Hoth Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: it was 973 on the BM? That's a beast for SNE if that happens. Per weather.us yes. Also actually down to 944 north of ME lol! May be the lowest I've ever seen the Euro go in a winter system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Well if that's the case, then that is pretty developed at that point. Granted it seems to get even more powerful as it goes N of there, but as Steve said 973 is a powerful system. And if it's strengthening as it goes that's a big system for the area...at least one would think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well if that's the case, then that is pretty developed at that point. Granted it seems to get even more powerful as it goes N of there, but as Steve said 973 is a powerful system. And if it's strengthening as it goes that's a big system for the area...at least one would think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, WintersComing said: 6 hrs later is when it's near the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, Hoth said: Per weather.us yes. Also actually down to 944 north of ME lol! May be the lowest I've ever seen the Euro go in a winter system. Thats a Sandy right there..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoth said: 6 hrs later is when it's near the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 11 minutes ago, Hoth said: Per weather.us yes. Also actually down to 944 north of ME lol! May be the lowest I've ever seen the Euro go in a winter system. Could be wrong but BM is at 40/70 correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 It closed off at the surface close to 42/67 @973 mb but not at H5 until it was in Canada, Not that it matters much at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: It closed off close to 42/67 not that it matters much at this point Not trying to split hairs for sure but in reading earlier discussions I was under the impression that we wanted this to develop sooner ie closer to the actual BM? Again not tryin to nit pick but just understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 EPS banging next week, hard. Like no protection, just straight smashing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, WintersComing said: Not trying to split hairs for sure but in reading earlier discussions I was under the impression that we wanted this to develop sooner ie closer to the actual BM? Again not tryin to nit pick but just understand. No prob, Yes, Everyone would like to see this close off and be stacked over the BM or just inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: No prob, Yes, Everyone would like to see this close off and be stacked over the BM or just inside. kk...makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Circulation on this was very broad as well so it could affect many here, Even the folks in Western MA and VT............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: EPS banging next week, hard. Like no protection, just straight smashing it. Eh, I'd be a little careful there...has late bloomer look written all over it. Just something to be guarded against. It develops very rapidly...no doubt there is a strong signal on ensembles for it. But it has a classic Miller B East look. It is developing pretty close by, like just S of LI or near BID and then rapidly moving NE. Where it develops explosively is key...if it starts developing down around ACY then most of SNE will get hit hard...but if it waits until near E LI or S of BID, then its an E MA/ME special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2017 Author Share Posted December 5, 2017 That's a damaging event there... as in sh!t happening to reality exposed to the elements... There are certain fundamental aspects of the atmosphere ... and that much excessive deepening can't happen without shock and awe restoring forces ... I can't even begin to guess at the isol. wind component.... 996 to 948 mb in 12 hours is ...well, I wonder if that can even happen in the first place. But that's a very special special evolution being depicted across that critical 9 hours there... It's not just the isol wind, but it's hugely augmented by the fact that you simply cannot pop the top off the atmosphere like that with 5 isotachs closing off across like 5 hours and not fold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 I like a general 2-4” snowfall for SNE Fri nite into Saturday . Gefs are juiced and there’s some west EPS members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Did the weeklies come out yet? If so how's the long range look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Finally something to get 'cited about. Lots of support from other models as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Eh, I'd be a little careful there...has late bloomer look written all over it. Just something to be guarded against. It develops very rapidly...no doubt there is a strong signal on ensembles for it. But it has a classic Miller B East look. It is developing pretty close by, like just S of LI or near BID and then rapidly moving NE. Where it develops explosively is key...if it starts developing down around ACY then most of SNE will get hit hard...but if it waits until near E LI or S of BID, then its an E MA/ME special. For a D8 signal, thats a bang to me. Of course you know I worry about late blooming Miller B’s but at this lead time, me not concerned yet. Just give me a good signal on the most reliable piece of guidance and I’ll take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Did the weeklies come out yet? If so how's the long range look. They were locked in for the rest of the month. EPS supports them too...they show the next reload of the EPO starting 12/20 at the end of their run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Eh, I'd be a little careful there...has late bloomer look written all over it. Just something to be guarded against. It develops very rapidly...no doubt there is a strong signal on ensembles for it. But it has a classic Miller B East look. It is developing pretty close by, like just S of LI or near BID and then rapidly moving NE. Where it develops explosively is key...if it starts developing down around ACY then most of SNE will get hit hard...but if it waits until near E LI or S of BID, then its an E MA/ME special. Yep, lets see if it can capture earlier, or its PF mega upslope city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I like a general 2-4” snowfall for SNE Fri nite into Saturday . Gefs are juiced and there’s some west EPS members Euro looks like 1-3” for Bos Pvd Southeast. Highest amounts look to be further SE you go. Looked like flurries for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: They were locked in for the rest of the month. EPS supports them too...they show the next reload of the EPO starting 12/20 at the end of their run. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Eh, I'd be a little careful there...has late bloomer look written all over it. Just something to be guarded against. It develops very rapidly...no doubt there is a strong signal on ensembles for it. But it has a classic Miller B East look. It is developing pretty close by, like just S of LI or near BID and then rapidly moving NE. Where it develops explosively is key...if it starts developing down around ACY then most of SNE will get hit hard...but if it waits until near E LI or S of BID, then its an E MA/ME special. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2017 Author Share Posted December 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Eh, I'd be a little careful there...has late bloomer look written all over it. Just something to be guarded against. It develops very rapidly...no doubt there is a strong signal on ensembles for it. But it has a classic Miller B East look. It is developing pretty close by, like just S of LI or near BID and then rapidly moving NE. Where it develops explosively is key...if it starts developing down around ACY then most of SNE will get hit hard...but if it waits until near E LI or S of BID, then its an E MA/ME special. This is a coup de etat for me ... I was waiting on the EPS so show any semblance of capitulation to this sort of thing running up the NE Coast... as the GEFs derived tele's have the apex of a PNA pulse timed nearly perfectly with an actual amplitude of the PNAP (N/A part of the total domain) - that in its self means you watch the nadir of the trough whether you have velocity/gradient mitgators or not... I'm thinking that one around mid month has better mass - support than anything that's been modeled to occur before that time - so we'll see.. But, once the higher resolution operational versions start honing in a mid range solution ... the ensembles then trending that way is usually boding though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Euro looks like 1-3” for Bos Pvd Southeast. Highest amounts look to be further SE you go. Looked like flurries for you. I could def see it backing NW some...pretty steep eastern wall of the trough butting up against the WAR. We may have to wait another couple cycles before it makes its move based on Chris's sensitivity analysis. We'll find out soon enough...I could see either scenario happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Dougy Simonian The GEFS even has some legitimate ridging building back into Greenland in response to the TPV becoming more elongated. It's a really nice look for multiple big winter storm threats from 12/15 and onward. And yes, 12/13 has legs. So has " not the pattern for a big one" dissipated ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 12 Z OP comparison 192 hrs 216 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, kdxken said: So has " not the pattern for a big one" dissipated ? By that point, sure....always expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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