CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Steve you seem to be assuming when some say it's not a big dog look, it means it can"t happen. I didn't see anybody saying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Its not impossible, I just don't think its highly likely out of the gate, I consider 6-10" as moderate, 12"+ i would consider significant. Yeah I'll def favor something more moderate over a big dog. The flow def is very meridional so there's a chance we get a nuke, but it's gotta be almost perfect. Too easy for it to scoot east quickly because we have multiple shortwaves in a progressive flow. They'll act as kickers. But ill def be rooting for everything to come together. There's plenty of potential for snow events with the ability for the northern stream shortwaves to get amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Steve you seem to be assuming when some say it's not a big dog look, it means it can"t happen. I didn't see anybody saying that. Scott, when people post others are wrong to think it can that kind of implies that, perhaps a review of some past posts might clarify what I saw. Odds are extremely low every year for 12 plus , odds increase in patterns like this, all I am saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'll def favor something more moderate over a big dog. The flow def is very meridional so there's a chance we get a nuke, but it's gotta be almost perfect. Too easy for it to scoot east quickly because we have multiple shortwaves in a progressive flow. They'll act as kickers. But ill def be rooting for everything to come together. There's plenty of potential for snow events with the ability for the northern stream shortwaves to get amplified. And there could be a few mod events as well with all these pieces moving thru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'll def favor something more moderate over a big dog. The flow def is very meridional so there's a chance we get a nuke, but it's gotta be almost perfect. Too easy for it to scoot east quickly because we have multiple shortwaves in a progressive flow. They'll act as kickers. But ill def be rooting for everything to come together. There's plenty of potential for snow events with the ability for the northern stream shortwaves to get amplified. Best Dec pattern since? Just don't tell Sipperell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: And there could be a few mod events as well with all these pieces moving thru. Love that, 2 day leads are the bomb, it's like the region wakes up and says hey the Wxman said partly cloudy Sat and now 3 to 6??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ok your multiple posts about not a big dog pattern, people are wrong to think anything else or moderate is the ceiling is what you feel. I just asked why you felt that way other than it's a progressive pattern. I said people were wrong to think anything else with regard to the 00z gfs. Look at the context of the post in the MODEL THREAD. Classic Steve cherry picking bits of information. Aparrently for folks like you I need to add the caveat the anything is possible in my sig because I don't how many times I have said nothing can be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Love that, 2 day leads are the bomb, it's like the region wakes up and says hey the Wxman said partly cloudy Sat and now 3 to 6??? Yes, Which looks like it it could be the case, I'll take this upcoming look any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Steve you seem to be assuming when some say it's not a big dog look, it means it can"t happen. I didn't see anybody saying that. Whoooossh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yes, Which look to be that it could be the case, I'll take this upcoming look any day. Yep now we wait and see how it all evolves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Whoooossh... You backwash more than Kevin into a bottle of Zima. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 4 hours ago, weathafella said: It’s winter...lol. Of course it is.....silly me....lol Waiting to depart ATL..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Well anyways, it's really tough for me to find any real sign of something trying to break this down. This looks locked for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Love that, 2 day leads are the bomb, it's like the region wakes up and says hey the Wxman said partly cloudy Sat and now 3 to 6??? Those are the best... or just waking up to 3-6" and pounding squalls when the forecast the evening before said partly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Those are the best... or just waking up to 3-6" and pounding squalls when the forecast the evening before said partly cloudy. Ha, you are one of the few on here that gets to experience that with any frequency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Ha, you are one of the few on here that gets to experience that with any frequency. I'd think the coast can get it too with an out-to-sea that does a Messenger special and wraps up more. I think 48 hours lead time is the best. Not long enough that you go crazy waiting for it, but long enough that you can enjoy the anticipation. Let's be honest, many here probably enjoy the run-up just as much as the actual snowfall. We all enjoy seeing weather models show us what we want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Lol....freak dropping some crumbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well anyways, it's really tough for me to find any real sign of something trying to break this down. This looks locked for awhile. This is erotica to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 It's kind of a rub, actually ... You want the curved flow structures for big events; you just don't want them so hugely sloped in the geopontial - It's all look and no substance in this sort of thing. Again ... with another model solution attempting to use an entire planetary wave structure to engineer a storm (Euro.. D10). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 29 minutes ago, weathafella said: Lol....freak dropping some crumbs. haha what's your best forecast bust there on the coast? Like went to bed with a forecast of a coastal storm that's going to miss wide right and wake up to it pounding snow and realizing you're "in it." You've gotta have several. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: haha what's your best forecast bust there on the coast? Like went to bed with a forecast of a coastal storm that's going to miss wide right and wake up to it pounding snow and realizing you're "in it." You've gotta have several. I’m going to throw 12/13/07 in there. Not sure if it was a total positive bust, but people were caught with their knickers down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: haha what's your best forecast bust there on the coast? Like went to bed with a forecast of a coastal storm that's going to miss wide right and wake up to it pounding snow and realizing you're "in it." You've gotta have several. I would say I remember back to the winter of 2000-2001 or 2001-2002 where one of those winters, Cape Cod had a winter storm warning in effect for 12"+ and then ended up with 2" of snow, the good thing about it was, the winter storm warning was in effect in the early morning hours, so they called school that day, but I remember loving weather back then and being fascinated with the reasons why something happens as much as why nothing happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Oh the best forecast bust was probably The Blizzard of 2005, we were forecasted to get 6-10" by all of the news stations on tv and then ended up with 35" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 The only one to get it partially right was the NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I’m going to throw 12/13/07 in there. Not sure if it was a total positive bust, but people were caught with their knickers down No that one was very well forecast. That was locked in for about 3-4 days at least. The reason it was a disaster was because of the timing. It was just overcast until about 11am-noon (a little earlier in CT) and then the sky just opened up heavy snow like baking powder. The forecast was for 6-10/8-12....so it made it hard for schools to cancel without a snowy morning commute. This was despite several warnings of how fast the storm would come in. It wasn't going to be a few hours of light snow before the meat of the event. Once it starts, you're already too late for early dismissal. It was a disaster by the officials who control that stuff. I wish we still had Eastern available for the archives because I remember in that thread we kept hitting hard the idea that it would start very fast like a wall of heavy snow. The powers that be just didn't respond to those forecasts. They probably got suckered by the 11am start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: haha what's your best forecast bust there on the coast? Like went to bed with a forecast of a coastal storm that's going to miss wide right and wake up to it pounding snow and realizing you're "in it." You've gotta have several. Since I moved back from LA in mid 1991, probably 2/7/03. But that was thanks to a wonderful deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Oh the best forecast bust was probably The Blizzard of 2005, we were forecasted to get 6-10" by all of the news stations on tv and then ended up with 35" That wasn’t from a whiff forecast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 18 minutes ago, powderfreak said: haha what's your best forecast bust there on the coast? Like went to bed with a forecast of a coastal storm that's going to miss wide right and wake up to it pounding snow and realizing you're "in it." You've gotta have several. Jan 18-19, 2009 was a good one. The morning of the 18th had a pretty well forecast event. It ended around early afternoon. Then that night another wave formed along the boundary that was still lurking just offshore and a round of heavy snow hit E MA and E CT/RI with little warning. Forecast was for snow showers with maybe an inch or so and instead a quick 4-6" hit in about 4-5 hours. Nice positive bust on very short notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Big positive bust in March '13 if one were following the likes of Bouchard. Seemed folks on here had it well pegged though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Dec 31,2016 gave me 3” of perfect snow when a trace to maybe 0.5” was forecast. Feb 27,2010 was also a good positive for me. 12” from a 4” forecast I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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