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Late autumn, early winter model mayhem


Typhoon Tip

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah 2007 this is not. 

Maybe we'll avoid the Grinch this year...GFS is trying to avoid it this run...almost just an overrunning system on 12/22...and then is preparing for a cold event on Xmas?

 

I'll sacrifice some snow to avoid the Grinch and keep a less assaulted snowy landscape....but I'm still expecting the Grinch to win out.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe we'll avoid the Grinch this year...GFS is trying to avoid it this run...almost just an overrunning system on 12/22...and then is preparing for a cold event on Xmas?

 

I'll sacrifice some snow to avoid the Grinch and keep a less assaulted snowy landscape....but I'm still expecting the Grinch to win out.

NOOOO DONT GIVE IT POWER!!

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6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Why is the confluence over Newfoundland shoving down the SE ridge in the extended different this month than it was then. 

 

 

I don't think it has to be different...but I took Scott's statement as to be how December has performed through roughly 20 days vs 2007....assuming nothing crazy appears the next 5-6 days. It will be not even close to 2007's league by the 20th. But we could def have a very good final 10 days of the month to change that. 2007 tailed off in in the final 10 days after the norlun event on the 20-21st.

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man Ryan’s long range is depressing next week. Not even a snowflake symbol or icing after tomorrow night . Suspect that will change 

Since Ryan posted he was bored and the LR looked meh he has had to deal with 2 snow events in a week. We mild up then it's a real air mass battle  Christmas week and beyond looks volatile.

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30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't think it has to be different...but I took Scott's statement as to be how December has performed through roughly 20 days vs 2007....assuming nothing crazy appears the next 5-6 days. It will be not even close to 2007's league by the 20th. But we could def have a very good final 10 days of the month to change that. 2007 tailed off in in the final 10 days after the norlun event on the 20-21st.

I got u.   I just mean the confluent strong gradient pattern on the Atlantic side looks somewhat like that...tangible weather results TBD. 

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27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wow...end of GFS run has 850 temps near -40C in southern Quebec...lol. That's like 1933 territory for December if that is able to dive a bit further south.

 

That airmass is a dendrite cold fetish special....and metherb.

If I didn't have the birds I'd be all for it, but a -2/-22 type day will make me put the heat lamp in the coop and I really want no part of worrying about that overnight.

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea none of us can read everything as I am pretty sure we all have a life. 

Agreed.

Hopefully modeling shuffles a bit....because right now it doesn't look good between now and xmas. Plenty of time, but if we somehow clear xmas without another significant event, then we aren't going to have a ton of time before things go to $hit.

I hope my winter outlook starts to go into the $hitter after about the first week of January.

Gonna be a good break, I think.

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Just now, weathafella said:

Those weeklies imply the first half of January is AOB

Pattern looks kind of crappy week 4 but we know about week 4's accuracy. 

Week 3 looks really nice though. Leon with absolutely frigid stuff pressing down from Quebec and above average in the SE. 

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