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Late autumn, early winter model mayhem


Typhoon Tip

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12 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

As reliable as anafrontal snow.

 

I just took a glance at the 18z GFS--only thing I've looked at in the last few days that wasn't focused on today.  Man, what a crappy run.  Grinch before and after Christmas.  

The cold dump that was supposed to be east ended up in the plains. Do the math 

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I don't get it anyone see the latest CPC 6-10 and 11-15 day?. They seem to be going towards below normal temperatures for Boston north. I thought the models were showing the southeast ridge flexing too much allowing a lot of warmth?. There is also the MJO heading into phase 7-8 which would throw a big wrench into the southeast flexing too much?. 

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Clipper should bring light snow to the MA Pike on Thursday morning, festive nothing much, the weekend storm continues to baffle me on the models.  The 00z tonight although not reliable stage yet shows a favorable Upper level jet phasing between the streams, but the trough stays rather positive and flattens the southern stream disturbance before anything gets going.  So I just answered my own question, the pattern in the upper levels isn't favorable even the jet streaks combine with one another but the overall shape of the trough stays in a positive tilt, so there is nothing going on

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20 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Clipper should bring light snow to the MA Pike on Thursday morning, festive nothing much, the weekend storm continues to baffle me on the models.  The 00z tonight although not reliable stage yet shows a favorable Upper level jet phasing between the streams, but the trough stays rather positive and flattens the southern stream disturbance before anything gets going.  So I just answered my own question, the pattern in the upper levels isn't favorable even the jet streaks combine with one another but the overall shape of the trough stays in a positive tilt, so there is nothing going on

 Wow,  that must've been a bad run!  No talk of vortmax phasing et Al .

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

970mb blizzards work out more often over the eastern half of sne.

Link? Lol. Windex happens a couple times a year on average  just localized but it's a flavor enjoyed when it does. Brief intense events are natures gravy over the potatoes. Just adds to the flavor for some. Some could careless some like it. 

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14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Link? Lol. Windex happens a couple times a year on average  just localized but it's a flavor enjoyed when it does. Brief intense events are natures gravy over the potatoes. Just adds to the flavor for some. Some could careless some like it. 

Link me to the verification of your hypothesis.

I remember far more blizzards than I do significant accumulations from snow squalls in this region.

Its a fact that the downslope flow off of the higher terrain of the ORH hills usually saps the squalls of their original vigor.

Eastern New England is geographically predisposed to blizzards because it jettisons east into the atlantic.

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27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Link me to the verification of your hypothesis.

I remember far more blizzards than I do significant accumulations from snow squalls in this region.

Its a fact that the downslope flow off of the higher terrain of the ORH hills usually saps the squalls of their original vigor.

Eastern New England is geographically predisposed to blizzards because it jettisons east into the atlantic.

I agree you are in a terrible spot for squalls, was speaking in general terms to the entire forum. Many of us get opportunities each winter. Watching them approach like a summertime squall is always cool. Night time when the Arctic howls whistling  through the trees are suddenly damped out by intense snowfall is a joy in a rural forested environment. Although few chances exist and many fail the ones that do are memorable not forgettable 

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree that the few that work out are memorable...partly because they usually don't lol.

It is impressive, though.

All of eastern sne is in a terrible spot.

Those long LES  streamers that traverse a 3 state region are also one of my favorites. They are rare but peeps in SW Ct ORH county and NECT will sometimes be surprised at the intensity of a rotting LES. Back in 15 when a mouse fart made it snow we had one the originated off of Lake Michigan crossed and reinvigorated on Ontario and dropped 2.5 inches with a w/e of 80 to 1 of Cotton on top of 3 feet of snow making for perhaps the most surreal cartoonish scene I have witnessed. I  waited a generation for it.

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