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Late autumn, early winter model mayhem


Typhoon Tip

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I said week 4 skill isn't great lol. 

 

It gets treated the same way, whether good or bad. That's why I said "if it happens." I do not know...but it would not surprise me to see the -EPO break down.

I would be suprised if the EPO didn't break down Jan 2006 style.

I'm hoping for one big event before that happens.

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Monday may a sneaky messy day. Not a lot of precip, but a little snow...maybe even some FZDZ in spots. 

I was thinking that we could get light snow and maybe some FZDZ like you said starting later Sunday night and going like all day Monday....lot of moisture around, just a question of lift.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I was thinking that we could get light snow and maybe some FZDZ like you said starting later Sunday night and going like all day Monday....lot of moisture around, just a question of lift.

It would not shock me to get a very weak low develop and help keep winds light nrly too.

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13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would be suprised if the EPO didn't break down Jan 2006 style.

I'm hoping for one big event before that happens.

I will add that it's possible the breakdown is being rushed, especially at this range, but that timing seems pretty on point considering everything I looked at pre season.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie has some light snow for Monday too....that boundary kind of rots just south of the area for 24 hours, so we'll have to see if any ripples of low pressure try to form. Could be pretty wintry if that happens.

We’ll post snow pics outside the GTG.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie has some light snow for Monday too....that boundary kind of rots just south of the area for 24 hours, so we'll have to see if any ripples of low pressure try to form. Could be pretty wintry if that happens.

12 hours of light snow, even if it amounts to less than 2"  would certainly put some folks here in a better mood.

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19 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

12 hours of light snow, even if it amounts to less than 2"  would certainly put some folks here in a better mood.

Yeah and it's very possible that happens. Not very exciting but something to track...low probability we get a little more robust low along the front and maybe we could talk about accumulations higher than 2"....but right now it looks like mostly mood snows.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and it's very possible that happens. Not very exciting but something to track...low probability we get a little more robust low along the front and maybe we could talk about accumulations higher than 2"....but right now it looks like mostly mood snows.

CMC looked somewhat snowy.  We shall see...

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32 minutes ago, weathafella said:

CMC looked somewhat snowy.  We shall see...

Yeah well the ggem always seems snowy. Lol. We'll see. The setup is there for a few inches if we can get a wave to form along the boundary. Just not sure we can get a half decent vortmax to survive the shredder. 

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2 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

I was watching Joe Chioffi last night and he mentioned that having 3 snow events so early in December was very unusual, especially for coastal areas. Is this true?

I would say for the south coast for sure, it is pretty rare. Once you start climbing latitude on the eastern coast of New England, it obviously becomes more frequent...I'd have to look up how often BOS has 3 measurable events before 12/15. Not too common, but not extremely rare either. Off the top of my head, I'd guess maybe 2-3 times per decade?

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