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Late autumn, early winter model mayhem

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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leo2000

leo2000

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I didn't see anybody not on board but I guarantee you will be the first to jump off if there is even a hint of change

Snow Goose a met on here on the New York isn't 100 percent on board with this. As he is concerned with some of the members continuing to suggest the Pacific Jet may end up ruining the cold and stormy pattern. 

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not to be a little biatch but there's nothing guaranteed in that pattern, suppression depression can happen. EPS precip maps kind of indicate that. Need a nice vortmax.

Of course... it's a good looking pattern. 

Some deliver and some don't but we're certainly loading the dice for better than climo snow chances.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Of course... it's a good looking pattern. 

Some deliver and some don't but we're certainly loading the dice for better than climo snow chances.

Someone should cash in, it just may not be our backyard.

ACY could get whacked while SNE looks at dim sun, but I wouldn't call that a bust as far as long range pattern prognostication goes.

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted

Wake me up when something is within 24 hours. The best patterns can produce nothing and the worst patterns produce a huge event.

Weve done quite a bit with very little in recent years. Some big storms in less than ideal background state. We’re due to throw up a dud in a good pattern.

With that said... hope we can get something with a good look

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted

Investing into a very favorable pattern is completely different than saying it’s a lock to produce snow up to the cornhole. Some people think it’s the one and the same, here lies the problem. I will invest in this pattern all day all night, take my chances with it over any 3-4 day snow threat on the gfs in a crappy pattern where everything has to break right. Luck on those eventually runs out. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Investing into a very favorable pattern is completely different than saying it’s a lock to produce snow up to the cornhole. Some people think it’s the one and the same, here lies the problem. I will invest in this pattern all day all night, take my chances with it over any 3-4 day snow threat on the gfs in a crappy pattern where everything has to break right. Luck on those eventually runs out. 

I don’t know about you...but when somebody is saying “snowy and lots of it”  there is your one in the same idea.  

 

Everybody here knows that EPS Look is a great pattern if it plays out like that...and most everyone here would roll the dice with that look for sure.  And you’re right, it’s not a lock to deliver snow up to the cornhole as you say.  A few expressed the logical Ideas of TBD, potential suppression ideas, some great patterns don’t produce etc etc..

And they were branded(in a Twist of the Facts /Truth as is usual) to not be on board. Nothing could have been more inaccurate. There in lies the REAL problem....Twisting of the facts by the same poster time and time again.   It detracts from the quality of the forum. 

 

 

 

 

 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Someone should cash in, it just may not be our backyard.

ACY could get whacked while SNE looks at dim sun, but I wouldn't call that a bust as far as long range pattern prognostication goes.

Those days are coming for me... so enjoying nights like this evening ;).  Radar obviously blocked by the spine of mountains, its snowing but terrain is blocking or diminishing the signal.  Steady light snow at home and 1" or more per hour at times at the mountain judging by this signature.  My 3-6" at the hill is looking good.  I'd think 3" in the upper elevations is a lock.  Looking outside and its all white, we take these bursts this time of year.

vGN816W.gif

 

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Wake me up when something is within 24 hours. The best patterns can produce nothing and the worst patterns produce a huge event.

Weve done quite a bit with very little in recent years. Some big storms in less than ideal background state. We’re due to throw up a dud in a good pattern.

With that said... hope we can get something with a good look

Seriously why bother following anything?    Turn on the radio the day before a storm is forecasted.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Those days are coming for me... so enjoying nights like this evening ;).  Radar obviously blocked by the spine of mountains, its snowing but terrain is blocking or diminishing the signal.  Steady light snow at home and 1" or more per hour at times at the mountain judging by this signature.  My 3-6" at the hill is looking good.  I'd think 3" in the upper elevations is a lock.  Looking outside and its all white, we take these bursts this time of year.

vGN816W.gif

 

I said a foot on Mansfield this weekend, looks like it , 6 this AM 6 tonight

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
Just now, weathafella said:

Seriously why bother following anything?    Turn on the radio the day before a storm is forecasted.

Pretty sure some have been following and pissing and moaning about the long range for weeks and now that it finally looks awesome at the perfect time they become debbie downers. No one other than Kevin is guaranteeing a snowy stretch...but it’s like being dealt a full house and being afraid to bet on it because your opponent may have 4 of a kind.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Pretty sure some have been following and pissing and moaning about the long range for weeks and now that it finally looks awesome at the perfect time they become debbie downers. No one other than Kevin is guaranteeing a snowy stretch...but it’s like being dealt a full house and being afraid to bet on it because your opponent may have 4 of a kind.

At least Kevin gets on board with a good pattern when the models tell him to.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, dendrite said:

Pretty sure some have been following and pissing and moaning about the long range for weeks and now that it finally looks awesome at the perfect time they become debbie downers. No one other than Kevin is guaranteeing a snowy stretch...but it’s like being dealt a full house and being afraid to bet on it because your opponent may have 4 of a kind.

Yeah. I don't really think it needs to be said all the time that a good pattern can strike out once in a while. It happens. Anyone on here more than a month should know that by now. But we follow this stuff to see when we're most favorable for snow events...this pattern upcoming is basically what you said...being dealt a full house. We have multiple ways to score in that setup. 

Now we will wait and see what individual threats pop up for mid month. 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah. I don't really think it needs to be said all the time that a good pattern can strike out once in a while. It happens. Anyone on here more than a month should know that by now. But we follow this stuff to see when we're most favorable for snow events...this pattern upcoming is basically what you said...being dealt a full house. We have multiple ways to score in that setup. 

Now we will wait and see what individual threats pop up for mid month. 

I think most of us look at the LR and the SR as two different things. As snow fans, we basically have different goals for each. In the SR, we’re looking for snow events. In the LR, we’re just looking for patterns most conducive to snow events. It’s like we just scored the 2007 Pats roster. I’d take those odds every day of the week. Maybe we’ll get Tyree’d, but we’d probably win a best of 7.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think most of us look at the LR and the SR as two different things. As snow fans, we basically have different goals for each. In the SR, we’re looking for snow events. In the LR, we’re just looking for patterns most conducive to snow events. It’s like we just scored the 2007 Pats roster. I’d take those odds every day of the week. Maybe we’ll get Tyree’d, but we’d probably win a best of 7.

Probably win in 5. :(

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Weatherexpert

Weatherexpert

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s a fabulous looking 500mb pattern...but it doesn’t mean it’s snowy necessarily(one would think that it would produce some real nice chances)...but to say it’s gonna be snowy at this lead is way premature imo.  

 

But we take FOR SURE...great looking set up as Ryan eluded too. 

It is getting snowy and this whole past week outside my home we got some snow. Vermont is looking heavy and it is looking like a deep COLD winter 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems like after 60 Wednesday at BDL and BOS..there's one more mild up next week ahead of the arctic front, and then, just maybe, that's it. Op runs have front coming thru middle of next week

Yeah that's gaining traction. Some torchy times ahead of front.  Still thinking post 12/10. 

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