Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 that is a complex evolution over the weekend... The 06z version of that was similar in that the oper. GFS seems to honing in on two wave signatures in the flow. The first is the original Friday deal...which is getting utterly mashed out of existence by the gradient saturation/uber high wind velocities of the total trough space... That's why it fails to "latch on" the baroclinc field, because the absorption of the S/W is limiting the inflow jets... Then, it has a bit more torque associated with another S/W that careens through the OV toward Sunday. What was hinted at 06z this run goes to town with a solid short duration moderate CCB head for central/eastern zones for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: It's a real weenie presentation, speaking of forecast busts. We had an event in March 1992 that went from clear/partly cloudy the day of to 20" in the PWM area the next morning. And vice versa.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: It's a real weenie presentation, speaking of forecast busts. We had an event in March 1992 that went from clear/partly cloudy the day of to 20" in the PWM area the next morning. Remember it well. It hit the S shore with like 6-10" while I smoked flurries in Brockton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Remember it well. It hit the S shore with like 6-10" while I smoked flurries in Brockton. True middle finger, N/S inverted trof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: True middle finger, N/S inverted trof. I was so mad. That was the winter of meh too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 GGEM is a scraper for Saturday...kind of ugly with the trough actually. Hopefully it's just being typical GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 14 minutes ago, WintersComing said: Looks like a swing and a miss for Saturday on the 12Z GFS. Hmm looks like a snowy weekend to me on the GFS FWIW, nice Miller B blowup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM is a scraper for Saturday...kind of ugly with the trough actually. Hopefully it's just being typical GGEM. It’s been steadfast in producing very little in that timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hmm looks like a snowy weekend to me on the GFS FWIW, nice Miller B blowup That’s a beaut of an inverted trough on that depiction. This is the Climo time of year for them in SNE. I recall several good ones in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hmm looks like a snowy weekend to me on the GFS FWIW, nice Miller B blowup Agree. Was kinda referring to the "bomb" GFS was originally showing a few runs ago. Does look like there is that second SW thats coming around the trough and creating some good lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Lake effect machine should kick in for those areas the next 10 days or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s a beaut of an inverted trough on that depiction. This is the Climo time of year for them in SNE. I recall several good ones in December even the paltry GGEM is 2-4 in SNE, pretty good LES Setup too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 GFS has another Miller B threat for the 13th...its clown range, but this is actually a timeframe the ensembles on all guidance have liked...so maybe something to watch more closely by late this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Looks like that trough starts going a little negative and decent upward motion goin on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Well you have to figure one of these waves moving thru the flow would have to work out or that indeed would be some bad luck if not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: even the paltry GGEM is 2-4 in SNE, pretty good LES Setup too No matter how it shakes out, pretty unanimous agreement ...we are all snow covered by this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s a beaut of an inverted trough on that depiction. This is the Climo time of year for them in SNE. I recall several good ones in December I am not sure there is a preferred climo time for them. We had a good one in Dec 2007 and then another in Dec 2008....but I've also jackpotted in a few back on MLK weekend 2014, 2/24/13, and 2/22/07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Ray is going to love this GFS...inverted fraud 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: As soon as Tblizz speaks, expect the opposite. Hey, his analysis works like a charm. Why stop now? Feet incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I am not sure there is a preferred climo time for them. We had a good one in Dec 2007 and then another in Dec 2008....but I've also jackpotted in a few back on MLK weekend 2014, 2/24/13, and 2/22/07. Preferred climo is actually Jan/Feb, which makes sense considering there is a strong surface to 850 temp difference component to the trof generating widespread precip. Colder SSTs work in favor of the trof producing more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No matter how it shakes out, pretty unanimous agreement ...we are all snow covered by this weekend Seems like it may be a tricky forecast for the CT Mets. Western CT looks like it doesn't see much more than an inch or two where Eastern parts see 6-8 if this runs verifys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Tblizz, I am joking...but I swear each time you meh'd something...guidance popped 10" over your head, or a 35dbz echo pops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tblizz, I am joking...but I swear each time you meh'd something...guidance popped 10" over your head, or a 35dbz echo pops. I know lol. No worries. Im just not overly impressed with any guidance at this point as it relates to this weekend. At this juncture... I’ll be happy with any measurable. My guess is most folks end up with an inch or so... maybe some folks see 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 I truly believe that we will have at least one of these shortwaves show up and produce a major snowstorm for New England, which one I don't know yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I am not sure there is a preferred climo time for them. We had a good one in Dec 2007 and then another in Dec 2008....but I've also jackpotted in a few back on MLK weekend 2014, 2/24/13, and 2/22/07. I also recall one in Dec 88 because I was in drivers ed lol. And another one in maybe Dec 92 or 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I know lol. No worries. Im just not overly impressed with any guidance at this point as it relates to this weekend. At this juncture... I’ll be happy with any measurable. My guess is most folks end up with an inch or so... maybe some folks see 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, WintersComing said: Seems like it may be a tricky forecast for the CT Mets. Western CT looks like it doesn't see much more than an inch or two where Eastern parts see 6-8 if this runs verifys. Shouldn't be that difficult seeing the next run may have it over DE Maine as yesterday it was over the Mid Atlantic region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Ukie looked more amped for Saturday...hard to say if it actually gave precip since the maps beyond 72h might as well be from 1985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie looked more amped for Saturday...hard to say if it actually gave precip since the maps beyond 72h might as well be from 1985. Based on the overnight runs, model guidance sensitivity was most significant in the day 3-5 period, so it may be another 48 hours before guidance starts honing in. There at least was a consistent signal for a higher ridge out west, sharper downstream side of the ridge (i.e. lower heights there), and a deeper s/wv moving through the eastern trof. That favored the amplification of low pressure off New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tblizz, I am joking...but I swear each time you meh'd something...guidance popped 10" over your head, or a 35dbz echo pops. there's Tblizz, then there is this--the anti-Tblizz 17 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I truly believe that we will have at least one of these shortwaves show up and produce a major snowstorm for New England, which one I don't know yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.