ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: LAlaland, but that is modeled to be a pretty cold storm in the interior. Mid 10s and warning snows. Just like the ones I used to know. Just like Halloween and Thanksgiving used to be every year when Kevin was a kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Pretty good signal on EPS for 12/12-13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 That could be the first good one, Pretty robust northern stream s/w with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 EPS for a couple runs has been signaling a bit of a relaxation around 12/17-18 before another reload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: EPS for a couple runs has been signaling a bit of a relaxation around 12/17-18 before another reload. It should mute as we close in. Just like last couple did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: It should mute as we close in. Just like last couple did It's already muted...it just goes from balls cold to near normal for a few days...but it wouldn't be shocking if we did have a warm day mixed in there. That's all. Could end up as nothing much though....too far out still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's already muted...it just goes from balls cold to near normal for a few days...but it wouldn't be shocking if we did have a warm day mixed in there. That's all. Could end up as nothing much though....too far out still. I’m just hopeful we don’t have a screamer that ruins our 12-18+ OTG right before Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m just hopeful we don’t have a screamer that ruins our 12-18+ OTG right before Christmas You worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I’m just hopeful we don’t have a screamer that ruins our 12-18+ OTG right before Christmas Yeah we've been snake bit so bad the past decade-plus, we're always waiting for it. Hopefully any type of relaxation or warmup is only a day or two near 40-45....any solid pack would survive that....even better, hopefully we never get a relaxation here. Kind of like how Feb '15 had 80% of the country in a torch while we had 3 days of snow Feb 7-9. Sometimes they just fail to materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m just hopeful we don’t have a screamer that ruins our 12-18+ OTG right before Christmas 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: You worry. And fantasizes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I'm like a child in the candy store watching the Euro. Amazing to me that we could get two nice moderate snow events in less than a week. And the signal for the 13th system is a bit stronger than it was for the 9th system coming in. Could be a good one. EDIT: spelling FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, WxBlue said: I'm like a child in the candy story watching the Euro. Amazing to me that we could get two nice moderate snow events in less than a week. And the signal for the 13th system is a bit stronger than it was for the 9th system coming in. Could be a good one. I was thinking about how you would react to seeing back to back significant snow events in under a week....you get an occasional good one in NC but hardly ever get back to back within a week....more like lucky to get two in one winter. Sometimes in good patterns, we'll get our snow in bunches and it's really fun. Like 25-30" in 10 days type stuff (I won't even bother with the 2015-level analogs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 That was an ugly Euro run relatively speaking, which means 99% of the posters here should rejoice lol. Suppression depression. Let's get some H6 banding going haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You worry. Like Will said. Just a return to normal and no screamer Hopefukky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 Hence the planetary storm conjecture/posit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Like Will said. Just a return to normal and no screamer Hopefukky Would be really nice not to have a rainstorm before the holidays... agree with ya violently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I was thinking about how you would react to seeing back to back significant snow events in under a week....you get an occasional good one in NC but hardly ever get back to back within a week....more like lucky to get two in one winter. Sometimes in good patterns, we'll get our snow in bunches and it's really fun. Like 25-30" in 10 days type stuff (I won't even bother with the 2015-level analogs). And this is only the first half month of this winter. It's considered a successful winter in the Carolinas if we get two moderate events for the whole 3-4 months period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Sometimes in good patterns, we'll get our snow in bunches and it's really fun. Like 25-30" in 10 days type stuff (I won't even bother with the 2015-level analogs). Not up there with E.MA in 2015, but last Feb we had 5 storms Feb 7-16 that totaled 45" (this immediately after we received our rescue dog from TX - was she ever surprised), and that includes the final one being progged as "most likely" 17" about 18 hours before arrival and verifying 6". For my area, GFS has changed from yesterday's dry skies (thru day 12) to a pair of advisory events in 4 days. Hoping it's not Lucy's football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 GFS already more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The Day 6 system on the GFS is depicted well north of where the EURO has it. Lets see which guidance caves too the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 GFS caves to the EURO in this type of pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Like Will said. Just a return to normal and no screamer Hopefukky hopefukky indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Solid look on the 18gfs in the extended. Even mutes the warmth toward Christmas. Let's hope it's not just pushed back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 29 minutes ago, Hazey said: Solid look on the 18gfs in the extended. Even mutes the warmth toward Christmas. Let's hope it's not just pushed back. “Warmth”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 “Warmth”?Relaxation. Better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 GFS op is an outlier right now for the Tuesday/Wednesday clipper/turned nor'easter, GEFS mean, EURO op and EURO EPS MEAN all support benchmark tracking surface low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I hear we are going into a La Nina pattern after 12 days or so as the MJO is apparently forcing the positive PNA we currently have. Also a positive EPO. Which would not be good at all. As of right now this pattern were going into is Nino like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, leo2000 said: I hear we are going into a La Nina pattern after 12 days or so as the MJO is apparently forcing the positive PNA we currently have. Also a positive EPO. Which would not be good at all. As of right now this pattern were going into like Nino like. ? Wat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: ? Wat Mega torch coming like Mid November! I got all this information from ClicheVortex over on the Accuweather weather forum. Seems to be very informed about the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 14 minutes ago, leo2000 said: I hear we are going into a La Nina pattern after 12 days or so as the MJO is apparently forcing the positive PNA we currently have. Also a positive EPO. Which would not be good at all. As of right now this pattern were going into is Nino like. Who did you hear this from? Seems like a muted relaxation and then a reload has been what has been mentioned by most of the mets and good hobbyists here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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