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Late autumn, early winter model mayhem


Typhoon Tip

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15 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

So I’m thinking a Grinch is inevitable at this point? It’s been modeled pretty consistently. I’m not gonna lie, the couple of snow events we’ve had already are nice. 

The general rule is that any major snow storm depicted in the long range is a phantom and should be tossed, but you can lock any cutter that shows in the 10-15. Much easier to cut than hit the benchmark.

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4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Not much too look forward too on todays runs. Maybe some snow showers if we get lucky.

I guess if you like rain and warmth you will like the grinch cutter towards Christmas.

Death, taxes, and the torch on Christmas Day.

Psst-models are all cold for 12/25-GFS has snow later in the day.

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32 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Not much too look forward too on todays runs. Maybe some snow showers if we get lucky.

I guess if you like rain and warmth you will like the grinch cutter towards Christmas.

Death, taxes, and the torch on Christmas Day.

I think most in SNE expect this by now. 

I don't care as much anymore like I used to. 

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Lol the signals are very conflicting...MJO going into cold phases and massive -EPO argue for cold to press.  One run the models look great in the mid and long range, the next not so much.   Just got to wait it out and see what happens as we get closer.  Things seem to be in a state of flux...models are back and forth with grinch and snow/mix for the holiday..toss up at this point.  Details TBD.

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44 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol the signals are very conflicting...MJO going into cold phases and massive -EPO argue for cold to press.  One run the models look great in the mid and long range, the next not so much.   Just got to wait it out and see what happens as we get closer.  Things seem to be in a state of flux...models are back and forth with grinch and snow/mix for the holiday..toss up at this point.  Details TBD.

Models are finally seeing the EPO ridge squashed the ridge in the east. It will trend colder on the models.

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1 hour ago, Hoth said:

The general rule is that any major snow storm depicted in the long range is a phantom and should be tossed, but you can lock any cutter that shows in the 10-15. Much easier to cut than hit the benchmark.

 People always forget that we have 100 mile window for snowstorms and 1000 mile window for whiifs or cutters.

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol the signals are very conflicting...MJO going into cold phases and massive -EPO argue for cold to press.  One run the models look great in the mid and long range, the next not so much.   Just got to wait it out and see what happens as we get closer.  Things seem to be in a state of flux...models are back and forth with grinch and snow/mix for the holiday..toss up at this point.  Details TBD.

Exactly, it doesn't make much sense. It leaves you wondering what is actually going to happen. I would say the MJO and massive -EPO wins out but I could be wrong. 

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1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

While some are sucking their thumbs in the fetal position over the pattern..the RGEM says enjoy another round of 2-4" Fri night

Need to see some more guidance come on board...it's an outlier at the moment...but it's plausible. The trough has always looked decent...just need to sharpen that vortmax a little and it could def produce a band of light snow. In a sense, we're kind of getting a little unlucky with this morning and tomorrow night...wouldn't have taken much change for each system to be a solid 3-6" type event.

But we'll see, maybe this one can make a big comeback in the next 24 hours.

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Just now, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Is this for the same areas as today, or more widespread?

Gradient looks more NW to SE than today which was more N-S. So some of the same places will be in the best spot like S RI and the Cape...but SW CT might not be the best spot and a little further N in eastern MA might be a little better than today. It could still be a lotta nothing though.

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