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Late autumn, early winter model mayhem

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

If you don't want to actually discuss meteorology - Twitter or the Accuweather forums are a great option for you.

People who only want to see about the cold, snowy, extreme solution and ignore the others will be disappointed more often that not. 

Actually, Accuweather forums have improved quite a bit over the last few years....it's not what it used to be.  There is some very intelligent meteorological conversations that go on over there...a few knowledgeable folks over there that are in the know...like here.   

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Sugarloaf1989

Sugarloaf1989

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Actually, Accuweather forums have improved quite a bit over the last few years....it's not what it used to be.  There is some very intelligent meteorological conversations that go on over there...a few knowledgeable folks over there that are in the know...like here.   

That Nor Easter poster is about as dedicated to weather as anyone I have come across.

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Hazey

Hazey

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

So this talked about major pattern change that is coming is not a sustained one?. I thought we had a positive PNA, negative EPO, negative AO and a negative NAO. Don't we need a negative NAO so storms don't cut?.  I was hoping for a white Christmas for once!.

Pssssssst.....we don't need a -NAO here to get snowstorms. In fact we do better with a slightly neg to neutral. It can be good for New England though.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Hazey said:

Pssssssst.....we don't need a -NAO here to get snowstorms. In fact we do better with a slightly neg to neutral. It can be good for New England though.

I think we do better with transient blocking that slows or stalls systems, super blocks are a godsend to the MA and sometimes the southern coast of NE. Over the years on here I have seen a gradual change in thinking. 5 to 10 years ago it was NAO this and NAO that for winter, then came the realization that monthly NAO values really didn't matter to individual storms, transient blocks on a daily basis mattered more. Super NAO years like 09/10 showed what could happen if there was too much blocking. I am big on PNA, EPO AO, get us the cold it will snow. I like the pattern depicted on the models, just have a caution flag for suppression early on. The block lessens and that is when I think we can get a strong Miller B or maybe even a STJ

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

The ridging is plain to see, but I noted two very important and sometimes underrated things. Note in green, the trough axis that helps with convergence and srfc high pressure to the north....and then the trough axis extending from Hudson Bay to help sharper the s/w's approaching the east coast.

 

 

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The ridging is plain to see, but I noted two very important and sometimes underrated things. Note in green, the trough axis that helps with convergence and srfc high pressure to the north....and then the trough axis extending from Hudson Bay to help sharper the s/w's approaching the east coast.

 

 

The staying power of that trough is incredible because of the blocking. Doesn't look like it's in hurry to leave quickly by the end of that run.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

An NAO block is basically sustained by definition...blocking is closing off and reversing the flow. You're normally gonna have a minimum of around a week to get rid of it once it forms. 

 

I think people should understand what blocking actually is and what it isn't. Red colors over Greenland doesn't mean it is blocking. It means above normal heights. Above normal heights can be due to ridging in the North Atlantic that pokes up into Greenland. It often sends the NAO negative, and it can sometimes act like a pseudo block....but it's moveable. It will not stop stronger cutters usually...it can maybe deflect something a little less vigorous from being an inland runner or something or a weakfish St Lawrence valley runner. A true block like January 12, 2011 will turn what might be a real cutter into a bowling ball miller B...that thing was already negatively tilted over Kansas City. Ditto Lindsay Storm 1969, and March 3, 1960. These types of blocks aren't as common obviously and we don't always need them so ginxy is right in that we can really just clean up on these transient type ridges or other minor features that act to enhance confluence over Quebec. Our geography, latitude, and topography allows these imperfections compared to further south.

 

But the true blocks (esp west based) will tend to really limit the chance of cutters...they can still happen, but it's very difficult. If anyone in New England experienced winters like 2007-2008, 2014-2015, or 1993-1994, they will know that you don't need a -NAO to have a lot of snow.

 

I should add that true blocking is hard to predict based just on ensemble means beyond 10 days...because of the smoothing, you will rarely actually have a true block on an ensemble mean.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Any talk of suppression causes angst for GC.  Give us rain through KTOL and Ray and we rock (sorry Kevin and Ray--just saying how we live/die here in GC).

You probably get rain in 95% of the storms where it is raining in Tolland to Ray's hood.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I don't think that's a fair comparison.  I'd say I snow in about 95% of the time they snow as well.  I'm talking about where the line sets up.  I rock in those instances.

Oh yeah, well if the mix line sets up over their heads, then yeah...you'll do very well. But that is very rare for the mix line to be on top of them as mostly stationary...typically it's transient. But in all honesty, most of your jackpots occurred in storms where Ray and Kevin were snowing...we're talking about January 12, 2011, October 2011, February 2014, etc. There's a few exceptions like the February 24, 2010 paste bomb (but even that eventually changed to rain in your hood)...and Dec 26-27, 2012 was pretty "mixey" over Ray-Kevin, though I don't think they really saw much if any rain. Some taint perhaps.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Oh yeah, well if the mix line sets up over their heads, then yeah...you'll do very well. But that is very rare for the mix line to be on top of them as mostly stationary...typically it's transient. But in all honesty, most of your jackpots occurred in storms where Ray and Kevin were snowing...we're talking about January 12, 2011, October 2011, February 2014, etc. There's a few exceptions like the February 24, 2010 paste bomb (but even that eventually changed to rain in your hood).

I think there are at tons of instances where they're pinging/mixing and ORH out through here are ripping dendrites.  I don't think I"m making that up, but you've got a better memory than I.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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Posted
31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

An NAO block is basically sustained by definition...blocking is closing off and reversing the flow. You're normally gonna have a minimum of around a week to get rid of it once it forms. 

 

I think people should understand what blocking actually is and what it isn't. Red colors over Greenland doesn't mean it is blocking. It means above normal heights. Above normal heights can be due to ridging in the North Atlantic that pokes up into Greenland. It often sends the NAO negative, and it can sometimes act like a pseudo block....but it's moveable. It will not stop stronger cutters usually...it can maybe deflect something a little less vigorous from being an inland runner or something or a weakfish St Lawrence valley runner. A true block like January 12, 2011 will turn what might be a real cutter into a bowling ball miller B...that thing was already negatively tilted over Kansas City. Ditto Lindsay Storm 1969, and March 3, 1960. These types of blocks aren't as common obviously and we don't always need them so ginxy is right in that we can really just clean up on these transient type ridges or other minor features that act to enhance confluence over Quebec. Our geography, latitude, and topography allows these imperfections compared to further south.

 

But the true blocks (esp west based) will tend to really limit the chance of cutters...they can still happen, but it's very difficult. If anyone in New England experienced winters like 2007-2008, 2014-2015, or 1993-1994, they will know that you don't need a -NAO to have a lot of snow.

 

I should add that true blocking is hard to predict based just on ensemble means beyond 10 days...because of the smoothing, you will rarely actually have a true block on an ensemble mean.

Which is why a -NAO may and may not be so useful for winter enthusiasts here... 

This is a good opportunity to elucidate my point ... -NAO isn't well-enough understood (for other reasons, like that you stated right there..) and folks really shouldn't blanket assess things based upon it.  Actual 'blocks' in the NAO domain, particularly west versus east, do decidedly different forcing numbers on the flow compared to large amplitude ridges in that/those vicinity.   

It's probably true for any of those, but the problem with the NAO is that it's effect is "back drilling" ... It more than just seems modeling has trouble assessing how downstream events "back-log" forcing as opposed to when said forcing is driving things going west to east.  

I keep coming back to a hypothesis that I have where we've been looking at the NAO wrongly all along - it's not the -NAO ..it's stuff going on upstream from NE of Japan all the way to the Alaska sector and then across mid-latitudes of N/A that's doing it, and the NAO just happens to be exhaust (for lack of better words); we keep seeing the exhaust and thinking that's what's doing it. 

I was being snarky and droll earlier, and folks took it the wrong way in this super uptight nervy touchy bastion of emotion co-dependence of winter climate (understood) but I definitely believe the standard model of NAO that stemmed(s) from the 1980/'90s needs some polish. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I think there are at tons of instances where they're pinging/mixing and ORH out through here are ripping dendrites.  I don't think I"m making that up, but you've got a better memory than I.

Well a few pings or briefly mixing is a lot different than raining through Tolland and Wilmington, MA...you originally said you wanted rain right through that region. I definitely would not want rain through Tolland to Ray if I lived in your 'hood. Maybe a brief kiss with the mix/ping line.

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