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Late autumn, early winter model mayhem


Typhoon Tip

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Latest EPS trough axis is where we want it, along with that the increase in precip is shown. also the departures of -150- 200 in 5h height at such a long range indicate to me they will probably be deeper which of course will be the same throughout the columns. ENS have 3 to 4 inches of liquid downstream from the Great lakes, might be the year I take a LES roadtrip. 

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Ha ... lovin' the enthusiasm but ... I'd be happy with a 'pattern change' and let's rejoin in a three days and see how the 'hammers' are wieldin'

I'm a seasoned veteran of the usage of teleconnectors and as far as the GEFs contribution to this fray is concerned, I have seen bigger signals from them do less than hammers. 

Which duh, obviously 'hammer' is a subjective term, but, sometimes these signals are overplayed in the runs and something more like a climatological +PNAP look transpires.  

That might actually not be a bad thing as an after thought.  I mean, as is (and you can clearly see this in the 00z GFS operational) there is such a huge gradient between the nadir of that evolving long-wave trough to the surrounding rampart of static heights and or ridging, that the flow ends up to fast ...and well, we've been over that ad nauseam. But, if the flow were to take on more of a 1 or low end 2 standard deviation, we could then get the individual waves in the streams to show a more mechanical presence and that is where your snow storms would come from more proficiently.  The 00z run would probably get the job done at some point over that week to 10 days of it, but you'd be threading timing needles and junk. The best way to waste a great look is to over saturate the gradients.  

But...in fairness to Thor ... I'm not really referring the EPS ... so if those somehow exotic that would be a neat trick; they usually aren't histrionic about these sort of things (it seems...).

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Can we stall a front to our south for once...and ride em up our fannies, that would be a good feeling before the holidays.

I'm just more intrigued that it looks like we may have the cold remain in place over the holidays which may erase the possibilities of a grinch storm.

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Dryslot said it looked "interesting for that time frame", he didn't say the snow would start...but you just did.   Hope you're right...the sooner the better.  

Its an interesting set up as you get an SLP that rides the boundary up the coast but its where that boundary lies is the question is it inland or is it off the coast? But that the one that sets the pattern it seems.

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He did say it. Last night 

The guy hates me, but look, give credit where credits due

Nobody hates you...but I get it, if he said it last night then yes give him the credit.  I just saw him say that time frame looks interesting...and we all know what  he means,  some potential frozen precip...somewhere.  

 

 

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