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Late autumn, early winter model mayhem

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You know CPC analogs are all Pacific based.I have more and more used EPS and CIPS which encompass the whole globe. 85 was great for a week 

Yeah, I mean they go to 60W, but either way.  I look at the pattern modeled and it does look a lot like those monthly anomalies.  The days that are showing up on the 6-10/8-14 analogs are mostly toward mid to end of the end of the month anyway, which was the better part as you said. 

 

 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Yeah, I mean they go to 60W, but either way.  I look at the pattern modeled and it does look a lot like those monthly anomalies.  The days that are showing up on the 6-10/8-14 analogs are mostly toward mid to end of the end of the month anyway, which was the better part as you said. 

 

 

I just like the trough orientation better. Believe me 85 and 89 are in my mind but the way EPS has increased precip, backed the trough west and opened up Gulf flow has me thinking this could get very interesting especially when the Polar Low backs west. That's a 4 wave pattern a la 93/94 12/13 14/15

eps_z500a_nh_216.png

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I just like the trough orientation better. Believe me 85 and 89 are in my mind but the way EPS has increased precip, backed the trough west and opened up Gulf flow has me thinking this could get very interesting especially when the Polar Low backs west. That's a 4 wave pattern a la 93/94 12/13 14/15

eps_z500a_nh_216.png

Yeah i've noticed some of a more central-WAR ridge showing up the models in the day 8-12 range which annoys me of course, but opens up the door to more precip for the east etc.  But the lack of NAO there could be to the coast's detriment, we'll see. The pattern gets better for me after (theoretically) as the trough shallows and the height anomalies branch eastward into the Atlantic. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Yeah i've noticed some of a more central-WAR ridge showing up the models in the day 8-12 range which annoys me of course, but opens up the door to more precip for the east etc.  But the lack of NAO there could be to the coast's detriment, we'll see. The pattern gets better for me after (theoretically) as the trough shallows and the height anomalies branch eastward into the Atlantic. 

Weeklies are sick, hope it holds, if some miss, we will have lots of opportunities.  Just got to go my gut/ past patterns and say. Let's do this. Rev up the bus Rev Epicosity is making a comeback :weenie:'s

 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Anafront snow still there on overnight runs. This time next week the ground is white north and east of NYC

This is when some wonder if you looked at them, haha.  Certainly not on the EURO or GGEM... she gone long before cold air arrives.

GFS though keeps with it though from central NY up through this area and NNH/WME.

 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This is when some wonder if you looked at them, haha.  Certainly not on the EURO or GGEM... she gone long before cold air arrives.

GFS though keeps with it though from central NY up through this area and NNH/WME.

 

Many of the gefs and some EPS members. Op runs wouldn't resolve this yet

  

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ Highlights...

 - Seasonable and quiet Saturday night through Monday night
 - Sweeping cold front Tuesday through Wednesday
 - In advance, rain with embedded heavier showers, mild
 - Rearward, rain changing to snow, possible light accumulations
 - Slightly unseasonable, colder air around Friday into the weekend
 - Simultaneously, watching for potential storm development

*/ Overview...

 

 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Fun times ahead, been sleeping very well lately. 

Ditto. I haven't posted much in here, but there isn't much to add beyond what's already posted. The upcoming pattern looks great with deets TBD. It's basically a waiting period until we get the pattern change into the shorter range and then we can start focusing on actual s/w's and threats. d10 op bombs don't interest me. d5-7 and we can start talking.

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm excited...but kind of evolved to the point of "wake me when we have a viable threat inside of day 5"...

I think we wait until at least the holidays for a big dog.

Yeah I’ve kind of reached that point too. Only so much you can say about the pattern at this point. It’s looked pretty good for a couple weeks now anyway.

Now it’s time to see it produce.

i have a couple of trips planned to NNE over the next month and a half.... would like to see them pile it up as well. Hopefully everyone does well 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Ditto. I haven't posted much in here, but there isn't much to add beyond what's already posted. The upcoming pattern looks great with deets TBD. It's basically a waiting period until we get the pattern change into the shorter range and then we can start focusing on actual s/w's and threats. d10 op bombs don't interest me. d5-7 and we can start talking.

This.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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Posted

They're smart (NWS KTAN) to limit adjectives to 'slightly' colder in that time frame in that excerpt above.. 

Not trying to be a pattern Grinch but, I'd be a little concerned about hemispheric sloshing given to the magnitude of mass-field morphology as we age through the next week.  ...At least initially... 

What I mean by that is sometimes these huge alterations will come down 'sharper' before finding a stabler 'broader' state, and in those earlier sharper time frames the flow out ahead of these incurring deep long-wave trough axis will initially tend to veer S ... Then it takes a passage of a wave or two to eventually get the storm track more favorably aligned/eroded E.

I could almost envision an earlier chapter storm system for this upcoming saga actually slipping W along the front side of Apps ... toting a wind event warm gale.  Something like this happened back in 2003 I think it was... then of course, we know what happened a week later.  

Anyway, the blends of modeling doesn't exactly have deep blue thickness through here during the initial pattern onset probably due to said 'sloshing' (for lack of better word). 

Beyond, I'm still vastly more optimistic for cold than I am for snow given that look among various guidance' ...blends and so forth.  Gradient saturation is going to cause a proportionate velocity response, and that is a limitation (shearing) at individual wave mechanics/scales embedded in the flow.   Granted, ... most read that as "no snow" - which isn't what was just said. Just that implicitly the intent is the probability is sloped more in favor of cold than actual snow events.  Which ... granted, most just read THAT as, "no snow" - which isn't what was just said. Just that implicitly ... if it does snow, it is more likely to be on the lighter side and quick moving.  

j/kiding but you you know -

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Go Kart Mozart

Go Kart Mozart

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

They're smart (NWS KTAN) to limit adjectives to 'slightly' colder in that time frame in that excerpt above.. 

Not trying to be a pattern Grinch but, I'd be a little concerned about hemispheric sloshing given to the magnitude of mass-field morphology as we age through the next week.  ...At least initially... 

What I mean by that is sometimes these huge alterations will come down 'sharper' before finding a stabler 'broader' state, and in those earlier sharper time frames the flow out ahead of these incurring deep long-wave trough axis will initially tend to veer S ... Then it takes a passage of a wave or two to eventually get the storm track more favorably aligned/eroded E.

I could almost envision an earlier chapter storm system for this upcoming saga actually slipping W along the front side of Apps ... toting a wind event warm gale.  Something like this happened back in 2003 I think it was... then of course, we know what happened a week later.  

Anyway, the blends of modeling doesn't exactly have deep blue thickness through here during the initial pattern onset probably due to said 'sloshing' (for lack of better word). 

Beyond, I'm still vastly more optimistic for cold than I am for snow given that look among various guidance' ...blends and so forth.  Gradient saturation is going to cause a proportionate velocity response, and that is a limitation (shearing) at individual wave mechanics/scales embedded in the flow.   Granted, ... most read that as "no snow" - which isn't what was just said. Just that implicitly the intent is the probability is sloped more in favor of cold than actual snow events.  Which ... granted, most just read THAT as, "no snow" - which isn't what was just said. Just that implicitly ... if it does snow, it is more likely to be on the lighter side and quick moving.  

j/kiding but you you know -

Yeah, but why no snow?^_^

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