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Late autumn, early winter model mayhem


Typhoon Tip

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pattern looks kind of crappy week 4 but we know about week 4's accuracy. 

Week 3 looks really nice though. Leon with absolutely frigid stuff pressing down from Quebec and above average in the SE. 

You know that EPO was gonna dump a sh it load of cold air. I look forward to seeing what transpires

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35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like winter is over after mid Jan on the weeklies.

Let’s see who takes the bait lol.

In all seriousness, it doesn’t look promising if you like decent sized events. 

Maybe we keep scoring 1” clippers, but at some point, we need something bigger if we’re going to keep climo pace

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8 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said:

Should we really take any model output seriously four weeks in advance? The models can’t even come to a consensus the day before an event. 

Well there is a little skill when talking a wholesale pattern look. The exact details are always much harder. Anyways, it could be wrong...week 4 skill isn't that great. I'm just saying if that happened...it's ugly.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Well there is a little skill when talking a wholesale pattern look. The exact details are always much harder. Anyways, it could be wrong...week 4 skill isn't that great. I'm just saying if that happened...it's ugly.

Understood.  But just a question here....when week 4 looks good, it always comes with the caveat of "we know how bad week 4 is",  but now that it shows something ugly, all of a sudden it has a little skill??    How come it doesn't go both ways?  

 

And I'm not worried about a month from now...it'll change anyways.  And if not..then we'll all deal with it.

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Understood.  But just a question here....when week 4 looks good, it always comes with the caveat of "we know how bad week 4 is",  but now that it shows something ugly, all of a sudden it has a little skill??    How come it doesn't go both ways?  

 

And I'm not worried about a month from now...it'll change anyways.  And if not..then we'll all deal with it.

I said week 4 skill isn't great lol. 

 

It gets treated the same way, whether good or bad. That's why I said "if it happens." I do not know...but it would not surprise me to see the -EPO break down.

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I wouldn't live or die on the weeklies past week 2

Well if I were to find a positive...it's if we can get those height anomalies in SE Canada, further north. That at least would allow for high pressure to build in as storms come up from the S and SW. The highest anomalies were near and north of New England. So, it's not a true SE ridge verbatim which is good I guess. It's just a milder pattern. Anyways, that's about as much as I can talk about anything past week 3.

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well if I were to find a positive...it's if we can get those height anomalies in SE Canada, further north. That at least would allow for high pressure to build in as storms come up from the S and SW. The highest anomalies were near and north of New England. So, it's not a true SE ridge verbatim which is good I guess. It's just a milder pattern. Anyways, that's about as much as I can talk about anything past week 3.

Ben Noll would be proud.  Lol

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

That's an ugly look week 4 onward. Trough from western Canada to Baja CA. Ugly if that happens.

It wouldn't surprise me if this happened...from the non scientific view point, no pattern stays for ever. The ridge on the west coast is not going to last forever, eventually it will be replaced with a trough. A trough that is proportional in strength and staying power of the ridge it replaced. Its like an atmospheric seesaw- when one side is down, the other side is up...the seesaw is not both up or both down at the same time...yes, I know it's never that simple...im sure someone will chime in with something...yada yada yada

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