Hoth Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 15 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: So I’m thinking a Grinch is inevitable at this point? It’s been modeled pretty consistently. I’m not gonna lie, the couple of snow events we’ve had already are nice. The general rule is that any major snow storm depicted in the long range is a phantom and should be tossed, but you can lock any cutter that shows in the 10-15. Much easier to cut than hit the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Must be a boring run....no one posted mich. 12z gfs brought back the Tues-Wed event - as mostly rain, despite a track that seems to run from Boston Harbor to Campobello. That might be logical if there was no cold air anyplace nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 It makes you wonder what is truly going to happen. As the 12Z GEFS is backing the MJO phase 7-8. Where on the other hand the Euro Ensembles seem to want nothing to do with that. Also a strong negative EPO is notorious for pushing on ridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Not much too look forward too on todays runs. Maybe some snow showers if we get lucky. I guess if you like rain and warmth you will like the grinch cutter towards Christmas. Death, taxes, and the torch on Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 32 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: So I’m thinking a Grinch is inevitable at this point? It’s been modeled pretty consistently. I’m not gonna lie, the couple of snow events we’ve had already are nice. hahahahahaha! It has changed every run since it came into range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Not much too look forward too on todays runs. Maybe some snow showers if we get lucky. I guess if you like rain and warmth you will like the grinch cutter towards Christmas. Death, taxes, and the torch on Christmas Day. Psst-models are all cold for 12/25-GFS has snow later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 15z with a huge northwest shift for tomorrow night https://www.americanwx.com/forum/uploads/monthly_2017_12/image.png.e19a32e038aef676473b9a59bd1ef783.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Psst-models are all cold for 12/25-GFS has snow later in the day. I should have clarified... torch and rain just before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I should have clarified... torch and rain just before Christmas. Yeah that’s an annual given...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 32 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Not much too look forward too on todays runs. Maybe some snow showers if we get lucky. I guess if you like rain and warmth you will like the grinch cutter towards Christmas. Death, taxes, and the torch on Christmas Day. I think most in SNE expect this by now. I don't care as much anymore like I used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 39 minutes ago, mreaves said: hahahahahaha! It has changed every run since it came into range. 36 hours back it had Augusta with 51F RA for Christmas. Now the temps for 12/25 are 25/7, with snow a day later. Stay tuned for the continuing midcourt-seat-at-Wimbledon experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Lol the signals are very conflicting...MJO going into cold phases and massive -EPO argue for cold to press. One run the models look great in the mid and long range, the next not so much. Just got to wait it out and see what happens as we get closer. Things seem to be in a state of flux...models are back and forth with grinch and snow/mix for the holiday..toss up at this point. Details TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 So this weekend is dead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, Whineminster said: So this weekend is dead? It’s been in critical condition since Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 9 minutes ago, Whineminster said: So this weekend is dead? Light snow tomorrow night Pike south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 12 minutes ago, Whineminster said: So this weekend is dead? This afternoon it's been defibrillated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 44 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol the signals are very conflicting...MJO going into cold phases and massive -EPO argue for cold to press. One run the models look great in the mid and long range, the next not so much. Just got to wait it out and see what happens as we get closer. Things seem to be in a state of flux...models are back and forth with grinch and snow/mix for the holiday..toss up at this point. Details TBD. Models are finally seeing the EPO ridge squashed the ridge in the east. It will trend colder on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Reggie gone wild for tomorrow night? Looks pretty amped at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoth said: The general rule is that any major snow storm depicted in the long range is a phantom and should be tossed, but you can lock any cutter that shows in the 10-15. Much easier to cut than hit the benchmark. People always forget that we have 100 mile window for snowstorms and 1000 mile window for whiifs or cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: People always forget that we have 100 mile window for snowstorms and 1000 mile window for whiifs or cutters. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 lol, bunch of jokers in here. Stuck in an 80s pattern it looks like. Dustings then cutters then brutal cold. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Just now, Whineminster said: lol, bunch of jokers in here. Stuck in an 80s pattern it looks like. Dustings then cutters then brutal cold. Nice. I've had a good December so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Lol the signals are very conflicting...MJO going into cold phases and massive -EPO argue for cold to press. One run the models look great in the mid and long range, the next not so much. Just got to wait it out and see what happens as we get closer. Things seem to be in a state of flux...models are back and forth with grinch and snow/mix for the holiday..toss up at this point. Details TBD. Exactly, it doesn't make much sense. It leaves you wondering what is actually going to happen. I would say the MJO and massive -EPO wins out but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I've had a good December so far. Yeah, can't complain so far, roughly the same amount of snow as last December around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 While some are sucking their thumbs in the fetal position over the pattern..the RGEM says enjoy another round of 2-4" Fri night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: While some are sucking their thumbs in the fetal position over the pattern..the RGEM says enjoy another round of 2-4" Fri night Is this for the same areas as today, or more widespread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said: While some are sucking their thumbs in the fetal position over the pattern..the RGEM says enjoy another round of 2-4" Fri night Need to see some more guidance come on board...it's an outlier at the moment...but it's plausible. The trough has always looked decent...just need to sharpen that vortmax a little and it could def produce a band of light snow. In a sense, we're kind of getting a little unlucky with this morning and tomorrow night...wouldn't have taken much change for each system to be a solid 3-6" type event. But we'll see, maybe this one can make a big comeback in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Just now, Sugarloaf1989 said: Is this for the same areas as today, or more widespread? Gradient looks more NW to SE than today which was more N-S. So some of the same places will be in the best spot like S RI and the Cape...but SW CT might not be the best spot and a little further N in eastern MA might be a little better than today. It could still be a lotta nothing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 11 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Yeah, can't complain so far, roughly the same amount of snow as last December around here. Last December was actually pretty good in WNE despite the pre-Christmas Grinch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 16 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Exactly, it doesn't make much sense. It leaves you wondering what is actually going to happen. I would say the MJO and massive -EPO wins out but I could be wrong. An -epo plus +NAO is cold for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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