Late autumn, early winter model mayhem

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Was That what it was referred to lol

Of course, there is a whole thread dedicated to that

[dryslot]

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Im just hoping modeling this year doesn't show 1.5 QPF, for a 7 hour storm that ends up lasting 4.5 hrs and forecasts call for 10-15".

[Typhoon Tip]

What's interesting about that Sunday night time frame is .... trying to figure out if that's the same traceable mechanics the models were honing in on several days ago, perhaps just re-emerging as a system of interest .. Or, is it coincidentally a new one merely occupying a similar spatial-temporality. The answer is the latter ... 

The original has been progressive, run to run, trending/correcting east, also, weaker... As of the overnight runs, the original idea is tucked very deeply into the west Atlantic/SE of NS, having escaped harmlessly seaward. BUT, it stalls there ... That's always been the case, that stall ... then, this Sunday night system since has been steadily getting more coherent in the GFS operational; now, catches up eventually... and the two then retrograded as a slowly phasing gyre while the overarching -NAO ridge got built over top. 

It's a mess this morning though.  The Euro operational really has almost all but entirely abandoned any -NAO for the first 10 days of December.  Perhaps the writing was on the wall with that particular guidance source ?  It began toying with the idea of doing so a few cycles back -- haven't seen the EPS. Luckily for us winter enthusiasts .. the Euro is a big piece of sh!t (and I'm not just saying that out of convenience to cause) beyond ..oh day 5 - at which time(s) it gets just as erratic as the best court gestures out there.  It's troubling though ...the EPS yesterday did back down on that so... maybe - 

But if all that's going to take place (and by D9 the Euro and GFS have almost zippo semblance of one another over the Maritimes at this point), then the GFS needs to do a whole-scale change (and vice versa...) 

So anyway ... the end result (so far) of all this is that the Sunday night's system is really just the GFS putting the emphasis on the 2nd system in that whole bundle of events ...  contrasting, the Euro can't wait to abandon everything and lieu of some other entirely new paradigm... One that really looks like a highly sloped +PNA/neutral or even +NAO.   Just don't say there was no warning of that happening on the latter.  

[codfishsnowman]

Thursday/Friday rain event  lost steam quick, maybe won't have to put the leaf barrels back in the garage

[Typhoon Tip]

As an after thought ....  I remember mentioning a couple days ago that the models looked as though they were 'stretching' the field a bit too liberally ...from the WC to the EC.  Seeing the GFS trying to shorten that long wave ...thus allowing a slightly earlier digging with that Sunday night system may also be some of that correction as the time nears - 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

As an after thought ....  I remember mentioning a couple days ago that the models looked as though they were 'stretching' the field a bit too liberally ...from the WC to the EC.  Seeing the GFS trying to shorten that long wave ...thus allowing a slightly earlier digging with that Sunday night system may also be some of that correction as the time nears - 

A lot of guidance is amplifying that shortwave quickly as it approaches the coast....it is just that most guidance does it a bit too late. The flow is progressive as has already been mentioned so it makes sense it probably wouldn't be a siggy event...but sometimes, you can still pull off a little quick hitter in that setup, or even an inverted trough that is not as narrow-hitting as a norlun. In these pre-pattern shift doldrums, something to keep half an eye on.

[CT Rain]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

A lot of guidance is amplifying that shortwave quickly as it approaches the coast....it is just that most guidance does it a bit too late. The flow is progressive as has already been mentioned so it makes sense it probably wouldn't be a siggy event...but sometimes, you can still pull off a little quick hitter in that setup, or even an inverted trough that is not as narrow-hitting as a norlun. In these pre-pattern shift doldrums, something to keep half an eye on.

Good post, Will. Not much room to amplify but certainly an amplifying shortwave diving in deserves to be watched. 

[WintersComing]

Also seems like temps would be marginal at best during Sun-Mon time frame.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, WintersComing said:

Also seems like temps would be marginal at best during Sun-Mon time frame.

Would be more interior deal if it happened , which it won’t 

[40/70 Benchmark]

The new intern at work's name is Rain....I wanted to boot her from the office instantly.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I wish the Sunday event didn't exist so the focus would remain long term.

[WxBlue]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wish the Sunday event didn't exist so the focus would remain long term.

I feel the opposite. This zonal pattern is making me bored and I'm ready to be tracking something credible inside 72 hours.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

I feel the opposite. This zonal pattern is making me bored and I'm ready to be tracking something credible inside 72 hours.

This is one of those "elephant in the room" threats....everyone carries on discussing it, but knows nothing is going to happen.

Entirely understandable and I'm sure the majority feel as you do, but I'd rather fantasize about a long term pattern that could actually deliver.

[WintersComing]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is one of those "elephant in the room" threats....everyone carries on discussing it, but knows nothing is going to happen.

Entirely understandable and I'm sure the majority feel as you do, but I'd rather fantasize about a long term pattern that could actually deliver.

Seems as though the LR pattern is "somewhat" set to deliver....whether it does or not seems to be the baby elephant in the room

[WxBlue]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is one of those "elephant in the room" threats....everyone carries on discussing it, but knows nothing is going to happen.

Entirely understandable and I'm sure the majority feel as you do, but I'd rather fantasize about a long term pattern that could actually deliver.

That's understandable! I honestly don't see much from December 4th threat (for SNE and CNE) with everything that's sliding through lately, but as others noted, it's something to keep an eye on. 

 

[SJonesWX]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The new intern at work's name is Rain....I wanted to boot her from the office instantly.

is her first name Cold?

[ORH_wxman]

We prob get about 3 or 4 inverted trough events per year. They are usually nuisance crap events and once you hit January and February you basically have little interest in a 1.3" snow event. But this early it is a little more intriguing. 

[dryslot]

Its one of those type of deals that gets some folks on the board for the season so we don't toss.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Seems as though the LR pattern is "somewhat" set to deliver....whether it does or not seems to be the baby elephant in the room

Hell, yea...we could end up cold and dry.

But I think most would agree that our ceiling then is a bit higher.

Again...not criticizing anyone....all the posts have been realistic.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

is her first name Cold?

I bet she was born in 1984.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We prob get about 3 or 4 inverted trough events per year. They are usually nuisance crap events and once you hit January and February you basically have little interest in a 1.3" snow event. But this early it is a little more intriguing. 

True.

[WintersComing]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hell, yea...we could end up cold and dry.

But I think most would agree that our ceiling then is a bit higher.

Again...not criticizing anyone....all the posts have been realistic.

Table is set.  Mother Nature just needs to bring us some damn food to eat.  We're all hungry lol

[dryslot]

Not even a flake on the 12z GFS for sun-mon, Fast flat flow and south OTS.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

Good post, Will. Not much room to amplify but certainly an amplifying shortwave diving in deserves to be watched. 

fwiw ...about 5 members have more than a mere semblance of a NJ model type detonation ...and as Will's noted, some have Norlun signatures there too.  

buy hey folks, we just want homages to the season ... it's early.  

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Not even a flake on the 12z GFS for sun-mon, Fast flat flow and south OTS.

that means it's definitely happening ...   we're tracking feasibility in the GFS, so ... getting closing, then pulling the trigger, then having an epic blizzard is par for the course with that particular guidance. 

j/k, ...but seriously, hope you were not expecting much?  we've really just been covering what's there in a general dearth of things to follow...  It's not 0 is all ...You're tone is invisible, but your word choice and cadence sounds like you're bummed. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Not even a flake on the 12z GFS for sun-mon, Fast flat flow and south OTS.

 But there is an elephant modeled..

#forgettable

[dryslot]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

that means it's definitely happening ...   we're tracking feasibility in the GFS, so ... getting closing, then pulling the trigger, then having an epic blizzard is par for the course with that particular guidance. 

j/k, ...but seriously, hope you were not expecting much?  we've really just been covering what's there in a general dearth of things to follow...  It's not 0 is all ...You're tone is invisible, but your word choice and cadence sounds like you're bummed. 

 

lol, Just reading what that run showed, Maybe i would be bummed if it was 12/10 and the first threat in a better pattern just whiffed.........lol

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

lol, Just reading what that run showed, Maybe i would be bummed if it was 12/10 and the first threat in a better pattern just whiffed.........lol

oh i hear ya...  

my dream winter is getting things bangin' a week after halloween and have it rip until march 1 ...  then, early summer.. 

obviously ... we have our dreams    but, even december 10 ... if I have to be objective about winters here since the mid 1980s ... i can count on one hand the number of truly white xmass's   i mean, irving berlin sold us a bid of goods during the crone hay-day of mid 20th century and ever since since we've had this idea of candy-cane icicles and snow globe window scenes.  

the best song for xmass?  probably ...  "can't always get what you want" by the rollin' stones ...  maybe if we recoup a few snow squalls and/or get lucky Sunday night, we'll get what we need.

[dryslot]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

oh i hear ya...  

my dream winter is getting things bangin' a week after halloween and have rip until march 1 ...  then, early summer.. 

obviously ... we have our dreams    but, even december 10 ... if I have to be objective about winters here since the mid 1980s ... i can count on one hand the number of truly white xmass's   i mean, irving berlin sold us a bid of goods during the crone hay-day of mid 20th century and ever since since we've had this idea of candy-cane icicles and snow globe window scenes.  

the best song for xmass?  probably ...  "can't always get what you want" by the rollin' stones ...  maybe if we recoup a few snow squalls and/or get lucky Sunday night, we'll get what we need.

Avg Nov snow up here is 3" so the expectations are quite low for anything of a siggy nature, But once Dec rolls around, Those avgs go up considerably to just over 13" so my expectations will become elevated.