Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Fat flow regimes, especially those with origins in the Arctic, can be notoriously difficult to sort out in advanced lead times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Based on the overnight runs, model guidance sensitivity was most significant in the day 3-5 period, so it may be another 48 hours before guidance starts honing in. There at least was a consistent signal for a higher ridge out west, sharper downstream side of the ridge (i.e. lower heights there), and a deeper s/wv moving through the eastern trof. That favored the amplification of low pressure off New England. That system is definitely one in the back of my mind that it could come back close pretty quickly once we get inside of 84 hours. Not the exact same setup, but 2/5/16 actually went from almost a complete whiff at 60 hours to a huge event. It will be interesting to see if that happens again. It seems like guidance often underestimates the vortmaxima too and then as we get closer, they will help juice up downstream ridging a bit. But this is a fast flow with a lot of pices, so a non-event wouldn't surprise me at all. One of those other shortwaves though would probably produce something though if this first one kicks east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Nice gfs run, action jackson. Can’t pin individual systems in this regime until maybe 72 hours out imo but we take this look all day all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: there's Tblizz, then there is this--the anti-Tblizz Mesh em together and you have equilibrium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That system is definitely one in the back of my mind that it could come back close pretty quickly once we get inside of 84 hours. Not the exact same setup, but 2/5/16 actually went from almost a complete whiff at 60 hours to a huge event. It will be interesting to see if that happens again. It seems like guidance often underestimates the vortmaxima too and then as we get closer, they will help juice up downstream ridging a bit. But this is a fast flow with a lot of pices, so a non-event wouldn't surprise me at all. One of those other shortwaves though would probably produce something though if this first one kicks east. I mean that s/wv in question is south of the Aleutians right now. Not exactly a well sampled region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 51 minutes ago, dryslot said: Lake effect machine should kick in for those areas the next 10 days or so Work is sending me on Weds for a week to Buffalo. I can't wait. Hoping to get buried. Does anyone know what the best area would be to get a hotel for lake effect in the Buffalo area? I get to pick the hotel as long as it's under $100 a night. Orhwxman mentioned south of Buffalo would be best? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, BrianW said: Work is sending me on Weds for a week to Buffalo. I can't wait. Hoping to get buried. Does anyone know what the best area would be to get a hotel for lake effect in the Buffalo area? Near the airport is not a bad spot. Or anywhere south like Hamburg, NY. That's near the heart of the les belt. You had mentioned north of the city a few days ago...but north would be a less favorable spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Mesh em together and you have equilibrium. Weensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 19 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: there's Tblizz, then there is this--the anti-Tblizz Lol good one. I'm shocked that James would think a Major storm is coming for New England...just shocked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 15 minutes ago, dendrite said: Weensembles. I bet we could make a pretty accurate ensemble model by taking weenie posts and applying a "correction" formula....I.E. we take Kevin's snow forecast and lop off 60%, apply a mild inverse correlation to tauntonblizzard's post, multiply lavarock's snow expectation by 2, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I bet we could make s pretty accurate ensemble model by taking weenie posts and applying a "correction" formula....I.E. we take Kevin's snow forecast and lop off 60%, apply a mild inverse correlation to tauntonblizzard's post, multiply lavarock's snow expectation by 2, etc. What would we incorporate for your posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I bet we could make s pretty accurate ensemble model by taking weenie posts and applying a "correction" formula....I.E. we take Kevin's snow forecast and lop off 60%, apply a mild inverse correlation to tauntonblizzard's post, multiply lavarock's snow expectation by 2, etc. That map would have a very extreme gradient over certain areas, There would never be any snow in western Mass............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I bet we could make s pretty accurate ensemble model by taking weenie posts and applying a "correction" formula....I.E. we take Kevin's snow forecast and lop off 60%, apply a mild inverse correlation to tauntonblizzard's post, multiply lavarock's snow expectation by 2, etc. + (MPM QPF * 1.25) + (James MSLP corrected 50mi west) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What would be incorporate for your posts? I'm an actual met so I wasn't including pro posts...but I can. I'd prob apply like a 3-5% warming correction to mine. I run slightly cold...or at least I used to back when I last did an objective grading based on two months of sample. Admittedly this was like 5-6 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: + (MPM QPF * 1.25) + (James MSLP corrected 50mi west) Hate to say it but I think James would need his very own formula Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: What would we incorporate for your posts? A cherry on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: A cherry on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, WintersComing said: Hate to say it but I think James would need his very own formula Gulf Stream - 2C MSLP + 20mb QPF * 0.75 u/v wind * 0.50 coriolis * 0.90 BL + 5F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Gulf Stream - 2C MSLP + 20mb QPF * 0.75 u/v wind * 0.50 coriolis * 0.90 BL + 5F Does this factor the inland location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Gulf Stream - 2C MSLP + 20mb QPF * 0.75 u/v wind * 0.50 coriolis * 0.90 BL + 5F True and Tested!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Gulf Stream - 2C MSLP + 20mb QPF * 0.75 u/v wind * 0.50 coriolis * 0.90 BL + 5F Lavarock QPF = QPF * n, where n is the number of mehs in the first 12 hours of the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Looks like euro will be west of 00z run for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 12z Euro looks like it will be a tic or two west of the 0z run based early on at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 You guys are hilarious today, I love it, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Oh, thanks twins. Though it had a flatter look at first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Hour 96 on the EURO shows the upper level low over Ontario, Canada actually further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Still progressive in that fast flow and scoots NE as it gains lat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: Still progressive in that fast flow and scoots NE as it gains lat Yeah it looked like it had the chance to tick west. But, here we go with next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Yeah the EURO is still a whiff for the Friday/Saturday system, but is amplified with the next arctic shortwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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