Late autumn, early winter model mayhem

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Good. It should not always shell ponies and dendrites in here. 

 

I don't think anything should change in terms of looking ahead. If anything, the NAO is probably more important for those in the Mid Atlantic.

Excellent point.

The idea that I have been harping on is that the mid atl needs the PNA and arctic to cooperate...we only need one. The rest just increases confidence in wintery outcomes of any given system.

[dryslot]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Good. It should not always shell ponies and dendrites in here. 

 

I don't think anything should change in terms of looking ahead. If anything, the NAO is probably more important for those in the Mid Atlantic.

I could just about give 2 sh its about it up here for the most part.

[ORH_wxman]

I def noticed the muted NAO look on the 00z EPS.

 

The previous NAO trended weaker too...though as Nick stated, it def still happened. It was just further north and east than some of the earlier progs. The PAC though is all systems go...it just keeps amplifying right to the end of the run.

[CT Rain]

25 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

You had to know it would stir some thangs up. 

If you don't want to actually discuss meteorology - Twitter or the Accuweather forums are a great option for you.

People who only want to see about the cold, snowy, extreme solution and ignore the others will be disappointed more often that not. 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I def noticed the muted NAO look on the 00z EPS.

 

The previous NAO trended weaker too...though as Nick stated, it def still happened. It was just further north and east than some of the earlier progs. The PAC though is all systems go...it just keeps amplifying right to the end of the run.

Yeah all systems go. I posted earlier overnight runs strengthened the -EPO and increased the + PNA. NAO don’t mean jack north of NYC for getting deep winter conditions provided the EPO and AO are both -

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah all systems go. I posted earlier overnight runs strengthened the -EPO and increased the + PNA. NAO don’t mean jack north of NYC for getting deep winter conditions provided the EPO and AO are both -

I would say it is false that the NAO doesn't mean anything...it definitely does. We just rely on it less than further south. A good NAO block can turn a cutter into a Miller B or big front ender triple point system. We can get those without the NAO blocking too, but the NAO just makes it harder to get cutters...it biases everything colder and south.

 

I would say the pattern is still very good though on the EPS so there's obviously no reason to panic unless you were looking for the Kocin Cookbook pattern for a DCA snowstorm. The pacific look is excellent with a lot of cold air dumping into the CONUS and it is not like the NAO is raging positive now on the progs. It is just sort of weakly negative now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I would say it is false that the NAO doesn't mean anything...it definitely does. We just rely on it less than further south. A good NAO block can turn a cutter into a Miller B or big front ender triple point system. We can get those without the NAO blocking too, but the NAO just makes it harder to get cutters...it biases everything colder and south.

 

I would say the pattern is still very good though on the EPS so there's obviously no reason to panic unless you were looking for the Kocin Cookbook pattern for a DCA snowstorm. The pacific look is excellent with a lot of cold air dumping into the CONUS and it is not like the NAO is raging positive now on the progs. It is just sort of weakly negative now.

Yea, the NAO is not useless here...it just makes the needle easier to thread, so to speak.

However we are using a quilt,  and the mid atl a facecloth.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Good. It should not always shell ponies and dendrites in here. 

 

I don't think anything should change in terms of looking ahead. If anything, the NAO is probably more important for those in the Mid Atlantic.

should be fair .. it wasn't just you. 

i seriously poked the hornet's nest with my own contribution to matters... muah hahahaha.

lord

[Ginx snewx]

EPS day 10-15 discussion on NAO strength is kind of silly at this point though given the normal variance and errors at that range dont cha think?

[weathafella]

Meanwhile, remember when tomorrow was going to be much above-5 day prog I think?   Looks like a huge fail on that!

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

EPS day 10-15 discussion on NAO strength is kind of silly at this point though given the normal variance and errors at that range dont cha think?

Maybe, but I think trends are fine to discuss. Maybe it comes back much stronger, but it's 2 runs in a row it weakened. If the trend continues, maybe we don't get much (if any) NAO blocking.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

EPS day 10-15 discussion on NAO strength is kind of silly at this point though given the normal variance and errors at that range dont cha think?

Yup ... 

more so than strength, getting it to happen too...  I've been trying to point out to for folks, lately, that the NAO is so inherently problematic for the models (and the tele's and so forth...) that just because it is positive(negative) ... buyer beware!  

By the way ladies and gentlemen ... ooph... just saw the overnight tele's  - more later.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe, but I think trends are fine to discuss. Maybe it comes back much stronger, but it's 2 runs in a row it weakened. If the trend continues, maybe we don't get much (if any) NAO blocking.

You guys are splitting hairs, Ens smoothing and all. If that goes away that is just a huge huge fail iMHO

 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You guys are splitting hairs, Ens smoothing and all. If that goes away that is just a huge huge fail iMHO

 

 

 

Talking about ensemble guidance trends after D10 is almost always splitting hairs...you rarely see massive changes. You see trends, and they either continue, or they end up being burps. The EPS trend is to weaken the NAO...it looks more transient in the later panels (like 324 and beyond) than the previous runs.

It doesn't matter that much...but if the trend continues then I think expectations of big NAO blocking should be modified. Could end up just being more of a transient N Atlantic ridge that doesn't form into a nice cohesive block that dictates the pattern more.

 

But who knows, maybe it comes back. Is it not okay to discuss the trends?

 

GEFS were still chucking them left and right for the NAO FWIW...

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Talking about ensemble guidance trends after D10 is almost always splitting hairs...you rarely see massive changes. You see trends, and they either continue, or they end up being burps. The EPS trend is to weaken the NAO...it looks more transient in the later panels (like 324 and beyond) than the previous runs.

It doesn't matter that much...but if the trend continues then I think expectations of big NAO blocking should be modified. Could end up just being more of a transient N Atlantic ridge that doesn't form into a nice cohesive block that dictates the pattern more.

 

But who knows, maybe it comes back. Is it not okay to discuss the trends?

 

GEFS were still chucking them left and right for the NAO FWIW...

yea a 1070 over Greenland on todays GFS

[CoastalWx]

I don't see the harm in talking trends. I try to be honest and so do many other mets on here. Otherwise it's the dreaded..."nobody ever said this would happen..." type crap. I simply loathe that. 

[Ginx snewx]

I do worry about suppression, never was a huge big blocking NAO fan, a transient block is cool with me. see today's GFS op for example why

[leo2000]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Talking about ensemble guidance trends after D10 is almost always splitting hairs...you rarely see massive changes. You see trends, and they either continue, or they end up being burps. The EPS trend is to weaken the NAO...it looks more transient in the later panels (like 324 and beyond) than the previous runs.

It doesn't matter that much...but if the trend continues then I think expectations of big NAO blocking should be modified. Could end up just being more of a transient N Atlantic ridge that doesn't form into a nice cohesive block that dictates the pattern more.

 

But who knows, maybe it comes back. Is it not okay to discuss the trends?

 

GEFS were still chucking them left and right for the NAO FWIW...

Doesn't the EPS have a hard time handling such blocking though. Just look at the last time it tried to weaken the blocking. It came back stronger I think. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't see the harm in talking trends. I try to be honest and so do many other mets on here. Otherwise it's the dreaded..."nobody ever said this would happen..." type crap. I simply loathe that. 

 cool, just don't think its really a trend with 2 runs showing slight differences but if you think so that is cool too. JMHO

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't see the harm in talking trends. I try to be honest and so do many other mets on here. Otherwise it's the dreaded..."nobody ever said this would happen..." type crap. I simply loathe that. 

Yeah it's more of a "throwing it out there" type comment...for exactly the reason you said. If the trend does continue, then we'll see an avalanche of posts saying "OMG, the models never predicted this!!11!!"

I know there are plenty of people here who understand the ebbs and flows and don't really need to say much about it...but for those who don't, we'll just throw out a few FYIs so they can observe the nature of the changes that happen.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

 cool, just don't think its really a trend with 2 runs showing slight differences but if you think so that is cool too. JMHO

I also tried to mention the caveats saying it's just something to watch, and could come back. It's not like I was 100% all in.

[Damage In Tolland]

31 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Meanwhile, remember when tomorrow was going to be much above-5 day prog I think?   Looks like a huge fail on that!

Yeah but Wed is 60 unfortunately 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it's more of a "throwing it out there" type comment...for exactly the reason you said. If the trend does continue, then we'll see an avalanche of posts saying "OMG, the models never predicted this!!11!!"

I know there are plenty of people here who understand the ebbs and flows and don't really need to say much about it...but for those who don't, we'll just throw out a few FYIs so they can observe the nature of the changes that happen.

Yep, and for the record....if we do have a sustained block...I will be more than happy to admit being wrong about that. I wasn't buying that a month ago. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, leo2000 said:

Doesn't the EPS have a hard time handling such blocking though. Just look at the last time it tried to weaken the blocking. It came back stronger I think. 

I haven't seen much evidence the EPS struggles with NAO blocking specifically. There was a paper maybe 6 or 7 years ago about how they had a warm bias in the east in the D8-12 period.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yep, and for the record....if we do have a sustained block...I will be more than happy to admit being wrong about that. I wasn't buying that a month ago. 

Yeah I def wasn't buying it. Still a little skeptical about anything sustained...but if we get multiple transient ridges, it could work out.

[leo2000]

So this talked about major pattern change that is coming is not a sustained one?. I thought we had a positive PNA, negative EPO, negative AO and a negative NAO. Don't we need a negative NAO so storms don't cut?.  I was hoping for a white Christmas for once!.

[Sugarloaf1989]

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

If you don't want to actually discuss meteorology - Twitter or the Accuweather forums are a great option for you.

People who only want to see about the cold, snowy, extreme solution and ignore the others will be disappointed more often that not. 

I find Accuweather to have some serious weather conversation and less bickering than this site. Problem is it's more Mid-Atlantic based with membership.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it's more of a "throwing it out there" type comment...for exactly the reason you said. If the trend does continue, then we'll see an avalanche of posts saying "OMG, the models never predicted this!!11!!"

I know there are plenty of people here who understand the ebbs and flows and don't really need to say much about it...but for those who don't, we'll just throw out a few FYIs so they can observe the nature of the changes that happen.

 

 

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep, and for the record....if we do have a sustained block...I will be more than happy to admit being wrong about that. I wasn't buying that a month ago. 

When was it said the block would be sustained?

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

So this talked about major pattern change that is coming is not a sustained one?. I thought we had a positive PNA, negative EPO, negative AO and a negative NAO. Don't we need a negative NAO so storms don't cut?.  I was hoping for a white Christmas for once!.

He was only talking about the NAO....not the rest of the teleconnections.

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

So this talked about major pattern change that is coming is not a sustained one?. I thought we had a positive PNA, negative EPO, negative AO and a negative NAO. Don't we need a negative NAO so storms don't cut?.  I was hoping for a white Christmas for once!.

ever hear of a transient block? How did you do Feb 13, Jan Feb 15?