Late autumn, early winter model mayhem

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Which is why a -NAO may and may not be so useful for winter enthusiasts here... 

This is a good opportunity to elucidate my point ... -NAO isn't well-enough understood (for other reasons, like that you stated right there..) and folks really shouldn't blanket assess things based upon it.  Actual 'blocks' in the NAO domain, particularly west versus east, do decidedly different forcing numbers on the flow compared to large amplitude ridges in that/those vicinity.   

It's probably true for any of those, but the problem with the NAO is that it's effect is "back drilling" ... It more than just seems modeling has trouble assessing how downstream events "back-log" forcing as opposed to when said forcing is driving things going west to east.  

I keep coming back to a hypothesis that I have where we've been looking at the NAO wrongly all along - it's not the -NAO ..it's stuff going on upstream from NE of Japan all the way to the Alaska sector and then across mid-latitudes of N/A that's doing it, and the NAO just happens to be exhaust (for lack of better words); we keep seeing the exhaust and thinking that's what's doing it. 

I was being snarky and droll earlier, and folks took it the wrong way in this super uptight nervy touchy bastion of emotion co-dependence of winter climate (understood) but I definitely believe the standard model of NAO that stemmed(s) from the 1980/'90s needs some polish. 

Interesting take.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

nickels and dimes?

Scraping couches for pennies. 

[OceanStWx]

4 hours ago, leo2000 said:

Doesn't the EPS have a hard time handling such blocking though. Just look at the last time it tried to weaken the blocking. It came back stronger I think. 

 

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I haven't seen much evidence the EPS struggles with NAO blocking specifically. There was a paper maybe 6 or 7 years ago about how they had a warm bias in the east in the D8-12 period.

What we do know is that models in general don't handle blocking well. It's just not a stable pattern at all, and it's not a natural state for models to exist in. That's probably a major reason why models are almost universally too quick in breaking down blocking patterns (by a week or so). 

We talked about it a little a week or so ago. When the Pacific jet buckles and retracts or displaces towards the Equator model uncertainty increases. A ripping, zonal Pacific jet is an easy one for models to predict on the other hand.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

What we do know is that models in general don't handle blocking well. It's just not a stable pattern at all, and it's not a natural state for models to exist in. That's probably a major reason why models are almost universally too quick in breaking down blocking patterns (by a week or so). 

We talked about it a little a week or so ago. When the Pacific jet buckles and retracts or displaces towards the Equator model uncertainty increases. A ripping, zonal Pacific jet is an easy one for models to predict on the other hand.

Probably part of the reason some complain that they always nail the warm patterns, but whiff on the cold ones.

We are in the mid latitudes....an intrusion of arctic weather inherently means that the atmosphere on a hemispheric scale is disturbed, which will wreak havoc with the models.

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Probably part of the reason some complain that they always nail the warm patterns, but whiff on the cold ones.

We are in the mid latitudes....an intrusion of arctic weather is inherently means that the atmosphere on a hemispheric scale is disturbed, which will wreak havoc with the models.

Bingo. The favored atmospheric state for high model certainty is a torchy one for most of the CONUS. What we are here trying to nail is the ridging and blocks.

It took me a while to accept it, but Dr. Colucci was right, high pressures are sexy too.

[moneypitmike]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

 Many times on my way to Berkshire East it was raining even up to Greenfield and as soon as you climbed MPMs hill it flipped. I know Chris in Greenfield has seen it.

Thanks for the back-up.  It's not like I'm saying I don't ever rain, geesh.

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He’d snow , then he’d plain rain. It happens most everytime if Me, Will, and Gay are raining 

Who said anything about ORH raining?  I'm talking about you being south and Ray, while north east of any elevation.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Thanks for the back-up.  It's not like I'm saying I don't ever rain, geesh.

Who said anything about ORH raining?  I'm talking about you being south and Ray, while north east of any elevation.

Your best events are usually mainly snow here, but you can certainly do well while we rain.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

Thanks for the back-up.  It's not like I'm saying I don't ever rain, geesh.

 

It's just kind of a weird thing to root for...it's like me while on winter hill rooting for BOS to rain...yeah, I have gotten some monster whoppers in ORH when BOS was raining, but honestly, most of the good ones are when BOS is snowing too. Even in storms where the rain/snow line sets up near BOS or just west...a lot of the time that means I am dryslotting. Now, I'd probably root for Nantucket and the outer Cape to rain...but not someone within 50-70 miles by way the crow flies. That gets me nervous about dryslots....as a QPF worrier, it's something to think about next time you are rooting for a R/S line in SE MA to push further NW into the 495 belt.

[ORH_wxman]

Meanwhile, the shortwave on the 18z GFS for next Sunday is more interesting.

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's just kind of a weird thing to root for...it's like me while on winter hill rooting for BOS to rain...yeah, I have gotten some monster whoppers in ORH when BOS was raining, but honestly, most of the good ones are when BOS is snowing too. Even in storms where the rain/snow line sets up near BOS or just west...a lot of the time that means I am dryslotting. Now, I'd probably root for Nantucket and the outer Cape to rain...but not someone within 50-70 miles by way the crow flies. That gets me nervous about dryslots....as a QPF worrier, it's something to think about next time you are rooting for a R/S line in SE MA to push further NW into the 495 belt.

Not MPM!

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just getting caught up with today’s discussion.  Very entertaining and educational.  I appreciate the input by the red taggers and knowledgeable hobbyists.  Thank you

[OceanStWx]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Interesting take.

It seems to be the focus of all the research related to the East Coast lately. The Pacific is a bigger driver than the Atlantic (it's not like we haven't discussed that here either). It's not that something downstream can't have an effect on us, it's just that upstream features have more ways of affecting us. 

It's almost always more beneficial to throw some dropsondes into the Pacific than it is to sample whatever blocking may be to our east.

[CoastalWx]

Man the deep hatred some interior folk have for those to the east is palpable.  

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It seems to be the focus of all the research related to the East Coast lately. The Pacific is a bigger driver than the Atlantic (it's not like we haven't discussed that here either). It's not that something downstream can't have an effect on us, it's just that upstream features have more ways of affecting us. 

It's almost always more beneficial to throw some dropsondes into the Pacific than it is to sample whatever blocking may be to our east.

Pacific will always be king.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It seems to be the focus of all the research related to the East Coast lately. The Pacific is a bigger driver than the Atlantic (it's not like we haven't discussed that here either). It's not that something downstream can't have an effect on us, it's just that upstream features have more ways of affecting us. 

It's almost always more beneficial to throw some dropsondes into the Pacific than it is to sample whatever blocking may be to our east.

Truth Ruth until the Sw hits the pond and stops dead in its tracks, then we say why did it stall, Jan 27th 2015 lives in infamy thanks to a slight bulge of HP preventing an escape east

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Man the deep hatred some interior folk have for those to the east is palpable.  

Almost as much as some hate the Picnic tables

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Almost as much as some hate the Picnic tables

?

[CoastalWx]

Weeklies are impressive. Big time +PNA and a good -NAO week 3. Still a +PNA week 4 and  a sign of decent blocking in Davis Straits. FWIW anyways.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Weeklies are impressive. Big time +PNA and a good -NAO week 3. Still a +PNA week 4 and  a sign of decent blocking in Davis Straits. FWIW anyways.

To the moon Alice!

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Truth Ruth until the Sw hits the pond and stops dead in its tracks, then we say why did it stall, Jan 27th 2015 lives in infamy thanks to a slight bulge of HP preventing an escape east

Which is why I said, it can affect us. Clearly Sandy was dominated by a downstream block, but that certainly isn't the norm.

[moneypitmike]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's just kind of a weird thing to root for...it's like me while on winter hill rooting for BOS to rain...yeah, I have gotten some monster whoppers in ORH when BOS was raining, but honestly, most of the good ones are when BOS is snowing too. Even in storms where the rain/snow line sets up near BOS or just west...a lot of the time that means I am dryslotting. Now, I'd probably root for Nantucket and the outer Cape to rain...but not someone within 50-70 miles by way the crow flies. That gets me nervous about dryslots....as a QPF worrier, it's something to think about next time you are rooting for a R/S line in SE MA to push further NW into the 495 belt.

Two things:

1) this was not intended to derail the thread and

2) my initial comment was in response to comments regarding suppression of systems.  I was lamenting the scrapers that give south and eastern zones hefty snows while GC is enjoying dim sun.

 

Enough--we'll see how the season goes.  Enjoy the upcoming pattern!

[OceanStWx]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

Two things:

1) this was not intended to derail the thread and

2) my initial comment was in response to comments regarding suppression of systems.  I was lamenting the scrapers that give south and eastern zones hefty snows while GC is enjoying dim sun.

 

Enough--we'll see how the season goes.  Enjoy the upcoming pattern!

Spoken like a NNEer.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Which is why I said, it can affect us. Clearly Sandy was dominated by a downstream block, but that certainly isn't the norm.

Luv me some transient Miller B blocks, the list is long, lets start with Feb 6th 1978.

http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Phasing_Storms.html

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Bingo. The favored atmospheric state for high model certainty is a torchy one for most of the CONUS. What we are here trying to nail is the ridging and blocks.

It took me a while to accept it, but Dr. Colucci was right, high pressures are sexy too.

Remember that 1995-1996 ?

I don't know how old you are ...or if your science-sentient legs were under you by then or not, but you should go back and check out the incredible high amplitude (curvi-linear) pattern, that also boasted some incredible verifications that year. 

We used to remark how that was actually kind of a bad thing because it sort of got expectations a little high.

I also wonder if there's been a bit of a talent drain in the extended offices - NCEP used to put out dandy talks about the mid range and extended that sorry, they were far better ...pithy with insights and less 'fear' of extrapolation and/or worth-while/educated supposition, helping to build consensus ... much of which I recall came true more often than not. Could have issued watches 4th period and scored mightily that season.  That was not zonal ...

I'm not here to dispute what you are saying - it's true that zonal flow is easier on the runs ... But there are some interesting exceptions.

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Just getting caught up with today’s discussion.  Very entertaining and educational.  I appreciate the input by the red taggers and knowledgeable hobbyists.  Thank you

Not a problem man. That’s why we are here 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Spoken like a NNEer.

Scarred by 2014-2015...lol.

He forgets he jackpotted in storms like Jan 12, 2011 or Octobomb 2011 which left NNE north of dendrite sniffing flurries. I mean, I get it...I used to think that way too sometimes in ORH...like I really needed Taunton or New Bedford to be raining...but most of our good storms have them snowing too. Even our jackpots. There's exceptions like December 1996...but they are not the rule.

 

Anyways, we won't really need to parse those types of difference yet in the pattern analysis...it looks good for everyone right now.

[OceanStWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Remember that 1995-1996 ?

I don't know how old you are ...or if your science-sentient legs were under you by then or not, but you should go back and check out the incredible high amplitude (curvi-linear) pattern, that also boasted some incredible verifications that year. 

We used to remark how that was actually kind of a bad thing because it sort of got expectations a little high.

Oh I remember it, but I was building snow forts in in the banks next to the driveway not digging into model guidance.

And it's not to say that models can't verify well in a blocky Pacific, it's just that the pattern carries a greater degree of inherent uncertainty. We are starting to develop those tools however to tease out where that uncertainty originates from, in at least an attempt to figure out if the models are sniffing something out.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Oh I remember it, but I was building snow forts in in the banks next to the driveway not digging into model guidance.

And it's not to say that models can't verify well in a blocky Pacific, it's just that the pattern carries a greater degree of inherent uncertainty. We are starting to develop those tools however to tease out where that uncertainty originates from, in at least an attempt to figure out if the models are sniffing something out.

I like the cluster stuff. It takes the EOFs and at least lets you see the "clusters" if you will...governing the mean. 

[Ginx snewx]

I think back to some great storms where the Pacific was crap like 12/5/03 and others, Pacific being on board is obviously very key but we have had some doozies with a Neggie PNA due to some blocked up Atlantic flow forcing strong vort maxes out of Canada south

[OceanStWx]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I like the cluster stuff. It takes the EOFs and at least lets you see the "clusters" if you will...governing the mean. 

I do too. It's nice to visualize how if the shortwave is stronger, it sends surface lows more NW, or deeper, or whatever. It's not just here's your range of solutions, but here's what this range of solutions has in common.