weathafella Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Happy 39th, old man winter!! Jack Benny and me! Thanks Ray-fun should start soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 36 minutes ago, Hoth said: I believe they calculated the probability of another 90+" 30 day period at 0.000037%. People shouldn't expect that unless they plan on living another few dozen millennia. I'm not sure I agree with this. The climate is changing and global warming may not manifest itself entirely as the general populous believes that it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Yea. Either the recent KU stretch is purely anomolous and we revert back to nickel and dimes for the next 10 winters....or this is the new norm. I think the latter. Extremes and the all or nothing scenarios are more ‘common’. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Warmer air holds more moisture....I understand Feb 2015 was low liquid equivalent, but the fact remains. Additiinally, poles are warming the fastest, so who knows what impact that may have on the frequency of high latitude blocking moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not sure I agree with this. The climate is changing and global warming may not manifest itself entirely as the general populous believes that it will. Yeah the study had a few caveats regarding climate change and its assumptions. I believe it was based more on Boston's historical snow data. Still a solid 6+ sigma event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. Either the recent KU stretch is purely anomolous and we revert back to nickel and dimes for the next 10 winters....or this is the new norm. I think the latter. Extremes and the all or nothing scenarios are more ‘common’. Oh how I pray. I'm not sure I could handle 10 years of reversion to the mean at this point. The melts would be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Yeah the study had a few caveats regarding climate change and its assumptions. I believe it was based more on Boston's historical snow data. Still a solid 6+ sigma event. Oh its highly anomalous...don't get me wrong. But I don't think it will take another 1000 years to repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Oh its highly anomalous...don't get me wrong. But I don't think it will take another 1000 years to repeat. Ginxy's famed 1717 scrolls would imply as much. I even managed about 60" in the month from Boxing Day '10 to Jan 27, 2011. Not the same league as '15, but still impressive. It will happen again, just not expecting a repeat in my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Oh its highly anomalous...don't get me wrong. But I don't think it will take another 1000 years to repeat. Yea, Didn’t mean to say Feb 2105 for ema will be the new norm, one could dream and never awake at dawn....it could happen for another part of the region in 50 years, maybe less, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Thank you tamarack! I should know your first name as I’m among the few here that would not need to say mr...lol. You stated the 60-61 argument perfectly! Change the 1st vowel of my nom de plume to "o" and then delete the final 5 letters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea, Didn’t mean to say Feb 2105 for ema will be the new norm, one could dream and never awake at dawn....it could happen for another part of the region in 50 years, maybe less, though. You can have instances where two areas are hit with bombs in two weeks or less. See Albany area in 2003 and SE MA in 2015. Those occur more frequently compared to 100" in 4 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 That is a dawn awakening s/w on the 18z GFS at hr 162. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 The vort coming out of Canada has a more N-S orientation due to the more meridional orientation of the western ridge. The energy is also more consolidated into one vortmax instead of a broad trough. Should have room to dig; this might be an interesting run. Definitely looks like a potent shortwave coming out of Canada either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 H5 looks great on the Euro and gfs next weekend. Going to be interesting to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Next weekend way too far out. Focus on the Wed night snow. Nice 1-3” event at least to kick things off. Lay down some pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Next weekend way too far out. Focus on the Wed night snow. Nice 1-3” event at least to kick things off. Lay down some pack The wed event could be gone next run too...that’s a real low confidence idea there...need to see that keep appearing on subsequent runs to even start to focus on that idea imo. But it was nice to see it come back on the Euro, let’s see what 0z shows and if it’s still there...If it is that would help increase odds a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 This is fun stuff Wed nite seems whiffy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Happy birthday to The Fella! i wish it would snow on his birthday and Blizz’s birthday every year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Everyone saw the 940mb low into Downeast ME right? It was 967mbs over the Cape, rain for me, but the interior got their JUNO that run. I know fantasy, but shows the potential this pattern can produce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Everyone saw the 940mb low into Downeast ME right? It was 967mbs over the Cape, rain for me, but the interior got their JUNO that run. I know fantasy, but shows the potential this pattern can produce I’d rather Nemo than Juno lol. But I’d take either for a season kickoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Just now, WinterWolf said: I’d rather Nemo than Juno lol. But I’d take either for a season kickoff. I want a stronger version of JUNO, NEMO was too far southwest for me to stay all snow, I would like a combo of the two, have NEMO' strength and have JUNO's track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I want a stronger version of JUNO, NEMO was too far southwest for me to stay all snow, I would like a combo of the two, have NEMO' strength and have JUNO's track Nemo was Feb 13, you mixed/rained in Nemo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Nemo was Feb 13, you mixed/rained in Nemo? Yes, we got front end about 6" of snow, then 17" from the backend, we had a grand total of 17" on the ground afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Yes, we got front end about 6" of snow, then 17" from the backend, we had a grand total of 17" on the ground afterwards. Wow..interesting James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 15 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Everyone saw the 940mb low into Downeast ME right? It was 967mbs over the Cape, rain for me, but the interior got their JUNO that run. I know fantasy, but shows the potential this pattern can produce Seems reasonable...as compared to the 930 bomb it teed up at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 hour ago, tamarack said: Change the 1st vowel of my nom de plume to "o" and then delete the final 5 letters. Thanks Tom! It took a second but I figured it out-and no alcohol as of yet today...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 I find it fascinating what this run is attempting... In such a gradient saturate/high velocity mid level wind flux pattern, about the only way to get a big event is to actually triple phase the streams. I've counted essentially two, 2.5 stream phasers, culminating in a third that is 3 proper. Inside of one run! The first two only have paltry surface reflections for what is going on at mid levels - which is the fascinating part. It's like GFS if got "too much" potential ...you wonder if just outpaces the lower troposphere's ability to respond? That's an amazing notion... but that's what that looks like, ... finally, the third impulse, being completely hemispherically anchored, slows down enough to cyclogenesis. I've been arguing along here that with this type of ginormous anomaly smaller, quick hitting system are favored; that is still true? But it's interestingly the rare three-stream phased system is attempted three times in the same run. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I find it fascinating what this run is attempting... In such a gradient saturate/high velocity mid level wind flux pattern, about the only way to get a big event is to actually triple phase the streams. I've counted essentially two, 2.5 stream phasers, culminating in a third that is 3 proper. The first two only have paltry surface reflections for what is going on at mid levels - which is the fascinating part. It's like GFS if got "too much" potential ...you wonder if just outpaces the lower troposphere's ability to respond? That's an amazing notion... but that's what that looks like, ... finally, the third impulse, being completely hemispherically anchored, slows down enough to cyclogenesis. I've been arguing along here that with this type of ginormous anomaly smaller, quick hitting system are favored; that is still true? But it's interestingly the rare three-stream phased system is attempted three times in the same run. wow Deep South lows. We definitely have a shot of a big one somewhere when the trough is that sharp. I don't really care about double or triple phasers...just stating we are in the run for those Miller A type deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Deep South lows. We definitely have a shot of a big one somewhere when the trough is that sharp. I don't really care about double or triple phasers...just stating we are in the run for those Miller A type deals. mmm, it still matters. Miller A's will suffer in a high velocity pattern... too. although, we could benefit from PWAT flux ... I think 1978 ...or may very late 1977 ...there's an example of a modestly intense Miller A that was exceptionally prolific in the buckets. But, speaking to this run ..those aren't deep south lows. They look like Miller B's with even worse pressure pattern signatures in the deep S. More over, they look remarkable weak comparative to what is going on in the mid levels - it's all suspect. To public perception, heh obviously it doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Weenie fodder on the 18z GFS out past truncation, Lot of potential though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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