutters.

 

Gibbs says 16-22 is an all out furnace 

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gibbs says 16-22 is an all out furnace 

Nothing is sniffing this (high magnitude warmth) and we’re like a week away.  What gives?

[leo2000]

46 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That’s quite the EPO reload 11-15 EPS 

On which one the 00z EPS didn't look good at all at the end of the run. 

[weathafella]

Just now, leo2000 said:

On which one the 00z EPS didn't look good at all at the end of the run. 

12z. 

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Nothing is sniffing this (high magnitude warmth) and we’re like a week away.  What gives?

Not sure. That’s just what he said 

My hunch is it’s muted and ends up a day or 2 of 40’s

[leo2000]

Don't look at the CPC discussion saying a pattern change on the way. As the the Amplified Wave number 5 pattern has become less defined giving way to a wave number 3 or wave number 4 pattern. As the polar air retreats to the north. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

[TheCloser24]

Tues-Wed: 

Impressive ensemble mean signals regarding coastal storm development
of off S New England. Pivoting impulses through the broader H5 trof
rotating H85 temperature anomalies through the Mid-Atlantic and NE
CONUS. The baroclinic zone sharpening offshore as mid-level energy
is sheared S through the base of the H5 trof, digging cyclonically
with more time given the amplified, slower flow, the trof undergoes
a negative tilt with H5 heights down -2 to -3 standard deviations.
Thermal wind response and conveyor belt motions, a potential latch
into the sub-tropics if the N-stream feature(s) doesn`t flatten /
push out S-stream energy.

Aside, seemingly a Miller-B setup. Clipper low diving S, emerging to
the lee of the Appalachians, riding N/E, deepening and retrograding
back beneath H5-7 negatively tilting features, the surface low bombs
along the coast, a Nor`Easter storm setup sweeping delivering snowy
outcomes.

But still uncertainty giving the timing and speed of features, also
strength and amplitude spatially. Initial cold air damming, question
as to thermal profile with precipitation onset / over-running. Then
how quickly do features evolve with respect to conveyor belt motions
and closing off the H85-5 low, the morphology of the system and how
effectively the comma-head wraps around the deepening low. Parent
lift / deformation rearward within the dendritic growth zone, depth
and quality of moisture mixing back around. Colder, Arctic air will
undoubtedly dig into the backside of the system per the gradient and
isallobaric wind response.

Considerable spread within ensemble members. Certain of a wintry mix
but largely unknown are specifics, both at the surface and up above
within the mid to upper levels when it comes to strength, amplitude,
and timing of features. As alluded to in the OVERVIEW above, simply
need to be patient, be prepared, and be ready to respond in the face
of adverse weather.