Late autumn, early winter model mayhem

[weathafella]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Church?

It was too easy...lol

Chilly morning today.   For go kart:  BDR IS -0.6 including yesterday.  With today AOB you’re sealed.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Does anyone really care if we are -.3 or +.1 on the month lol. 

I guess we are looking for a stronger Greenland /Davis Straight block to turn this upcoming period into something with a higher ceiling

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Does anyone really care if we are -.3 or +.1 on the month lol. 

I guess we are looking for a stronger Greenland /Davis Straight block to turn this upcoming period into something with a higher ceiling

I think that isn't the big player. The massive -EPO is the key. The NAO has been slowly trending a bit weaker, although still a player. Pacific is king.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think that isn't the big player. The massive -EPO is the key. The NAO has been slowly trending a bit weaker, although still a player. Pacific is king.

?My point was we can count on the pacific

Pacific looks Amazing As everyone knows

So

Lets not lose any more ridging So that our ceiling for " Potential BIG DOG Chances" is stronger like bull. In fact lets regain some

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Agree, pac rules. As long as the ridge isnt too far east so Cape Cod America snowblows to death.

Blocking is the icing on the cake though, it helps us further sw or if ridging is too far west.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

It was pretty straight forward iceberg

Pacific is locked and loaded, lets see a decent Atlantic hold its ground so our chances for big dogs grow.

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It was pretty straight forward iceberg

Pacific is locked and loaded, lets see a decent Atlantic hold its ground so our chances for big dogs grow.

Well at the very least the Atlantic looks ok.  In fact I would argue you wouldn’t want too much flexure unless it is up and down oscillation.   Current look is ok and better than past recent years.

[mahk_webstah]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think that isn't the big player. The massive -EPO is the key. The NAO has been slowly trending a bit weaker, although still a player. Pacific is king.

For most of us in NE, a massive EPO and a weak NAO block is a great set up, giving us just enough suppression, plenty of cold air, and a chance at big storms via Miller Bs and even southern stream action if it can get activate under that huge, poleward EPO ridge.  All of this while the mountains pile up upslope.  Isn't that exactly what we want?  Who the hell north of NYC would want an overpowering NAO block?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

10 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

For most of us in NE, a massive EPO and a weak NAO block is a great set up, giving us just enough suppression, plenty of cold air, and a chance at big storms via Miller Bs and even southern stream action if it can get activate under that huge, poleward EPO ridge.  All of this while the mountains pile up upslope.  Isn't that exactly what we want?  Who the hell north of NYC would want an overpowering NAO block?

Who wants an "over powering block"

Lets maintain a Block And  not lose it. 

 

Things look good , everyone is breathing

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

21 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It was pretty straight forward iceberg

Pacific is locked and loaded, lets see a decent Atlantic hold its ground so our chances for big dogs grow.

Yea, my post was straight forward to. We agree. 

[CoastalWx]

28 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

?My point was we can count on the pacific

Pacific looks Amazing As everyone knows

So

Lets not lose any more ridging So that our ceiling for " Potential BIG DOG Chances" is stronger like bull. In fact lets regain some

Ahh I see. I misunderstood. Well on the op, there are a few big dogs from time to time, so it has potential. I think the better chance is from Deep South of GOM lows, but miller bs are possible too.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Who wants an "over powering block"

Lets maintain a Block And  not lose it. 

Mark is frightened of NAO.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

16 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Mark is frightened of NAO.  

And Leo for some reason feels like he needs to depend on it. 

[Typhoon Tip]

44 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It was pretty straight forward iceberg

Pacific is locked and loaded, lets see a decent Atlantic hold its ground so our chances for big dogs grow.

you didn't ask me but ...until the total gradient that is being created by present modeled trends/character relaxes a bit, we're not likely to get "big dogs"  ? 

But, it depends upon what do you mean by big dogs tho - 

If are you talking classic Miller A/B hybrid transfers, that go on to exotic with warm air secluded cut-off capture scenarios ... where the storm stalls for 18 hours, does a loop ...while deepening to Terran physical limitations, than no... Despite the immediate spectacle of that huge ginormous curvi-linear flow structure, with crimson fire beset by inky blue like it was drafted on the art bench of an Accuweather dramatist ...  that's not good for 'big dogs. That's only used to sell news papers.

A few of us have been try to get this point across as of late so.. It seems the uptake on the concept has been passive at best, because it diludes the intensity of the drug. I get that... But, if you have already read this sermon ...my apologies.  Too much gradient does not allow those kinematic evolution types. 

With a steeply sloped atmosphere, you get accelerating wind ... When you have heights approaching or exceeded 500 dm (downward), and the ridge nodes in the other direction try also to approach some sort of upper limitation (particularly when the polar opposites are packed into a short long-wave spacing) the extremeness between those too is so massive that the balanced flow just simply overwhelms/saturates the atmosphere with velocities.  What you end up with is fast moving light to moderate events ... 

Which is fine...it should be. Six nickle and dimes will really rack up both a seasonal total and a retention in the snow pack with sufficient cold.    

But, there is a way to get bigger events ... which is the other part of 'depends what you mean' above.  You can get strong out systems that by circumstance of spacing alone, ...end up taking 24 hours to transpire...  The thing is still moving fast, but it's back loaded clear to Texas ...more of an overrunning flavor.  

None of this absolutley precludes getting a bomb out of all that gradient - keep in mind, we're talking about increasing and decreasing probabilities ...much of which is based upon both education and experience in such matters. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

you didn't ask me but ...until the total gradient that is being created presently modeled character of this ensuing pattern relaxes a bit, we're not likely to get "big dogs"  ? 

But, it depends upon what do you mean by big dogs tho - 

If are you talking classic Miller A/B hybrid transfers, that go on to exotic with warm air secluded cut-off capture scenarios ... where the storm stalls for 18 hours, does a loop ...while deepening to Terran physical limitations, than no... Despite the immediate spectacle of that huge ginormous curvi-linear flow structure, with crimson fire beset by inky blue like it was drafted on the art bench of an Accuweather dramatist ...  that's not good for 'big dogs. That's only used to sell news papers.

A few of us have been try to get this point across as of late so.. It seems the uptake on the concept has been passive at best, because it diludes the intensity of the drug. I get that... But, if you have already read this sermon ...my apologies.  Too much gradient does not allow those kinematic evolution types. 

With a steeply sloped atmosphere, you get accelerating wind ... When you have heights approaching or exceeded 500 dm (downward), and the ridge nodes in the other direction try also to approach some sort of upper limitation (particularly when the polar opposites are packed into a short long-wave spacing) the extremeness between those too is so massive that the balanced flow just simply overwhelms/saturates the atmosphere with velocities.  What you end up with is fast moving light to moderate events ... 

Which is fine...it should be. Six nickle and dimes will really rack up both a seasonal total and a retention in the snow pack with sufficient cold.    

Yup nickels and dimes to lay down a pack . No big ones likely in Dec. We’ve been talking about it, but vast majority here would welcome that

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup nickels and dimes to lay down a pack . No big ones likely in Dec. We’ve been talking about it, but vast majority here would welcome that

Yeah -ha... not having anything to do with weather science, ...but, my personal druthers align that way anyway.  

Not going to lie, the big dawgs are a hoot. Fascinating and entertaining... BUT, they tend to happen in patterns that take like 45 days to f'n reload.  You may or may not recall the ZYZYGY storm back in '86 ... about the only thing good that happened in that latter half of that decade (kidding of course...).  That storm pretty much buttoned up the winter ...Jan 3-5th (I think, Will?) and then it was endless days sun at 38/22 until late March...  I mean it may have done something minor here in there... but by and large, that atmosphere settled into a stable state where nothing happened after.  

That's not that uncommon... The post mortem after 'big dawgs' can be particularly grueling to winter enthusiasm because of that tendency to quiescence stagnated patterns of blase ennui that settle in.  

Contrasting, let's not exhaust ALL the restoring forces in one swoop... Lets spread it out... 

The reason for all this is pretty simple really... A big dawg requires a lot of moving parts being in sync for one, but, usually large masses of the atmosphere are involved, and well...big objects take longer to move around.  

[CoastalWx]

I think strong low pressure with Deep South origins is possible. The trough axis is far enough west to support it and it only takes a decent s/w to do it when you have the balmy GOM. But as Tip said...if the flow is compressed and the balance of gradients form an incompressible jet, then expect more clippers or perhaps overrunners.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Solid look developing for winter enthusiasts.  I agree with the sentiments being expressed.  One thing I would look for is any sub-tropical connection that undercut the amplified ridging.  That could lead to some pretty juiced up systems, albeit, quick hitting (progressive).

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Ill cast my vote for a over running system from here to Texas.  I had my fill of 4 hour juiced up 1'+ forecast systems.

On a serious note

Could there be a multi(4-8) sites  storm by storm cumulative grading contest for this winter.

I imagine this has been attempted before but, include fair representation of the entire subforum. (Without going too wild) i.e keep it basic

i.e 

HFD.BTV.ORH.BOS.EWB.GYX.

And as long as 3 locations are forecast some potential accumulations , run the contest.

We all follow every dang storm anyhow

[J Paul Gordon]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah -ha... not having anything to do with weather science, ...but, my personal druthers align that way anyway.  

Not going to lie, the big dawgs are a hoot. Fascinating and entertaining... BUT, they tend to happen in patterns that take like 45 days to f'n reload.  You may or may not recall the ZYZYGY storm back in '86 ... about the only thing good that happened in that latter half of that decade (kidding of course...).  That storm pretty much buttoned up the winter ...Jan 3-5th (I think, Will?) and then it was endless days sun at 38/22 until late March...  I mean it may have done something minor here in there... but by and large, that atmosphere settled into a stable state where nothing happened after.  

That's not that uncommon... The post mortem after 'big dawgs' can be particularly grueling to winter enthusiasm because of that tendency to quiescence stagnated patterns of blase ennui that settle in.  

Contrasting, let's not exhaust ALL the restoring forces in one swoop... Lets spread it out... 

The reason for all this is pretty simple really... A big dawg requires a lot of moving parts being in sync for one, but, usually large masses of the atmosphere are involved, and well...big objects take longer to move around.  

Unless it is February 2015 when all the rules got broke. But then again, it pretty much proved the norm.

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Unless it is February 2015 when all the rules got broke. But then again, it pretty much proved the norm.

Heh, it's deeper than that ...conceptually/physically, what happened in 2015. 

It was so exceptionally cold.... exotically so really, that the snow ratios were exceedingly large.  20 and 30::1 were common in a three week stretch...  We had one coastal in there where the air temperature in interior Middlesex Co was 1 F ...  literally, a single degree above 0.  With snow and wind whipping into an 18" ceremony of cryospheric surrealism in and of sintered pixie dust. 

One telling thing there is that storms didn't really stall... though there were some deep ones, owing to the intensity of the cold alone (though).   But you did say 'broke the rules' so ...yeah... 

But my point is, even then ...there were vestiges of too much of good thing going on.  Progressive storms that were racking up snow totals are less water. It sort of both over-achieved but didn't at the same time.

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup nickels and dimes to lay down a pack . No big ones likely in Dec. We’ve been talking about it, but vast majority here would welcome that

December nickel and dimes are awesome...as long as they aren't followed up by a nasty Rottweiler of a Grinch storm for the first big dog. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup nickels and dimes to lay down a pack . No big ones likely in Dec. We’ve been talking about it, but vast majority here would welcome that

I think the pattern begins that way, but from Xmas eve onward, as the pattern relaxes, is when the door opens for a larger event imo.

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the pattern begins that way, but from Xmas eve onward, as the pattern relaxes, is when the door opens for a larger event imo.

That would be nice 

[dryslot]

3 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

For most of us in NE, a massive EPO and a weak NAO block is a great set up, giving us just enough suppression, plenty of cold air, and a chance at big storms via Miller Bs and even southern stream action if it can get activate under that huge, poleward EPO ridge.  All of this while the mountains pile up upslope.  Isn't that exactly what we want?  Who the hell north of NYC would want an overpowering NAO block?

Said no one ever in NNE................

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Smoking cirrus is still legal,right 

[Typhoon Tip]

Ha ha... funny.

anyway, the tele numbers fit well with what Scott was mentioning earlier re the NAO aspect attenuating - supports the operational dimming in that regard.  

We discussed this potential with that index shirking on promises  - so to speak. It has completely pulled out completely, but it's agents are hinting ...

The upshot is that the WPO is continuing to trend negative ... and that means that more of the complete north Pacific arc is going to be in the AB phase, which is code for good if you like winter

I'm also impressed with that silly little D8-10 mean freebie at PSU e-wall showing a tendency more and more toward an actual cross-polar flow - that's not something we've seen in recent years.  

good lord... hades hath no glory should we ever pop off an SSW ... this is all happening up under and utterly dead stratosphere.  pretty remarkable actually 

[Typhoon Tip]

Nice changes on the 12z GFS ...  turn for the better with less compression/gradient and more individual wave mechanical forcing returning to the look on this run. 

[SnowHole413]

 

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

That Dec 7-10th period has been modeled by-in-large now for a few days now as the potential for the 1st widespread winter storm.  I do like that period as well.