USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 The 18z GFS is fun to watch, but how realistic is it? A triple phase superbomb the GFS is producing, could be a true sign that the potential is really great in the next two to four weeks. If the EURO is showing a bomb in the day 9-10 range, and the GFS has a superbomb out 14 days, I think it is the models way of thinking that we can at least have the potential of a super phased bomb this month. Plus the 18z GFS produces a 150 knot mid level jet streak over the ocean south of New England, that is explosive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The 18z GFS is fun to watch, but how realistic is it? A triple phase superbomb the GFS is producing, could be a true sign that the potential is really great in the next two to four weeks. If the EURO is showing a bomb in the day 9-10 range, and the GFS has a superbomb out 14 days, I think it is the models way of thinking that we can at least have the potential of a super phased bomb this month. Plus the 18z GFS produces a 150 knot mid level jet streak over the ocean south of New England, that is explosive James don’t read into it too much...it’s fantasy fodder for sure. doesnt mean there isn’t potential, but that’s weather sci-fi BS at its best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: James don’t read into it too much...it’s fantasy fodder for sure. doesnt mean there isn’t potential, but that’s weather sci-fi BS at its best. I think it is just outlying the potential we all see in the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: mmm, it still matters. Miller A's will suffer in a high velocity pattern... too. although, we could benefit from PWAT flux ... I think 1978 ...or may very late 1977 ...there's an example of a modestly intense Miller A that was exceptionally prolific in the buckets. But, speaking to this run ..those aren't deep south lows. They look like Miller B's with even worse pressure pattern signatures in the deep S. More over, they look remarkable weak comparative to what is going on in the mid levels - it's all suspect. To public perception, heh obviously it doesn't matter. Miller A/hybrid...whatever. I just mean these lows forming near the GOM to AR and move NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Miller A/hybrid...whatever. I just mean these lows forming near the GOM to AR and move NE. The best kinds for more west regions. Miller Bs worry me how late they can develop. Get a hybrid in there and tuck it under LI like feb 13 and me so horny. Although I think that was a pure miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The best kinds for more west regions. Miller Bs worry me how late they can develop. Get a hybrid in there and tuck it under LI like feb 13 and me so horny. Me love you long time...with the hybrid storms that is. Feb 13 was a beaut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: You can have instances where two areas are hit with bombs in two weeks or less. See Albany area in 2003 and SE MA in 2015. Those occur more frequently compared to 100" in 4 weeks. Plus 1. If Central MD can pull off 60 plus inches from 2 storms in one week (in Feb 2010), so can climatological fovored places further north like here. It took 50 days to hit 90” in a anamolous pattern (with two near misses mixed in) so 100” in 28 days would take near perfection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Since the GFS shows two bombs in succession, I think one will at least be a mega bomb. Also the EURO shows a closed 500mb low south of Marthas Vineyard., MA at day 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Me love you long time...with the hybrid storms that is. Feb 13 was a beaut. Fi dolla sukee sukee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The best kinds for more west regions. Miller Bs worry me how late they can develop. Get a hybrid in there and tuck it under LI like feb 13 and me so horny. Although I think that was a pure miller B. My preference is over ACK to avoid some occluded..........POS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 THE 12z EURO would be perfect for SNE snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: My preference is over ACK to avoid some occluded..........POS You don'[t need it over ACK, it can be east, just as long as it heads NWward lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 All set with Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: All set with Miller A. Not a preference of mine, I'd settle for B's, Clippers and over runners all day though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: You don'[t need it over ACK, it can be east, just as long as it heads NWward lol When we wish for storms over the canal we are simply just trying to get you your high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 12 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Since the GFS shows two bombs in succession, I think one will at least be a mega bomb. Also the EURO shows a closed 500mb low south of Marthas Vineyard., MA at day 9 i'm shocked that you think we will have a mega bomb. truly shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Not a preference of mine, I'll settle for B's, Clippers and over runners all day though. Miller Lites? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Miller Lites? Funny you mentioned that, That's my standby beverage except its Sammy's tonight.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 just a run-of-the-mill 946 low. Ho hum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Don't get caught up in the Miller A/B stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 31 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: just a run-of-the-mill 946 low. Ho hum. Sell that. Looks like gfs nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 I like how the hgts at the core of that thing are the lowest in the whole hemisphere. Day After Tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 2 hours ago, weathafella said: Thanks Tom! It took a second but I figured it out-and no alcohol as of yet today...lol. Deliberate obtuseness is a skill I've refined for many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 gfs overdeepens hurricanes by like 40mb, I think i’ll add a couple mb ticks here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 1 hour ago, SJonesWX said: i'm shocked that you think we will have a mega bomb. truly shocked Mega monsters over our heads as we awake at dawn with wet beds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Mega monsters over our heads as we awake at dawn with wet beds. Ahaha lmao... ahh James...he’s always looking for the Mega bomb.... “Death from above..The Mega Bomb from Hell.” Cape Cod sinks from Mega snow accumulations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Don't get caught up in the Miller A/B stuff. In WNE, I would rather take my chances with a gom, moisture fed, Miller A hugging the coast than I would a late bloomer Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 45 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Mega monsters over our heads as we awake at dawn with wet beds. In the upcoming pattern you and I could certainly make out well (my lat may help early season) but I would also prepare for coastal peeps to score the early season coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 There will be chances for all types of systems the next 2 weeks. The only thing that looks unlikely is a slow mover due to fast flow. We have northern stream dominance and a very tight gradient with no megablocks to try and offset so most systems will move right along. The trough digs deep enough at times that we could def see a gulf system but we will have plenty of chances for clippers and redevelopers and Miller Bs with the northern stream being dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 16 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: In WNE, I would rather take my chances with a gom, moisture fed, Miller A hugging the coast than I would a late bloomer Miller B. All dayy any day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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