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Late autumn, early winter model mayhem


Typhoon Tip

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4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The set up is pretty good for an over running event. You’ll see up in this latitude you don’t need to hope and pray with every storm to get snow. That’s kind of a classic look for overrunning.

 

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

It's actually a great setup for NE

Noted. Still learning the area's climatology. 

I think it has been a while since we had a true overrunning event down south so the look isn't familiar to me.

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5 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

 

Noted. Still learning the area's climatology. 

I think it has been a while since we had a true overrunning event down south so the look isn't familiar to me.

Well it could still suck. One strong low and up into NY she goes. But what happens is that you get a nrly drain sometimes as high pressure noses in. Those reds at 500mb can have temps in the teens at the surface. We saw that a lot in 94. In fact this area where I am at one point had ocean effect snow on NE winds because it was so cold near the surface, but sleet falling from warmth above 850mb lol. Anyways something to watch, esp where you are.

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23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Depends where the gradient sets up. Could screw the M.A. But we shall see. Could still screw up here in New England too though latitude is def a good thing in that pattern coming up. 

Do you think my area will stay cold during the period before Christmas?. I think the South East ridge is being overplayed with the models as today they are flattening it out some. But the 23rd doesn't look so good here temperature wise. 

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Dec 22 has been trending flatter. Maybe we can trend that into a regular SWFE. Still needs another nudge. But it's not as horrific looking as a couple days ago. 06z GFS nearly got there and euro has been slowly trending. 

Eirher way, even if that one fails we will have another shot Xmas eve/Xmas day

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Think it’s due to the pack 

Something else has been up with it. It’s like it’s trying to max radiate everybody every night. MAV was doing it in Novie too. It’s been okay the past few days up here with the good radiational cooling, but when there’s mixed conditions or clouds it’s been putrid.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Oh wait...too warm? It had been running way too cold up here. :lol:

Although thepast week has been better.

Well just for KBOS, it seems too warm for daytime highs. MAV and MET. 6z MAV has 35 for BOS. Down from 37 at 00z. MET has 37. LAMP looks like 33 which probably is close to what will happen. On wednesday it was about 6-7F too warm. Yeesh.

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58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Dec 22 has been trending flatter. Maybe we can trend that into a regular SWFE. Still needs another nudge. But it's not as horrific looking as a couple days ago. 06z GFS nearly got there and euro has been slowly trending. 

Eirher way, even if that one fails we will have another shot Xmas eve/Xmas day

It's going to be a long and painful week.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Well just for KBOS, it seems too warm for daytime highs. MAV and MET. 6z MAV has 35 for BOS. Down from 37 at 00z. MET has 37. LAMP looks like 33 which probably is close to what will happen. On wednesday it was about 6-7F too warm. Yeesh.

Yeah I have noticed the highs the past few days verifying a little colder. The last 3 afternoons were all 18-22F here and there was nothing that cold on MOS. Maybe NCEP is sabotaging it so that no one will miss it when they can it. ;)

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I have noticed the highs the past few days verifying a little colder. The last 3 afternoons were all 18-22F here and there was nothing that cold on MOS. Maybe NCEP is sabotaging it so that no one will miss it when they can it. ;)

The NCEP Super Duper Wowie model blend will save us all. 

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