USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Oh, ok here is a positive bust story, remember the DEC of 2010, the month before I was off to Basic Training, well we got 13", while the NWS was only forecasting 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Dec 31,2016 gave me 3” of perfect snow when a trace to maybe 0.5” was forecast. Feb 27,2010 was also a good positive for me. 12” from a 4” forecast I think That was the year everything hit the mid Atlantic... mega blocking...Snowmageddon. It’s amazing you got anything that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 There was a big positive bust in central CT a few years ago; I think it was around Easter? Was expecting some minor rain showers with a little icing in Litchfield hills and next thing you know a heavy slug of snow set up over I91 and traffic became a snarled nightmare. Think we picked up a good 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 18z GFS is closer to the coast with the coastal than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Some more consistency from the GFS regarding next Saturday. Light to moderate snow event along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Jan 18-19, 2009 was a good one. The morning of the 18th had a pretty well forecast event. It ended around early afternoon. Then that night another wave formed along the boundary that was still lurking just offshore and a round of heavy snow hit E MA and E CT/RI with little warning. Forecast was for snow showers with maybe an inch or so and instead a quick 4-6" hit in about 4-5 hours. Nice positive bust on very short notice. It seems like a lot of the real short term true busts end up in that range of 3-6"/4-8" or so. Like it's hard to completely miss a foot of snow, even in squall or meso-scale country... but it's easier for a T-1" (that no one pays attention to) to turn into a bigger impact. And impact seems to grow exponentially in that 3-8" range. Like 1-2" on the roads, not ideal but manageable. Once you've got 4-5" of surprise snow it seems like the **** hits the fan in terms of transportation. I think that's why we remember those ones too...there's an impact level where it goes from surprise novelty snow to like "real deal". Like oh this 1.7" is a nice surprise vs holy crap 5.4" what the heck happened?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 The Jan 2009 event that Will refers to was great. That was when the RUC kept coming closer and closer to the coast...and you can see on WV that baroclinic leaf forming and curling NW. Pretty awesome nowcast event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Yeah 18z GFS keeps the theme going of a threat next weekend. Really all we can say right now until another 2-3 model cycles pass. We gotta get inside the 108-120 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 39 minutes ago, Hoth said: Big positive bust in March '13 if one were following the likes of Bouchard. Seemed folks on here had it well pegged though. Oh' man, that one had a brutal qpf cutoff for us WNE folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 20 minutes ago, WxBlue said: Some more consistency from the GFS regarding next Saturday. Light to moderate snow event along the coast. If you consider the coast all the way back to ALB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The Jan 2009 event that Will refers to was great. That was when the RUC kept coming closer and closer to the coast...and you can see on WV that baroclinic leaf forming and curling NW. Pretty awesome nowcast event. Was Cweat/Messinger all over that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If you consider the coast all the way back to ALB lol you are such a stickler for descriptions of where it's going to snow and hate it so much when someone says coast but maybe it snows to BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Was Cweat/Messinger all over that? He was banging the RUC every run......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: lol you are such a stickler for descriptions of where it's going to snow and hate it so much when someone says coast but maybe it snows to BDL. Yeah seriously. Alb gets like an inch of snow from that. The advisory snows on that system on this run are mainly in eastern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 ALB was in the H5 blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 I can’t believe I’m the only one that named 2/7/03. 1-3 forecast at nowcast. Nearly a foot verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: lol you are such a stickler for descriptions of where it's going to snow and hate it so much when someone says coast but maybe it snows to BDL. Just that the depiction on that would have snow back past west of ALB. If you are strictly looking at qpf then sure it was river east. I just wasn’t sure how familiar he was with New England snowstorm Climo and model bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 No positive bust beats 12/23/97 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I can’t believe I’m the only one that named 2/7/03. 1-3 forecast at nowcast. Nearly a foot verification. Yeah I admit I should have gotten that one. Though I think it was a snow advisory. So forecast was prob 3-5. But still a huge bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah seriously. Alb gets like an inch of snow from that. The advisory snows on that system on this run are mainly in eastern New England. That’s a nice system to get on the board though... looks like 3-5” for the Eastern third of SNE. Hopefully we can hold that time period for a few more days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: I can’t believe I’m the only one that named 2/7/03. 1-3 forecast at nowcast. Nearly a foot verification. That's one of my top ever busts. We mention that a lot. Another one a month later...not quite the extent of the 16" this area has in 2/7/03...but a solid 10-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 U want busts u guys should live here lol. April 20th 2016 8 inches turned into 20 inches. Jan 2017 1" turned into 10". There's some other lesser ones and some big busts in 24 hour our range. Last year we had a low which the euro and reg had bombing with 15" of comma head snow the next morning. Gfs and nam had nearly nothing like 1". I believe 4 to 5 inches verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Well 4/1/97 will top it for me. Even if 6-12 forecasted 24 hrs out...24-36" in the same area deserves a cap tip. Esp that time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 BTW, the 18z GFS shows you the fun (or anguish if riding the line) when PAC energy undercuts ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Well 4/1/97 will top it for me. Even if 6-12 forecasted 24 hrs out...24-36" in the same area deserves a cap tip. Esp that time of year. Definitely seen some big Les busts too. But that's night a fair comparison i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 I weenied out over a Feb 2014 storm too. We got CCB’d with 4”/hr for a couple of hours. We’ve had quite a few storms that were forecasted to be minor deals that ended up 10-14”. I just don’t card catalog them in my head like Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: I weenied out over a Feb 2014 storm too. We got CCB’d with 4”/hr for a couple of hours. We’ve had quite a few storms that were forecasted to be minor deals that ended up 10-14”. I just don’t card catalog them in my head like Will. That was a good one for you guys. I was jelly while down the drain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 18z GFS brings 5-7" of snow to CHH with the Friday/Saturday morning storm. It looks like a small or moderate storm, but if things went right could turn out to be much more, I mean that shortwave energy in the Pacific Jet, going under the ridge out west could spark a low over Brownsville, TX that could go through the GOM and up to Cape Hatteras, NC and then strengthen as it reaches the benchmark tapping into the arctic jet clipper and energy transfers to the coastal low, if this happens more so than modeled it will become a colder and snowier solution in future runs. That central Great Lakes trough goes negative and boom goes the dynamite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That was a good one for you guys. I was jelly while down the drain here. There was one in late Feb 2011 too where the H85 0C stalled W-E across S NH and I lost power up here with a foot of paste. Lots of biggies that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 38 minutes ago, powderfreak said: lol you are such a stickler for descriptions of where it's going to snow and hate it so much when someone says coast but maybe it snows to BDL. He's the first one to steer far away from the coastal plain when that march rain snow line is depicted soak the coastal plain and parts nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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