Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,619
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    RyRyB
    Newest Member
    RyRyB
    Joined

Late autumn, early winter model mayhem

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Goes from raining for days to snow and ice in o e run....I guess we could just flip a coin at this point.

This is what you get with a huge EPO ridge but little Atlantic blocking and not really couple with big PNA ridge inland out west....you kind of are at the mercy of some random shortwave interaction in the flow more than you normally would be. It's an overall cold look for us, but you can still get cutters. But this run shows you the upside. We could get hit with multiple events. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is what you get with a huge EPO ridge but little Atlantic blocking and not really couple with big PNA ridge inland out west....you kind of are at the mercy of some random shortwave interaction in the flow more than you normally would be. It's an overall cold look for us, but you can still get cutters. But this run shows you the upside. We could get hit with multiple events. 

Are we more vulnerable to being on the wrong side than we were in 1994, and why?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Spanks45

Spanks45

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is what you get with a huge EPO ridge but little Atlantic blocking and not really couple with big PNA ridge inland out west....you kind of are at the mercy of some random shortwave interaction in the flow more than you normally would be. It's an overall cold look for us, but you can still get cutters. But this run shows you the upside. We could get hit with multiple events. 

After the past 2 years, it's nice to have the cold near by...it will at least make things interesting, even if we are on the wrong side of things from time to time. The kind of cold nearby with the SE ridge flexing makes me wonder if there ends up being ice or sleet storm incoming at some point before the new year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Grinch turns snowy this run.

Twas the night before Christmas, when all thro' the house
Not a weenie was stirring, not even a mouse;
The sleds were stored  by the chimney with care,
In hopes that St Kocin soon would be there;
KGAY and DIT were nestled all snug in their beds,
While visions of KUs danced in their heads

And NoPoles in her 'kerchief, and Fella in his cap,

Had just settled their brains for a long winter's nap
When out in the yard there arose such a clatter,
Fella sprang from the bed to see what was the matter.
Away to the window  Fella flew like a flash,
Tore open the blinds , and threw up the sash.
The moon on the breast of the new fallen snow,
Gave the luster of mid-day to objects below;
When, what to his wondering eyes should appear,
But a four wheeler , and 8 weenies so dear
With a smiling  old driver, so lively and tall,
He knew in a moment it must be St. Paul

More rapid than eagles his weenies they came,
And he whistled, and shouted, and call'd them by name:
"Now! James, now! Scooter, now! Will and  Hippy,
"On! TBlizxy, on! Bobbalouie, on! Dendrite and Powder;

With a wink of his eye and a twist of his head
Soon gave Fella to know he had nothing to dread.
He spoke not a word, but went straight to his work,
The snow fell as heavy as it could ever fall; then he turn'd with a jerk,
And laying his finger aside of his nose
And giving a nod, from the blizzard he rose.
He sprung to his 4 wheeler, to his team gave a whistle,
And away they all flew, like the down of a thistle:
But  he heard him exclaim, ere he drove out of sight‍—‌

A White Christmas to all, and to all a good night.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is what you get with a huge EPO ridge but little Atlantic blocking and not really couple with big PNA ridge inland out west....you kind of are at the mercy of some random shortwave interaction in the flow more than you normally would be. It's an overall cold look for us, but you can still get cutters. But this run shows you the upside. We could get hit with multiple events. 

This run had a -34C PV over Minnesota, LOL. Big changes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Are we more vulnerable to being on the wrong side than we were in 1994, and why?

I mean...not really IMHO. It depends when in 1994 you are talking about. This looks a bit like the early feb 94 pattern at least in that D9-12 range. Those storms could have cut but they didn't. Sometimes it is just pure luck as much as we want to assign specific larger scale reasons. Yeah, we get the ingredients in place wth the frigid Canada and northern tier with the EPO dump...but once we all agree that it sets the table, the rest is up to smaller scale nuances that are not really predictable at time leads greater than 6-7 days. You def risk cutters when you bend the flow back SW like that...but often we get away with it at our latitude. We got away with it in 1994, we got away with it in December 2008. We didn't get away with it at times in January 2014. 

The EPS is starting to show much strength in the cold press from the north later next week...so it's starting to look more overrunnish versus cutter. Hopefully that continues.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That’s the take home.  We have a ton of Canadian cold to tap but no nao may mean we’re on the wrong side sometimes.  We could also be lucky and time it right each time.  The point is we’ll have our chances.

If I had to guess, we may run the risk of cutters prior to Christmas, but have the risk reduced after. That seems to be the model consensus. Note I said risk. Like Will said..it could easily just be overrunning. However, it seems like models somewhat squash the ridge a bit after Christmas. Of course that is pretty far out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SJonesWX

SJonesWX

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If I had to guess, we may run the risk of cutters prior to Christmas, but have the risk reduced after. That seems to be the model consensus. Note I said risk. Like Will said..it could easily just be overrunning. However, it seems like models somewhat squash the ridge a bit after Christmas. Of course that is pretty far out.

DIT: i hope you enjoy the cuttters that you want and are forecasting 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SJonesWX

SJonesWX

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Well on a high level, I would say the risk is greater before Christmas vs after. It is what it is. Just hope it's more overruning.

i am on board with you, and my gut feeling (no scientific rationale) is that SNE is right on the line, but NNE will do much better in that time period.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

It seems to me that we are having a normal progression of snow pack being laid down from north to south.  Been frustrating to see SNE exceeding climo to a greater % than here for several times in recent years.  I want mine too.  So far I've had about a foot and there is a good pack which will likely be around til at least March.  I think it will help in borderline events in the next couple of weeks, although in a big cutter nothing can save any of us.  An occasional cutter is good though for the pack queens like me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...