dryslot Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Yeah can't ask for much more than a deep trough where its progged. We'll see what happens. Better than if we were looking at the 7-14 day and seeing a +2SD ridge over the east and everyone panicking because you know anything fun is still weeks away (pretty much what skiers out west are doing right now).We have been there before too, But I have also been here over the years and know what the results can be, I like it this way much better. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I would not call this a KU pattern. It's rather progressive. At some point we may see a large system...but I would not call it a KU pattern. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I've been wondering if we see any southern stream cutting under that stout western ridge.... I'm sure La Nina climo would argue against it, but I can't imagine if we could just get some southern stream action entering the base of the trough. Imagine that upper level pattern with an active southern jet. The GFS guidance breaks that ridge down out west and PAC jet action. Not sure I buy it, but it's possible to an extent. That would introduce something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 37 minutes ago, dendrite said: We have too many Scotts so we need a way to separate. So you’re Scoot, Scott in VT is Freak, and Scott in Weirs is Eek. Did I miss a Scott? RIP cweat/messenger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 I'd like to actually see a plowable event modeled inside of clown range. Not there yet....and at least to start, this does not look like a big dog pattern. Not sure what a few are smoking. Could we see one amplify, sure...but I wouldn't hold my breath in that regard right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 35 minutes ago, mreaves said: We still have 1972 though Since I moved up here, I definitely do not flaunt it. At least until Brady retires..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 I almost wonder if the ginormous Siberian snow pack/areal surface coverage (particularly on top of the max backward diurnal tilt) is partial in the helping to raise 500 mb heights over that region of the arctic circle. Those heights that keep bridging that region up there seem to persist in the absence of a terminating planetary wave event(s) ...which leaves DVM over a cold lower troposphere as a plausible in assisting/maintaining 500mb tendencies for at least modest positive anomalies. .. just an idea... ----------------------- So far I haven't seen anything to dissuade my thinking that anything that happens between ~ day 5 and D .. 9 or 10 is probably going to be quick hitting; that is 'probably,' not a certainty. Again, there's way to overcome that... The two main ones I can think of is first, ...maybe similar to what Scott and Will brought up about the trough getting exotic enough to scoop some sort of S to NNE trajectory event ...which can move fast, but be so spatially large in the flow that you make up for it in translation-duration. The other is more a multiple stream phased scenario. That's probably the best way to get a "bomb" out of an otherwise saturated gradient flow where the balance wind is roaring too strongly for individual wave mechanics. We've actually seen both above modeled in GFS runs at one time or the other, over the past four days... But they never seem to last from one run to the next. Although, the last three GFS cycles (reasonably agreed upon by the other model types) seem to have settled on some sort of a fast moving weak Miller B toward Friday...than perhaps another 2.5 or so days later. So not a total loss... We're just being dealt a bit too much of a good thing... I personally think as the flow relaxes post this uber meridional thing we may be left with enough vestige of western heights that an active Pac jet will be diverted S past 110 W in those extended means, and that would probably be running up underneath better confluence tendencies... I don't believe necessary we have to wait until the Solstice for that... but... Maybe past day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 I’m loving the discussion but I just want to say that I’d be thrilled with a couple or more light to moderate snowfalls against a cold backdrop, this month, after the last two cruel Decembers. Just hope this winter bears gifts into Jan/Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 I believe we might have the snowiest Decembers since 2010 on the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 I am with John, I think the best chances for a major event this December is after Day 10, the Friday event looks meh, to maybe a 3-6" event according to the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/upa/gen-ctrmap-a.cgi?re=us&le=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=ln&yy=1960&mm=12&dd=11&hh=12&sc=1.0&ge=640x480&pg=web would you have predicted one of the megopolis great blizzards in the next 12 hours from this look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/upa/gen-ctrmap-a.cgi?re=us&le=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=ln&yy=1960&mm=12&dd=11&hh=12&sc=1.0&ge=640x480&pg=web would you have predicted one of the megopolis great blizzards in the next 12 hours from this look? That's actually a pretty delicious look. Slower flow than our progged pattern. I prob wouldn't have predicted it to come as far north as it did but overall that's pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That's actually a pretty delicious look. Slower flow than our progged pattern. I prob wouldn't have predicted it to come as far north as it did but overall that's pretty good. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/December_1960_nor'easter Nice storm!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's actually a pretty delicious look. Slower flow than our progged pattern. I prob wouldn't have predicted it to come as far north as it did but overall that's pretty good. That’s the thing-kind of surprising NYC north did so well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/December_1960_nor'easter Nice storm!! Had about 10" up here with lots of drifting and frigid temps following the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Surprised 21” was the max snowfall, no slant sticking in 1960. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Surprised 21” was the max snowfall, no slant sticking in 1960. Given the clearing every 6 hours I bet EWR today would measure 2 feet+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Looks pretty damn close on 0z for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Looks pretty damn close on 0z for next weekend. Pretty looking h5 GFS should have transferred further south but didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Models starting to hit the Dec 8-10 th period hard as our first regional event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Models starting to hit the Dec 8-10 th period hard as our first regional event. "Hard"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: "Hard"? Lock it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: Lock it.. I haven't looked at anything since the release of my outlook. I'll dust off the WeatherBell subscription tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I haven't looked at anything since the release of my outlook. I'll dust off the WeatherBell subscription tonight. It's time Ray, Good times ahead after the mid week system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: It's time Ray, Good times ahead after the mid week system. Coming from you, I take it seriously.....but there have been some three-bunners in here of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Coming from you, I take it seriously.....but there have been some three-bunners in here of late.Weenies have run wild in here the last couple weeks, Ince we lock a threat, That will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: Weenies have run wild in here the last couple weeks, Ince we lock a threat, That will change. Looks like a mixed bag of a$$ to me.. Deep interior favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Euro is better....split the difference and it would get most on the board, but I think moderate is the ceiling here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro is better....split the difference and it would get most on the board, but I think moderate is the ceiling here. I don’t think anyone would suggest otherwise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I don’t think anyone would suggest otherwise? Hope not. They would be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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