ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 What you can say is that look is classic -EPO with a positive NAO. It can frequently mean overrunning but not always. In this case the PNA isn't largely positive...instead a trough in the west so this def increases the chance for SWFE, overrunning systems, and cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: To me that looks more like lots of low level cold getting overrun by SE pig ridge... to me that looks icy SNE/ snowy NNE I don’t know-with the cold modeled it would suggest to me it would be deep enough for snow. Look at the H85 temps. Leonesque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 1 minute ago, WxBlue said: Uh... not really. Really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: I don’t know-with the cold modeled it would suggest to me it would be deep enough for snow. Look at the H85 temps. Leonesque. 12/25, 18z gfs has +2C at RUM, +3 at WVL (and the same for each at H9.) I don't think it will be any better in between, in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Really How is it possible to determine if it's an icy look from using the mean 2m temperature anomaly 11 to 15 days out when you know there are so many other factors to consider. Beside, I wouldn't waste my energy obsessing on anything that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 9 minutes ago, tamarack said: 12/25, 18z gfs has +2C at RUM, +3 at WVL (and the same for each at H9.) I don't think it will be any better in between, in my area. But the whole discussion is EPS. I don’t think anyone (at least not me) is basing a long range ice argument on an operational run 11-15 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 EPO on the gefs is tanking off the charts just before xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 I'm not the biggest fan of the look. I'm all set with getting 10" of snow and having it disappear 3 days later. Also, the ridge retros on the EPS in AK. That's not what we want. Would be nice if the voodoo -NAO would show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm not the biggest fan of the look. I'm all set with getting 10" of snow and having it disappear 3 days later. Also, the ridge retros on the EPS in AK. That's not what we want. Would be nice if the voodoo -NAO would show up. Maybe you can fire a gun at 80,000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Too bad we're wasting the trough this weekend. Could've been a nice little event. Hopefully the stuff in the 12/22-12/25 timeframe works out...don't see a whole lot before then, but never say never...sometimes smaller events sneak up. 12/18 is looking like nothing at the moment, but there's a weak shortwave ejecting from the southwest, so who knows, it could produce some light precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: Maybe you can fire a gun at 80,000 feet. I'd like to fire Judah into the tropical Stratosphere. Then, we may get a warming event over the poles, as all that hot..bullsh*t air coming out of his mouth makes its way via Brewer Dobson circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 I’d keep an eye on Fri nite and Sun nite/Mon an for light events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I’d keep an eye on Fri nite and Sun nite/Mon an for light events At the moment, it looks like nothing...maybe a few flurries or snow showers. We're close enough that it's probably not turning into a real event...there's a slight chance we end up a little more unstable than guidance shows and maybe we get more widespread snow showers, but I'm not holding my breath on that. The Cape could get clipped with some light snow on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 22 minutes ago, WxBlue said: How is it possible to determine if it's an icy look from using the mean 2m temperature anomaly 11 to 15 days out when you know there are so many other factors to consider. Beside, I wouldn't waste my energy obsessing on anything that far out. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: this He is getting a lesson in DIT-ology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'd like to fire Judah into the tropical Stratosphere. Then, we may get a warming event over the poles, as all that hot..bullsh*t air coming out of his mouth makes its way via Brewer Dobson circulation. lol. That's a nice ice box look up in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'd like to fire Judah into the tropical Stratosphere. Then, we may get a warming event over the poles, as all that hot..bullsh*t air coming out of his mouth makes its way via Brewer Dobson circulation. he agrees with Kevin with his latest tweet:Judah Cohen (@judah47) · Twitter We don't produce #ice maps but strong southerly flow aloft undercut by low level #Arctic air is optimal setup for an ice storm from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast in late December. Ice is the most devastating #winter storm. pic.twitter.com/gPxu4wr… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 This pattern coming up in D9-14 is definitely more favorable for ice than, say, a big +PNA pattern. But you still need a lot of ingredients to come together for big icing events. Could easily just be a cutter with a transition period of ice or an overrunning snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 21 minutes ago, mreaves said: He is getting a lesson in DIT-ology My guess is he is a pretty sharp kid and already has him figured out................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Reggie and GGEM are trying their hardest to get something more than flurries for late Fri night/early Saturday in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Is the GFS showing us getting a wee bit of help on the Atlantic side? Not a full-blown -NAO, but some ridging pressing into Greenland from the east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Snowy drive home after a full belly Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Reggie and GGEM are trying their hardest to get something more than flurries for late Fri night/early Saturday in here. We said to eye it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Big overruning potential near Xmas with the EPO tanking and the ridge flexing on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We said to eye it Still not very exciting...but I'll be happy if we can pull off an inch or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Ukie is also further northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Still not very exciting...but I'll be happy if we can pull off an inch or something. This post is dripping with opportunity but I will high road it. I do think we will have snow chances with mix also of course risking cutting but hopefully not getting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Inch would be good. Would be nice to cover up bare spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Still not very exciting...but I'll be happy if we can pull off an inch or something. Same here. I loved today’s 1.9”. Freshened up the icy pack and made a very festive scene. Any inch is good inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 I’d bang the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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