USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Below is the imagery from this afternoon/evenings 18z GFS run at 500mb, at 110 hours out, this illustrates the two areas of disturbed weather that could spark a more aggressive strengthening trend for our coastal hybrid low pressure center for this Friday/Saturday event. Now scenario one suggests a flatter clipper track that moves from the Great Lakes to the New England coastline, this flatter solution is what models show right now between the interaction of the Pacific Jet and Arctic jet energies. The second scenario is for the more potent setup where strong to intense cyclogenesis can happen, we have a major trough over the OH Valley going towards a neutral tilt and later negative tilt as the pacific jet shortwave stuck over TX heads up the Eastern Seaboard. Scenario two shows that a track towards the Mid Atlantic states and coastline would suggest a colder and snowier solution for all of New England. Need to see where it trends towards later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Beautiful two jet structure on this weekend's coastal storm, if only the mid level dynamics played right, it would be so much more, but I digress, I will take a moderate snowstorm over rain at any time especially mid month of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 18z GFS shows that the speed of the low is going to be fast, given that the upper level jet is screaming at 200mb over 150 knots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: BTW, the 18z GFS shows you the fun (or anguish if riding the line) when PAC energy undercuts ridge. The two-week clown snapshot shows a nice distribution of goods...its a nice look as far as long range snow runs go for spreading the wealth (acknowledging that there isn't a more useless product than a 16-day snow map) and I'm positive these maps incorporate too much coastline climo in to show the goods places like E.MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The two-week clown snapshot shows a nice distribution of goods...its a nice look as far as long range snow runs go for spreading the wealth (acknowledging that there isn't a more useless product than a 16-day snow map) and I'm positive these maps incorporate too much coastline climo in to show the goods places like E.MA. Oh how we pray. But, if anyone is savvy enough...loop H5 and watch those s/w troughs go into CA and sneak under the ridge, like Suslak under Ray's sheets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 I knew what today’s runs showed before looking at them. Refreshed the site and was 6 pages behind. We are creeping our way into the first phase of a deep winter, one we will #remember for a very long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Coolwx.com maps show the 18z GFS produces 7"+ for CHH this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Coolwx.com maps show the 18z GFS produces 7"+ for CHH this week What about the rest of the region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Coolwx.com maps show the 18z GFS produces 7"+ for CHH this week All algorithms. The raw data looks iffy at this point out by the elbow, but obvi it's really not worth worrying that much about yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: All algorithms. The raw data looks iffy at this point out by the elbow, but obvi it's really not worth worrying that much about yet. Yeah for the elbow sure, I am a little inland from the elbow, we are naturally colder away from the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What about the rest of the region? Warning snows for the Cape, while everyone east of CT RIVER is advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 as the clock ticks onward passed December 1, the Meteorological first day of winter ... and we have no snow, ...the front-end loaded winter is FAILING failing failing failing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 Heh, I'm on the fence for that weekend thing. I could see that coming in as a fast moving bomb for being anchored in a planetary wave/phase ... as much as nothing happening at all. So, the compromise is probably right about where it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I admit I should have gotten that one. Though I think it was a snow advisory. So forecast was prob 3-5. But still a huge bust. 2/4/16 Box map at night had me with 3 to 4 with the coast a trace to 2 ended up with 8 to 12 next day coast to inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: as the clock ticks onward passed December 1, the Meteorological first day of winter ... and we have no snow, ...the front-end loaded winter is FAILING failing failing failing The record snow for 12/1 at BOS is-1 inch. For 12/2-6 inches, 12/3 (today)-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 John, I could see a fast moving bomb scenario unfold, we want a faster interaction between the arctic clipper and the coastal low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 33 minutes ago, dendrite said: There was one in late Feb 2011 too where the H85 0C stalled W-E across S NH and I lost power up here with a foot of paste. Lots of biggies that year. 2/25/11. That was a good one up there. We had a lot of ice in ORH but we got a nice flip back to snow at the end which covered the ice with 2" of snow...stuck right to the ice because it like that 30-31f ice...so it looked amazing on the landscape...esp since it all fell on like a 25" pack. Anyways...not to stray too OT. One thing ill note which scooters post reminded me of...when you look at any of these model runs whether it is the euro or GFS or ggem, there's a ton of shortwaves diving down the steep PNA ridge. Some of them get rounded a lot at the base but in reality you'd prob see those sharper...there's a lot of potential for juiced clippers and some Miller Bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: 2/4/16 Box map at night had me with 3 to 4 with the coast a trace to 2 ended up with 8 to 12 next day coast to inland That was a special blizzard That band was insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: The record snow for 12/1 at BOS is-1 inch. For 12/2-6 inches, 12/3 (today)-4 inches. Yeah...that prolly makes sense ...out in the middle of the Harbor where the airliners play - i'm only kidding dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah...that prolly makes sense ...out in the middle of the Harbor where the airliners play - i'm only kidding dude I know....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just that the depiction on that would have snow back past west of ALB. If you are strictly looking at qpf then sure it was river east. I just wasn’t sure how familiar he was with New England snowstorm Climo and model bias I'm aware of ALB receiving little snow, but it's mostly coastal event in this scenario if you're looking for local maxima. I don't need to know the climatology beside understanding that it's still early in the season for big events. I'm also familiar with how models behave along the East Coast and how the cyclogenesis process work. I'll be fine haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: I can’t believe I’m the only one that named 2/7/03. 1-3 forecast at nowcast. Nearly a foot verification. I assumed you meant 1903 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I assumed you meant 1903 Maybe he meant 2/17/1903? 14.2” at BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 57 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The two-week clown snapshot shows a nice distribution of goods...its a nice look as far as long range snow runs go for spreading the wealth (acknowledging that there isn't a more useless product than a 16-day snow map) and I'm positive these maps incorporate too much coastline climo in to show the goods places like E.MA. Nickels, Dimes, and a few gold coins up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: Maybe he meant 2/17/1903? 14.2” at BOS. He was in the stands at the old Huntington Avenue grounds watching Cy Young warm up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Man 2003, seems like a long time ago, I can't imagine what 1903 feels like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: You backwash more than Kevin into a bottle of Zima. Perhaps if I had articulated it over a 20 page outlook as opposed to 12 it would be clearer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Oh how we pray. But, if anyone is savvy enough...loop H5 and watch those s/w troughs go into CA and sneak under the ridge, like Suslak under Ray's sheets. Folllowwwwww meeeeee Pffttttt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 18z GFS shows that the speed of the low is going to be fast, given that the upper level jet is screaming at 200mb over 150 knots Speed of movement is obviously an important factor with regard to forecasting snowfall amounts, but we can still accumulate an awful lot of snowfall in just 12 hours if everything came together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 I think 2/15/15 was a pretty good positive bust. 4-1-97 is my number 1, but 12-14-92 is up there for me, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.