December 2017 Long Range Disco

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Don't bother mitch. Snowman has a multi year resume of quicky pointing out anything and everything that shows no snow and warmth. And it's totally disingenuous for him to say that we latch onto cold. We have massive discussions when we're in trouble here. Our sub is about as balanced as it comes. Of course we get excited when things look good. It's why we're all here. But to say we don' acknowledge when it's crap is a steaming pile of crap.

I just got back from fighting 280 miles of i95 and I must say that things look unusually excellent right now. We're going to be tracking something legit in the mid range by next weekend. Might not be a big storm but accum snow somewhere on the east coast is getting close to a lock. Nao blocks like the MA and SE too. 

I know his M.O., but I don't mind an occasional discussion with him or anyone else that wants to melt my snow.  Lol

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Before you pop the corks on the champagne, remember back at the end of October when all the ensembles were showing November to be a huge torch? How did that work out? I wouldn’t be celebrating the long range ensembles right now....

Thank you again for educating us. Our forum would be lost without your occasional insight. 

[psuhoffman]

58 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Don't bother mitch. Snowman has a multi year resume of quicky pointing out anything and everything that shows no snow and warmth. And it's totally disingenuous for him to say that we latch onto cold. We have massive discussions when we're in trouble here. Our sub is about as balanced as it comes. Of course we get excited when things look good. It's why we're all here. But to say we don' acknowledge when it's crap is a steaming pile of crap.

I just got back from fighting 280 miles of i95 and I must say that things look unusually excellent right now. We're going to be tracking something legit in the mid range by next weekend. Might not be a big storm but accum snow somewhere on the east coast is getting close to a lock. Nao blocks like the MA and SE too. 

I wonder does he think he fools anyone with his act. He is never around when we're getting snow. The blizzard in 2016 not a peep all week. Then later that winter when threats are falling apart at the last minute he is all over the thread letting us know it's not gonna snow. When it looks warm he has to let us know and when it looks cold we're fools to believe long range guidance. He is knowledgeable enough that his BS is often hidden beneath layers of decent analysis but his bias is in his selection. He only ever points out things that favor warmth.  He is useless because even if it was going to be cold and snow he wouldn't say it. 

On topic things look great and continue to get better as we get closer. We all know our ability to fail so no one is celebrating yet but things look as good as we could hope now and the timing if we want a cold snowy holiday period is about perfect. That's the truly disingenuous part of his crap. It's not one model run. This is a long string of evidence that the pattern is evolving this way. It's been a slow setup that we have been following for weeks and now just as it's becoming more clear this is headed where we want he shows up to be the wet blanket.  As if we need his wisdom in here. 

[Kmlwx]

Well Agung is erupting

 

[eurojosh]

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Well Agung is erupting

 

 

[Rtd208]

In Larry Cosgrove's weekly newsletter he does acknowledge the models showing a colder pattern beginning the 2nd week of December but does have concerns that the warm shelf and gulf stream waters could limit wintry weather chances along the eastern seaboard with precipitation being more wet then white. He also has some concerns that the last 2 weeks of December could slide back to a semi zonal flow as well. He is more or less still on the train that the mid west and great lakes will be the big winners this winter which would continue to support his winter outlook agenda. Have to see how things continue to evolve as we head into December but I am liking how things are evolving so far especially from week 2 of December forward.

[showmethesnow]

Hard not to like the overnight run of the EPS for the extended (day 11-15). The -NAO is coming in stronger and more westerly based earlier in the period. And the overall blocking evolution doesn't get much better as it makes an attempt to bridge over top of us through northern Canada. Troughing and strong low pressure anomalies are located roughly through the 50/50 region as the pv feature and associated trough are diving into the Midwest. The response from the pv feature/trough because of the 50/50 is to see much better dig with that feature as well as we are now seeing an attempt to pinch off a piece of the pv in a favorable position over top of the lakes. We are also seeing the cold anomalies, which are moving eastward into our region, coming in quicker and a good bit stronger. It looks as if we are seeing a quicker progression (day or so) of the favorable window setting up and the overall look is somewhat suggestive of low pressure riding up from the south into the eastern portion of the US earlier in the period. About the only thing I might have some issue with, and I am really nitpicking here, is that the trough that sets up during this time period may be just a smidgen to the west of where I would like to see it.

I really like what I see on the EPS at this time but again we are talking 11+ days out so nothing is set in stone.

 

[CAPE]

56 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Hard not to like the overnight run of the EPS for the extended (day 11-15). The -NAO is coming in stronger and more westerly based earlier in the period. And the overall blocking evolution doesn't get much better as it makes an attempt to bridge over top of us through northern Canada. Troughing and strong low pressure anomalies are located roughly through the 50/50 region as the pv feature and associated trough are diving into the Midwest. The response from the pv feature/trough because of the 50/50 is to see much better dig with that feature as well as we are now seeing an attempt to pinch off a piece of the pv in a favorable position over top of the lakes. We are also seeing the cold anomalies, which are moving eastward into our region, coming in quicker and a good bit stronger. It looks as if we are seeing a quicker progression (day or so) of the favorable window setting up and the overall look is somewhat suggestive of low pressure riding up from the south into the eastern portion of the US earlier in the period. About the only thing I might have some issue with, and I am really nitpicking here, is that the trough that sets up during this time period may be just a smidgen to the west of where I would like to see it.

I really like what I see on the EPS at this time but again we are talking 11+ days out so nothing is set in stone.

 

EPS has been a thing of beauty lately. The HL setup is just gorgeous. Just a nitpick at this point, but looks like it could be dry overall though. Even in the locations where you know it would be cold enough for snow much of the time, like Canaan, the snow mean is pretty unimpressive. Plenty of time for that to change as we get closer. The beginning of the period of interest is still 10+ days away.

[showmethesnow]

Though decent the look on the overnight run of the GEFS doesn't hold a candle to the EPS in the longer range (day 11+). The blocking (-NAO) is more centrally/easterly located vs. the EPS and we do see the suggestion of a 50/50 earlier in the period. But with the more easterly placement of the blocking we are seeing a corresponding response from the pv/trough diving down into the Midwest which is to be shallower and more easterly. Overall the look would most likely favor to our Northeast during this window. But the GEFS, and the EPS to a lesser extent, have been somewhat erratic with the strength and the placement of the blocking so solutions we see over the coming days will vary.

At this point indications are fairly strong that we will see good blocking in the NAO region as well as a drop southeastward of the pv and associated trough in response to this blocking. Now if in fact this is the case (verifies) the question then becomes what would present the best case scenario for our region for which looks to be an extended window of opportunity (blocking setting up would most likely be stable so we would be talking roughly day 11 through day 15/16 if not beyond). No surprise here, a western based -NAO with a 50/50 (at least initially) to help set up the trough that will be established in the east. Now we could get by without a 50/50 but the -NAO would have to be strongly west based for our needs. As far as a easterly based -NAO without a 50/50? We would most likely be SOL.

Now as @C.A.P.E. just mentioned, as well as have others previously, the look is suggestive of a dry look for the east which very well may be the case. But I take heart in the fact I see a couple of things that may argue otherwise. First off, indications are probably 50/50 that we see a storm somewhere from the Midwest to the east opening up the window of potential (roughly day 11-12), with odds probably favoring it riding up from the south. This is probably low end odds for snow chances at this point for our region (though a little back end action would not be surprising). Trough will still be getting established and there is a good deal of warmth that will need to be scoured out as well. But good timing and track (temps allowing) can not be ruled out so there is always that possibility.  Now what interests me for the window extending beyond that possible initial storm is that we are seeing a southern jet through this period, riding up from off Baja to off the VA/NC coast which needless to say is a favorable position of our region. Throw in the fact we are also seeing a polar jet dropping down into the central portion of the US converging with the southern jet through this time period and you can't help but consider the possibilities.

Now this is worth repeating once again since it seems so many keep forgetting. This commentary involves what is shown on the extended at this time on both the EPS and the GEFS. THIS IS NOT SET IN STONE!!! The models are notorious for showing a good/great pattern for days on end only to wipe it out in a couple of runs in the mid or even short range. So if you can't accept that the model projections in the extended can and will change then maybe long range tracking is not for you.

[WxUSAF]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/934760792465035265

 

Edit...not sure why it's not embedding.  Here's the tweet:

Big time high latitude blocking (-AO/-NAO) setting up during 2nd week of December via the EPS. This is the pattern you want to generate cold Winter temperatures and storms across the eastern two thirds of the nation.

 

[frd]

Following on the progression from Isotherm and Benchmark and the views they have regarding help from the strat as we move into December it appears the models do see the potential for further disruptions of the PV. Judah made a post this morning about the lastest GFS wave flux.  Seems like the QBO maybe be of some help here, along with some posts made here regarding two seperate mechanisms taking aim at the PV.   

 

[frd]

Jason is very conservative and when he does eventually honk, which I hope he does, then to me it will be a clear signal we have a big time PV event on the horizon , whether it is a major disruption or a SSWE.

 

 

 

[usedtobe]

I'm kind of bored so I thought I'd look at the long range forecasts from the models. The long range ensemble mean pattern gets interesting towards December 8th give or take a few days. A big caveat is needed since ensemble mean forecasts aren't very accurate or skillful at such long time ranges so take this post more as a hope for a little winter than a forecast. If the ensembles mean guidance from both the GEFS and European Centers are correct (a big if), a wintry pattern may evolve over the eastern two thirds of the country towards the second week of December.

Below I've attached both the GEFS ensemble mean product out in fantasy land courtesy of StormVista. The European shows the same basic pattern.  Note the big upper level ridge over Alaska (lots of red). Such a feature helps steer cold air southward from Canada into the U.S. Also note the red across Greenland indicated a negative NAO and AO would be in play if the models are right. The pattern of a big ridge over Alaska and a block over Greenland was present in 3 of the 4 La Nina winters that produced over 20 inches of snow at DCA and was present in the snowiest La Nina (1995-1996). The 4th 20 inch or greater winter had the big Alaska ridge but no blocking over Greenland.  Those 3 years that pattern was present in the mean through the winter months and a negative NAO can sometimes be ephemeral so there is no guarantee that the negative NAO would last more than a couple of weeks. Anyway, something to watch for going forward. May not pan out but in winter when you're bored it's fun to fantasize.. ,

[isohume]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Now this is worth repeating once again since it seems so many keep forgetting. This commentary involves what is shown on the extended at this time on both the EPS and the GEFS. THIS IS NOT SET IN STONE!!! The models are notorious for showing a good/great pattern for days on end only to wipe it out in a couple of runs in the mid or even short range. So if you can't accept that the model projections in the extended can and will change then maybe long range tracking is not for you.

This is the most reasonable statement I've read in years. 

[CAPE]

49 minutes ago, isohume said:

This is the most reasonable statement I've read in years. 

It is obviously a correct statement. The majority of us are clearly aware of this however, and to his point, anyone who has been hanging around these forums and paying attention should be also.

[BristowWx]

The GEFS looks just perfect to my eyes.  Continues the theme of HL blocking, negative temp anomalies, and stability in that pattern.  Can’t ask for more unless I am reading it wrong.  Only looked at 500mb.  

[SnowLover22]

Am I missing something? This statement seems completely wrong.


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[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

Am I missing something? This statement seems completely wrong.


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Umm..how can I say this without sounding like a jerk. Consider the source?

[SnowLover22]

Umm..how can I say this without sounding like a jerk. Consider the source?

It’s fine. I will just remember to put him on ignore.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[CAPE]

43 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

The GEFS looks just perfect to my eyes.  Continues the theme of HL blocking, negative temp anomalies, and stability in that pattern.  Can’t ask for more unless I am reading it wrong.  Only looked at 500mb.  

You aren't reading it wrong, my friend. It is a little scary how good the advertised h5 pattern looks right now on all guidance. Key word is advertised. Lets hope the ground truth is close to what the models are teasing us with.

[Rtd208]

10 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

Am I missing something? This statement seems completely wrong.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Umm..how can I say this without sounding like a jerk. Consider the source?

You should see his post in the November thread of the NYC forum, even better.

[CAPE]

Just now, Rtd208 said:

 

You should see his post in the November thread of the NYC forum, even better.

I am not one to be critical of anyone who posts in these forums in general, but the "read more, post less" moniker definitely applies in his case.

[Rtd208]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I am not one to be critical of anyone who posts in these forums in general, but the "read more, post less" moniker definitely applies in his case.

IMO, he just does it even now and then to stir the pot. 

[NorthArlington101]

Take it for what it's worth...

 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Take it for what it's worth...

Sure. Why not

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Sure. Why not

That is pretty close to the period I like. The 11th through the 15th.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That is pretty close to the period I like. The 11th through the 15th.

Nah, it'll get delayed or miss us, then the 17th-21st becomes the period to watch. 

[CAPE]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Nah, it'll get delayed or miss us, then the 17th-21st becomes the period to watch. 

Yeah, the models(and us) tend to rush these pattern changes. You might be right. I think any storm prior to the 10th is likely to take an unfavorable track for our area in general. Thus my call for the week of the 11th. Might be later though, or not at all  .

We always require some amount of luck in our region.

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah, the models(and us) tend to rush these pattern changes. You might be right. I think any storm prior to the 10th is likely to take an unfavorable track for our area in general. Thus my call for the week of the 11th. Might be later though, or not at all  .

We always require some amount of luck in our region.

The other thing that is true, though not to the extent nor with the intent that snowman19 or others of his ilk have mentioned,  is that Canada will have warmed some (relative to normal) over the next 10 days. So I think we'll need a few days after the 7th to "feel" the change that high latitude blocking will cause. 

[CAPE]

Per the 12z EPS, looks like the core of the h5 -height anomalies, and the 850t anomalies, are moving eastward over the east coast towards day 15. So the trough should be well positioned for the week of the 11th.

So my call looks pretty good, eh Mitch?