ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: But a Christmas Day blizzard is also. Yeah Grinch on the 23rd, but the pattern redeems itself two days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Maybe more like snow to ridiculous ice on Xmas/Xmas night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 CMC says no grinch-snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 17 minutes ago, powderfreak said: No I get what you are saying, I don't think cutters are that disasterous here either and certainly not at the mountain except for surface conditions. Our benefit is we don't have the CAD you do but we have it to some degree East of the mountains, but we get the CAA first and it's often well into the 20s here before other areas on the end, so duration is limited. But when you compare storm powder in the long run to a brief melt and freeze, why not keep the storm powder as long as possible and then turn it to ice? I don't see why you'd want to turn it to ice as soon as possible. I think you want to delay the first cutter as long as possible because no matter what, each cutter is breaking down the pack in some way. Now front ender to cutter is a different ball game...can easily go to net gain with a few inches to absorb the rain. I think of the term cutter as damaging. In your case or the rest of NNE..it's the damming that helps. But a cutter in general would be bad. I know we are talking semantics...but I'd rather have the LE in the pack be from snow..vs both. Your second paragraph is on point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think of the term cutter as damaging. In your case or the rest of NNE..it's the damming that helps. But a cutter in general would be bad. I know we are talking semantics...but I'd rather have the LE in the pack be from snow..vs both. Your second paragraph is on point. Yeah very fair point. Cutter = bad but maybe you can spin it to being ok because now the pack is frozen. But yeah the longer I can go without it raining the better IMO, damming or quick cool down aside. I'll concede that if we are talking non-snow then I want a boatload of sleet to solidify the pack. That one I can get behind haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah very fair point. Cutter = bad but maybe you can spin it to being ok because now the pack is frozen. But yeah the longer I can go without it raining the better IMO, damming or quick cool down aside. I'll concede that if we are talking non-snow then I want a boatload of sleet to solidify the pack. That one I can get behind haha. The pack resiliency we had in March 2015 was impressive. The LEQ in the pack that month was able to support my weight. It just did not want to melt. That was the first real true pack I can ever recall. Sure maybe we had 12" packs with lots of water in it at times..but 2-3' of manpack was truly impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 35 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah very fair point. Cutter = bad but maybe you can spin it to being ok because now the pack is frozen. But yeah the longer I can go without it raining the better IMO, damming or quick cool down aside. I'll concede that if we are talking non-snow then I want a boatload of sleet to solidify the pack. That one I can get behind haha. Make sure it has a comfy pillow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Maybe more like snow to ridiculous ice on Xmas/Xmas night. Can we really have an ice event, though, with nw winds in a coastal? seems like an odd solution thermal wise. edit: check that, south winds. so its possible. regardless, will change 56 times anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Can we move some of this stuff to banter? I come to discuss guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Coastal after coastal after coastal as far a the eyes can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Can we really have an ice event, though, with nw winds in a coastal? seems like an odd solution thermal wise. edit: check that, south winds. so its possible. regardless, will change 56 times anyway. that d13 thing has N-NNE at 10m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 The south east ridge got a big punch in the face by the last few GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 The euro brings back light snow Friday overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Euro is going flatter for early next week...its almost trying for a SWFE look with some good CAD at the sfc...kind of disjointed though. It has a little light snow to ice inland verbatim. Maybe a few inches in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 it's like a roulette wheel with these models as far as favorable vs not favorable, for winter enthusiasts. Spin the wheel... black is is a piece of schit model run you're sad you wasted thirty seconds with... The run lands on white and you get four 3-5er's and an ice-storm. Lot's of cold lurking either near by ...occasionally swiping through - also ..variant in timing and magnitude depending on which model and the model's cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 The Euro was real cold through day 10. Even the warm up next monday and tuesday is seasonable to slightly above average. Pretty active as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 That's why it's foolish to get all upset at a model depiction that shows boring or what have you in this set up...it'll change 6-12 hours later, as today is evidence of. What looked to be boring yesterday...now has a small event tonight that wasn't there yesterday...and who knows what Friday or Monday may bring. Sit tight and let this play out before throwing in towels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherexpert Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 EPS looks back and forth but the euro looks favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Weatherexpert said: EPS looks back and forth but the euro looks favorable. What?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherexpert Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Weatherexpert said: EPS looks back and forth but the euro looks favorable. GFS* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherexpert Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: What?? typo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 End of Euro run is about as classic an overrunning setup as it gets with more in the pipeline. Verbatim everyone goes into Christmas eve with snow OTG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherexpert Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Euro may be veering towards the warmer side, but I think the patterns we've been seeing the past week show that not all hope is lost, it is early to tell. Call me crazy but living in Vermont I can feel it when winter is here, and winter has arrived. Don't lose all hope just because a few runs seem to be going off course. At least up North snowfall is going to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Liquid over snow is not good. Period. I should not have to defend that. Have you not tried maple syrup on snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Maybe more like snow to ridiculous ice on Xmas/Xmas night. GFS "celebrates" Jan. 1998 20th anniversary about 2 weeks early? With a repeat? No thanks, glad it's way way out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 EPS looks good with the epo in LR but folds it over a tad into a west coast trough, though not as deep as OP. SE ridge shows up but not overpowering. We can work with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 hour ago, klw said: Have you not tried maple syrup on snow? Did that in canada alot as a kid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: EPS looks good with the epo in LR but folds it over a tad into a west coast trough, though not as deep as OP. SE ridge shows up but not overpowering. We can work with this. a little SE ridge is a good thing. close by=good. over our fannies=bad. very bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 So how much are we talking for the Fri nite and Sunday night events? Both 1-3”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Grinch gone 18z. Snowy 12/23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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