frd Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 I always get extra confidence if Allen is posting on social media. A great met for sure, love his updates and his maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I haven't had the time to do any deep analysis lately but everything I see gets my approval. December could be fun for a change. Its hard not to get a little excited. The 3 global ens are pretty locked in, run after run. And it appears the pattern progression is a bit faster now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 That Day 10 EURO OP map would be awesome if true....We have a Rex Block formed out West which would solidify a monster +PNA, meanwhile we have blocking forming. December 10-20th could be cooking as others have mentioned. Hopefully it continues to show this. Interested @ what the Pros think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: That Day 10 EURO OP map would be awesome if true....We have a Rex Block formed out West which would solidify a monster +PNA, meanwhile we have blocking forming. December 10-20th could be cooking as others have mentioned. Hopefully it continues to show this. Interested @ what the Pros think Again, as Bluewave stated earlier today in the NY thread, seeing the Euro's + PNA forecast ahead in time and for the month of December as well is not that far fetched based on its ( the ECM's ) month ahead skill with this forecast metric. It does very well forecasting the PNA according to Bluewave and his research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Can't believe nobody posted the op Euro . What a fun storm verbatim. Both Gfs and euro ops have a storm now day 6/7 Yeah its a period to watch for something other than sunny, mild, boring weather lol. Nice chilly rainstorm verbatim. Probably some decent snows way out in the highlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Pretty nice look heading into the week of the 11th.. Remember how I said weeks ago I was really excited about what I was seeing in the LR? This is what I was talking about. Just had to get there. Examining through the Euro and GFS gives me some really good feelings for next month. I'm with you on mid-December for first legit threat. A lot of the indices will be trending favorable for our area and global's are really establishing that block over Greenland. Get the pattern to slow up a bit and leaves room for amplification upstream. I'd probably want the ridge axis out west to be a bit more to the east, but it'll certainly do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 24 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Can't believe nobody posted the op Euro . What a fun storm verbatim. Pretty nice looking at 500mb as well. Both Gfs and euro ops have a storm now day 6/7. Sometimes we get so busy looking way out in time that we forget to just "look out the window" Not with a giant HP to the NE, young chap....This could be a nice rain nor'easter, but nothing more. However, this storm does help pave the way potentially for blocking forming. The old saying was that you needed a lakers cutter or a strong storm to help develop a block & this could very well be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 Verbatim .. Next Friday, Euro gives us ~1.3" of rain with temperatures in the upper 40s. Heavy rain to heavy snow scenario in play for interior northern New England Isn't that old saying mostly useful in a non-blocking pattern, where you desperately hope the cutter sets up a transient block. Isn't the storm of interest a bit too far east to set up a useful block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Verbatim .. Next Friday, Euro gives us ~1.3" of rain with temperatures in the upper 40s. Heavy rain to heavy snow scenario in play for interior northern New England Isn't that old saying mostly useful in a non-blocking pattern, where you desperately hope the cutter sets up a transient block. Isn't the storm of interest a bit too far east to set up a useful block? Yes. That concept is a bit simplistic when a blocky pattern is already established. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 9 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Verbatim .. Next Friday, Euro gives us ~1.3" of rain with temperatures in the upper 40s. Heavy rain to heavy snow scenario in play for interior northern New England Isn't that old saying mostly useful in a non-blocking pattern, where you desperately hope the cutter sets up a transient block. Isn't the storm of interest a bit too far east to set up a useful block? We already have plenty of ridging to the north in Canada. This storm can act to strengthen the 40/40 low which sits off of New Foundland and pumps heights to the north in Greenland. It'll do for our purposes running up the coast and then merging with the upper trough at or around the aforementioned 40/40 location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Pretty nice look heading into the week of the 11th.. I'll just leave this here...to be drooled over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: I'll just leave this here...to be drooled over. Okay. This is more like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 EPS looks just beautiful! Seems like ens have jumped the transition forward a day. SE Ridge taking a beating by D11 and by D12 it's gone....Steady as she goes so far with today's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I'll just leave this here...to be drooled over. Snowman19 likes this post......to be deleted. Lol You can see on day 10 off Tropical Tidbits that things are getting ready to look sweet with the deep trough over Japan, ridging strengthening over Alaska, and the pesky trough in the SW ready to get booted because of the ridging to its north. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017112512&fh=240 I feel like we've waited half a lifetime for that ensemble map you posted. Let's cross our fingers it produces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 Assuming the pattern that the models show for mid December actually happen, is this the type of pattern that COULD produce a HECS or at least make a storm like that more likely?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: Snowman19 likes this post......to be deleted. Lol You can see on day 10 off Tropical Tidbits That things are getting ready to look sweet with the deep trough over Japan, ridging strengthening over Alaska, and the pesky trough in the SW ready to get booted because of the ridging to its north. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017112512&fh=240 I feel like we've waited half a lifetime for that ensemble map you posted. Let's cross our fingers it produces. I have noticed the Japan trough. I thought of you. I have been meaning to mention that. And yeah maybe I am jumping the gun- and perhaps it's partly due the fact that we are officially in a Nina- but I am beginning to get that 2009 feeling.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: I have noticed the Japan trough. I thought of you. I have been meaning to mention that. And yeah maybe I am jumping the gun- and perhaps it's partly due the fact that we are officially in a Nina- but I am beginning to get that 2009 feeling.. Hard not to, but we should know better. Lol I'm just glad that we have had blpcking already thus season so it's reasonable to believe that it will happen. Of course, every model's ensemble suite showing it coming doesn't hurt either. The snow part we'll juat have to wait and see. I still like my dates of 12/17-21 for a snowstorm of some form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: Assuming the pattern that the models show for mid December actually happen, is this the type of pattern that COULD produce a HECS or at least make a storm like that more likely? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Baby steps my friend. Plus, not every storm will have the potential to be the big one. In fact, I'd rather not have that because a lot of times, those kind of storms can break up a present block. The pattern has a good chance to yield colder weather and the threat for flakes. At this stage of the game, I'd like to see some ground work (snow) laid across the country so we can have less moderating airmasses in the longer term and a better chance at sustained cold with attacking lows from the south as they get forced under the block. Overall, the setup is just about what you what to see this upcoming time of year. And as Bob Chill has said numerous times before, we will be fighting against climo a whole lot less beginning mid-Dec moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 43 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Snowman19 likes this post......to be deleted. Lol You can see on day 10 off Tropical Tidbits that things are getting ready to look sweet with the deep trough over Japan, ridging strengthening over Alaska, and the pesky trough in the SW ready to get booted because of the ridging to its north. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017112512&fh=240 I feel like we've waited half a lifetime for that ensemble map you posted. Let's cross our fingers it produces. That is just a wicked pattern. Triple blocking would leave open several opportunities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 CFS is actually getting a clue lol. December h5 pattern looks pretty nice now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Snowman19 likes this post......to be deleted. Lol You can see on day 10 off Tropical Tidbits that things are getting ready to look sweet with the deep trough over Japan, ridging strengthening over Alaska, and the pesky trough in the SW ready to get booted because of the ridging to its north. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017112512&fh=240 I feel like we've waited half a lifetime for that ensemble map you posted. Let's cross our fingers it produces. Before you pop the corks on the champagne, remember back at the end of October when all the ensembles were showing November to be a huge torch? How did that work out? I wouldn’t be celebrating the long range ensembles right now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 lol Like clockwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 Before you pop the corks on the champagne, remember back at the end of October when all the ensembles were showing November to be a huge torch? How did that work out? I wouldn’t be celebrating the long range ensembles right now....So what’s the deal? Is the reason why you act this way is because you just do not like snow.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 26 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Before you pop the corks on the champagne, remember back at the end of October when all the ensembles were showing November to be a huge torch? How did that work out? I wouldn’t be celebrating the long range ensembles right now.... You have the wrong guy. I was the one that said nobody knew for sure and was first on the cold/blocky train if memory serves me. It's all in fun. We in the MA know our default setting (before fossil fuels even) is generally snow starved, so we get gitty when it looks to be our turn. And it is looking like it's our turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: You have the wrong guy. I was the one that said nobody knew for sure and was first on the cold/blocky train if memory serves me. It's all in fun. We in the MA know our default setting (before fossil fuels even) is generally snow starved, so we get gitty when it looks to be our turn. And it is looking like it's our turn. Never said you were, but, as much as I get accused of latching onto warmth, others latch right on to cold runs and disgregard any warm guidance. It goes both ways, guidence isn’t always wrong when it shows long range cold or long range warmth. Let’s be honest, the warmth has been winning the last 3 winters, snowfall (which is very hard to predict and what the winter lovers want) on the other hand has been above average almost every year since 2000 but minus that, we are in an overall warm regime. The dry winter regime is long overdue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 850s look good next weekend. On 18z. Just saying they do. Surface is a inferno. I know it’s a long shot. But when I see good 850s I get a little excited. RA/SN mix? Why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 Follow up from Allen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2017 Share Posted November 25, 2017 24 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Never said you were, but, as much as I get accused of latching onto warmth, others latch right on to cold runs and disgregard any warm guidance. It goes both ways, guidence isn’t always wrong when it shows long range cold or long range warmth. Let’s be honest, the warmth has been winning the last 3 winters, snowfall (which is very hard to predict and what the winter lovers want) on the other hand has been above average almost every year since 2000 but minus that, we are in an overall warm regime. The dry winter regime is long overdue... It has been warm the last 2 winters, not 3, all the more reason to believe that the pendulum has swung to cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 CFS December https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017112500&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2017 Author Share Posted November 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It has been warm the last 2 winters, not 3, all the more reason to believe that the pendulum has swung to cold. Don't bother mitch. Snowman has a multi year resume of quicky pointing out anything and everything that shows no snow and warmth. And it's totally disingenuous for him to say that we latch onto cold. We have massive discussions when we're in trouble here. Our sub is about as balanced as it comes. Of course we get excited when things look good. It's why we're all here. But to say we don' acknowledge when it's crap is a steaming pile of crap. I just got back from fighting 280 miles of i95 and I must say that things look unusually excellent right now. We're going to be tracking something legit in the mid range by next weekend. Might not be a big storm but accum snow somewhere on the east coast is getting close to a lock. Nao blocks like the MA and SE too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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