ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Sunday shortwave still digs pretty good on euro so I won't be surprised if that one comes back a little. The good thing about this pattern though is that with that ridge out west, it's a loaded gun...if the weekend threats all fail, there's another right in the pipeline. 12/13 has been a date of interest for a few days now on ensembles. 12/16 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Days and days of cirrus..... Yes...a lot different than days and days of snow. As we thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 The overnight runs were pretty interesting. If things hold I might draw first blood in the snowstorm dept. Pattern looks awesome leading up to Christmas. Haven't said that in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yes...a lot different than days and days of snow. As we thought. Don’t rule out anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Euro right off the bat, has that classic tail of vorticity at hr 78, hanging back into SOCAL. GFS has a feature similar, but not as glaring as the euro op. That's sort of a euro bias I feel like...however I would not rule it out 100%. Just something I noticed. That feature doesn't allow the flow to buckle and developing ridging in the western Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 22 minutes ago, weathafella said: Don’t rule out anything. Don’t bother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Yes...a lot different than days and days of snow. As we thought. No melting allowedSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 As we close into being ‘in the pattern’, have to be happy that a) it is as modeled and b ) there isn’t a breakdown in sight. We may strikeout a few times but I prefer to be in the box constantly than sit in the dugout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: OTS for all. But it wasn't supposed to stop snowing until Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Don’t rule out anything. Jer, I'm officially on the record as ruling out days and days of snow like was claimed....I mean how ridiculous. A coating to a few inches on Friday if you're out east...sure, and who knows what Sunday's shortwave is going to do? But the whole days and days of light snow(Friday night-Sunday night)...that was a joke from the moment it was said. And if it were to happen...I'd gladly give credit where it's due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: As we close into being ‘in the pattern’, have to be happy that a) it is as modeled and b ) there isn’t a breakdown in sight. Agreed. Good post and point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: But it wasn't supposed to stop snowing until Sunday. days and days of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2017 Author Share Posted December 5, 2017 I dunno... the last 7 days of this pattern change saga in the models has featured a pretty clear and prevalent ... "lowest common denominator aspect" ... regardless of model, and that is to mute events at least excuse imagined... Even if a given model cycle attempts to buck that trend and 'kink' enough here and there, what happens on the next run? SMASH... mashed out of existence by this compressed, high velocity flow. The LCD above of muting events (unfortunately...) fits that, so seeing the models behave that way ...heh, doesn't leave a lot of wiggle room to assume other scenarios. So, I'm inclined to think that folks should really set their expectations toward nothing ... until such further notice when it is appropriate to be pleasantly surprised. Probably short duration lead and for very fast moving minor systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Would help us immensely if we could get the best surface pressure falls along the Northern Gulf Coast around hr 78 on the 6z GFS. Need a stronger shortwave to make this one produce for a majority of the subforum. Flow is fast; system needs to get going early or it will be too late for most who are north/west of I95.. 6z GFS was a step in the right direction... GEFS trends are also positive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 51 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: As we close into being ‘in the pattern’, have to be happy that a) it is as modeled and b ) there isn’t a breakdown in sight. We may strikeout a few times but I prefer to be in the box constantly than sit in the dugout. Very true, though it's less than inspiring to see the gfs with the rain event followed by 14 days of near-zero qpf. At least it will get cold, though nothing special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Euro right off the bat, has that classic tail of vorticity at hr 78, hanging back into SOCAL. GFS has a feature similar, but not as glaring as the euro op. That's sort of a euro bias I feel like...however I would not rule it out 100%. Just something I noticed. That feature doesn't allow the flow to buckle and developing ridging in the western Atlantic. I call BS. Won't be a major event, but should get on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Jer, I'm officially on the record as ruling out days and days of snow like was claimed....I mean how ridiculous. A coating to a few inches on Friday if you're out east...sure, and who knows what Sunday's shortwave is going to do? But the whole days and days of light snow(Friday night-Sunday night)...that was a joke from the moment it was said. And if it were to happen...I'd gladly give credit where it's due. Jesus, you are obsessed with Kevin. Perhaps Santa will leave you a pair of his boxers post morning jog under the tree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Jesus, you are obsessed with Kevin. Perhaps Santa will leave you a pair of his boxers post morning jog under the tree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Jesus, you are obsessed with Kevin. Perhaps Santa will leave you a pair of his boxers post morning jog under the tree? Lol, I agree with him that the "Days and days of snow" is horsecrap though....but yeah, he does love to rip on his posts. 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I call BS. Won't be a major event, but should get on the board. Yeah I'll be surprised if we "escape" this weekend without measurable. Could happen, but that's a lot of dodging bullets for us to get completely whiffed with the amped trough and multiple shortwaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Of course its BS...but just let it go lol Kevin could insist the world is triangular, and winter wolf would blow a gasket for hours fighting with him lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Jesus, you are obsessed with Kevin. Perhaps Santa will leave you a pair of his boxers post morning jog under the tree? Not obsessed just sick of the BS posts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Not obsessed just sick of the BS posts.... Must be the wolf in ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Then block me and end everyone’s misery you are causing. Either that or count to 10 before hitting the “submit” button Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Then block me and end everyone’s misery you are causing. Either that or count to 10 before hitting the “submit” button Is that kinda like a -NAO and +NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: win obsessed just sick of the BS po sts.... Hes like Whitey Back in his hey day, not gonna Win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 So its ok to give erroneous and nonsense info on here?? I thought this place was different...a place where one could get accurate info..not BS lies and fantasy ideas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Can someone plz analyze the 84h NAM and let me know if I need to make preparations for the impending 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Euro right off the bat, has that classic tail of vorticity at hr 78, hanging back into SOCAL. GFS has a feature similar, but not as glaring as the euro op. That's sort of a euro bias I feel like...however I would not rule it out 100%. Just something I noticed. That feature doesn't allow the flow to buckle and developing ridging in the western Atlantic. Congrats SW Texas and Mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2017 Author Share Posted December 5, 2017 57 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Would help us immensely if we could get the best surface pressure falls along the Northern Gulf Coast around hr 78 on the 6z GFS. Need a stronger shortwave to make this one produce for a majority of the subforum. Flow is fast; system needs to get going early or it will be too late for most who are north/west of I95.. 6z GFS was a step in the right direction... GEFS trends are also positive... Bingo ! ...that's really it, right there. The faster the flow, the strong the S/W has to be. It's vector calculus really --- .. S/W have a wind max (not speaking to you, but the general reader), and the "typical" S/W is around ... 90 kts give or take... with an entrance and exit region as the entire wave structure the wind max is embedded in ... attempts to move through the flow. If the wind, prior to the exit region of the jet ... is already 90 kts... do that math. Using that as an example, that = 0 difference. The difference is why the S/W goes on to generate storminess.. That's about as simple as one can put it when typing text into a social-media outlet. ...we could get into restoring forces, and q-vectors that result from difference that are greater than 0... but it will probably glaze eyes over, and Mets already know it... blah blah. But if the difference is large, you get massive restoring, and that restoring is what causes the cyclone to form when factoring in all the planetary/physical variables into the kinematic package. When this pattern started sniffin' out 10 days ago or whenever that was, I was apprehensive right off the bat. Hell, I remember saying in a couple posts back in October (actually) that I was going to be looking for the plaguing compression and too fast thing that was also ubiquitous over the last two winters ... Well, here we are... same god damn thing. And, that's spanning disparate ENSO states so I'm not sure that's culprit in why this keeps happening... Oh I have ideas - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Can someone plz analyze the 84h NAM and let me know if I need to make preparations for the impending 8-12" You're good but New Orleans gonna need to buy bread and milk lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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