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Late autumn, early winter model mayhem

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

Lets just say the late friday storm starts showing a more consolidated vortex tommorrow and we have a further west and stronger system would there be any cold air drain inland or would it be a Rainer potentially to 495.

The lact of talk about this makes me ask. Seems everyone is hoping for a stronger vort and further west track but how would boundary layer temps behave,  is there any wiggle room

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Lets just say the late friday storm starts showing a more consolidated vortex tommorrow and we have a further west and stronger system would there be any cold air drain inland or would it be a Rainer potentially to 495.

The lact of talk about this makes me ask. Seems everyone is hoping for a stronger vort and further west track but how would boundary layer temps behave,  is there any wiggle room

It could possible cause a little more mix on the coast, but unless this somehow tucked way west..I don't think west of 128 or N of 128 needs to worry. Hell, heavier precip may be a good thing too. It looks like we should have good nrly ageostrophic flow with this one.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Probably time for storm threads...

It would be nice if any of these were actually "threatening". 

Its sort of feels like a mishmash of 1 in 4 chance type systems...collectively you have a solid chance of one hitting over the next 8 days but each of them individually is quite precarious. 

For SE MA the Friday night/early Saturday system though feels like 50/50 or better perhaps. 

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It would be nice if any of these were actually "threatening". 

Its sort of feels like a mishmash of 1 in 4 chance type systems...collectively you have a solid chance of one hitting over the next 8 days but each of them individually is quite precarious. 

For SE MA the Friday night/early Saturday system though feels like 50/50 or better perhaps. 

It only snows in SE MA. :ph34r:

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It would be nice if any of these were actually "threatening". 

Its sort of feels like a mishmash of 1 in 4 chance type systems...collectively you have a solid chance of one hitting over the next 8 days but each of them individually is quite precarious. 

For SE MA the Friday night/early Saturday system though feels like 50/50 or better perhaps. 

I’m sure someone somewhere along the line will get something over the next few weeks. It does kind of have the feel of “maybe the next one will work out” or “ the real threat is after these next 3 small threats” like nothing worthwhile is actually imminent 

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't know about deepening "rates"  ...but the CSB got to a unworldly low inland continental pressure depth. I think it bottomed at 955 MB as it was passing over Lake Erie in to southern Ontario.

Yes, I was in Kalamazoo Michigan for that one... the snow was waste deep, but I was very young ...  No the airport record 32" of snow and peak wind gust on two occasions in excess of 90 mph ... both were quite unimaginable for deep inside the continent - though Lake Michigan probably did assist some of the snow totals (just assuming so...).

The afternoon before it struck there was an eerie undulating sky with excessively fast tact motion toward the SW, while these gulf ball-sized parachute aggregates spaced literally like one every 50 feet floated down. Very strange ... in memory, I get/got the impression like it was a dam about to burst because of those sky and air features.. getting closer and closer.

It didn't really do much through the evening as I recall (and believe me, as a fledgling nuclear turbo powered weather dweeb, I remember everything in vivid detail!).  I remember calling the local weather line 333-1212 ... the recording said there was a winter storm warning in effect for 4-8" of snow, possibly as much as a foot.  9 pm came the dreaded announcement:  Bedtime...  "Momm!"

No worries... I would ultimately be forced from slumber around 2:30 am by the sounds of rattling at a window that had snow encased to the top and dim yellow glow failing to completely shine through from what turned out to be about the most heavily obscured street lamp I have to this date ever seen. Still waiting to see a pale yellow dot through an abyss nocturnal gray again... from a mere 50 feet away. While it all moved sideways, sintered to the point of thick whirring dust, truly and non-figuratively, choking. 

I was down stairs by then in front of the big living room picture window that set out over the front yard ... Davis St just beyond... Said street lamp was literally at the corner just off the front lawn and it was essentially zero visibility but it was the power of the light that of course made some fractal attempts to get through.  And the white nose over the house from the titanic gusts was also something I have to this day never observed in a concurrent snow event, at least not at the agonizing wail of that - it almost sounded like Earth was in ague.  I've seen heavy snow that would pop your eyes in awe. I've heard winds of that ilk upon other occasions... I've even heard loud gusts in snow storms, sure - but nothing that has  matched that shear arresting insignificance of man ... really.  Beyond the endurance of...as whole families perished in farmsteads in out-state Michigan.  

Yeah, that's never been beat in my mind.  Grade 1 numero uno top dawg absolutely honors... 2nd place is a few paces back at best, too.  But, then there is a tight cluster between 6th and 2nd ...  Granted, just talking my own experience - I'm sure others have their own lists and anecdotal accounts and ranks...   Dec 9-11, 1992 is right up there ... just the shear awe of what that did was, for an undergrad in Meteorology at the time, an absolute trip out back the shed in dynamics...I haven't seen anything "dynamical" quite like that since..  Different story however.  

So the storm raged on for 3 1/2 days ... probably losing like 4% intensity every hour upon average.  I remember day 5 the sun was shining between face smack LE bands. Like, ...please, we're starving for more after THAT.  christ.   Nothing else happened that year...  maybe something minor in March...  ? yeah.  Then we busted spring open

Tip, I've always loved your descriptions of this storm.  It was before my time and where I am currently was outside of the absolute worst conditions, but it was intense enough based on the obs and accounts I've come across.  Certainly one I would love to see in my lifetime, and a big part of my interest would be in how modern modeling would look for such an extreme event.  

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