December 2017 Long Range Disco

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

15 Days huh... Just like Thanksgiving weekend and the Sunday/Monday after Thanksgiving

It’s NOT happening?  

[Interstate]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

What exactly did you expect to happen this weekend?

Nothing... but a thread was made for the threat...lol

[BristowWx]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

What exactly did you expect to happen this weekend?

Intermittent light snow...highs in the low 30s..snow accumulation 1-3 inches...

[Amped]

Nice winter is 15 days away.

[Wonderdog]

 Good to see such  optimism for a pattern that's 2 weeks away. Kind of reminds me of the optimism we had in 2009 / 2010. Of course, not saying it's the same type of pattern but there seems to be a high level of certainty in the last day or two by some of our best posters.

[Bob Chill]

19 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

 Good to see such  optimism for a pattern that's 2 weeks away. Kind of reminds me of the optimism we had in 2009 / 2010. Of course, not saying it's the same type of pattern but there seems to be a high level of certainty in the last day or two by some of our best posters.

Exactly. The 15 day pattern "joke" only applies when we are sucking a rotten egg chasing a ghost praying things will flip. The pattern has already flipped but it's a process and it's still way too early for easy snow. We're transitioning from a very good looking pattern during late fall climo to an even better pattern just as our snow climo gets going. 

We fought through a pretty tragic raging +ao/nao to kick off met winter for 6 straight years. 13-14 was half decent but still not pretty in the big picture. The last 3 were textbook disasters during winter kickoff. 

The reason i'm optimistic is because this winter is kicking off with a potentially good stable pattern instead of a really bad stable pattern. People can make fun of me all they want for posting about d15 panels but I've been at this a long time and would like to think that I have the knowledge to back up my long lead optimism. 

We all know it takes more than pretty panels to actually get a snowstorm. Luck is always in play. At the very least it doesn't look like we need longshot luck this year to pull something off during Dec. It's not a big snow month. If my yard logs 6" of snow in Dec it would be above normal. 

I'm becoming confident we will be tracking a legit threat window within 10 days or so. 

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Exactly. The 15 day pattern "joke" only applies when we are sucking a rotten egg chasing a ghost praying things will flip. The pattern has already flipped but it's a process and it's still way too early for easy snow. We're transitioning from a very good looking pattern during late fall climo to an even better pattern just as our snow climo gets going. 

We fought through a pretty tragic raging +ao/nao to kick off met winter for 6 straight years. 13-14 was half decent but still not pretty in the big picture. The last 3 were textbook disasters during winter kickoff. 

The reason i'm optimistic is because this winter is kicking off with a potentially good stable pattern instead of a really bad stable pattern. People can make fun of me all they want for posting about d15 panels but I've been at this a long time and would like to think that I have the knowledge to back up my long lead optimism. 

We all know it takes more than pretty panels to actually get a snowstorm. Luck is always in play. At the very least it doesn't look like we need longshot luck this year to pull something off during Dec. It's not a big snow month. If my yard logs 6" of snow in Dec it would be above normal. 

I'm becoming confident we will be tracking a legit threat window within 10 days or so. 

Haven’t seen you so bullish in a long time.  Maybe it’s just been a long time.  But the wounds of failed winters run deep and the pain of watching week after week of above normal temps remains fresh in our minds.  I turned the AC on last  Christmas and wore shorts.  Some like that sort of weather..but I become listless and unsponsive like roadkill.  

[Bob Chill]

25 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Haven’t seen you so bullish in a long time.  Maybe it’s just been a long time.  But the wounds of failed winters run deep and the pain of watching week after week of above normal temps remains fresh in our minds.  I turned the AC on last  Christmas and wore shorts.  Some like that sort of weather..but I become listless and unsponsive like roadkill.  

I'm bullish in the sense that we are squarely in the game to kick things off. First week looks mild but looks to get better fairly quickly. We both know that being in the game and actually shoveling snow are 2 completely different things. But I'd rather fail that way than knowing we don't stand an effin chance for weeks on end. That S is getting old. 

The other thing is there is a lot of data backing up the theory that a strong -ao December bleeds into Jan and even Feb. We won't know how that is playing out for 3 weeks or so. 

December is a tale of 2 halves. The first 2 weeks we fight climo temps. Normal highs are still near 50 but steadily decline. The second 2 weeks get easier. A flawed pattern the last 2 weeks of Dec can produce. First 2 weeks need near perfection in all aspects. At least for sig snow. Light or changeover events are more common that straight cold powder storms. 

[mitchnick]

First call. My gut says look for a legit storm threat 12/17-12/21. Why? For all the reasons Bob mentioned plus the fact that we rarely start fast when the pattern becomes decent for us, which it should be by the 10th.  I figure the pattern changes,  we get a couple of reinforcing shots of cold air, NE gets a snow out of one of those, then it's our turn. That should put us in the 12/17-12/21 period. 

[Bob Chill]

41 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

First call. My gut says look for a legit storm threat 12/17-12/21. Why? For all the reasons Bob mentioned plus the fact that we rarely start fast when the pattern becomes decent for us, which it should be by the 10th.  I figure the pattern changes,  we get a couple of reinforcing shots of cold air, NE gets a snow out of one of those, then it's our turn. That should put us in the 12/17-12/21 period. 

I like your call. We'll prob see flakes fly at least once the first half. Accum snow possible but never probable. North and west always have the upper hand on the margins of met winter. 

The nao block could work some magic and get something to track underneath at any time though. Skepticism will prevail due to recency bias of cutters and west tracks. You know...warm wet/cold dry...lol. It's been so long since we had a block that it's hard to remember that things can actually trend south in the med range. Too far out to even discuss discreet threats but that could change over the next 10 days. 

 

[aldie 22]

One thing to keep an eye on in my opinion is dry. For an example...just an off hour op run but the 6z GFS is bone dry start to finish. I believe the cold will come but the wet is what I'm watching for.

[Wonderdog]

9 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I like your call. We'll prob see flakes fly at least once the first half. Accum snow possible but never probable. North and west always have the upper hand on the margins of met winter. 

The nao block could work some magic and get something to track underneath at any time though. Skepticism will prevail due to recency bias of cutters and west tracks. You know...warm wet/cold dry...lol. It's been so long since we had a block that it's hard to remember that things can actually trend south in the med range. Too far out to even discuss discreet threats but that could change over the next 10 days. 

 

6z run bears your opinion out. 0z has an apps runner and the 6z shows a lp developing in the gulf region and is already spreading snow northeastward.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

One thing to keep an eye on in my opinion is dry. For an example...just an off hour op run but the 6z GFS is bone dry start to finish. I believe the cold will come but the wet is what I'm watching for.

Anything over the next 7-10 days would be rain so it doesn't really bug me but you're right. Current enso doesn't really support AN precip in our area during met winter. 

Both the eps and gefs show fairly prolific precip in the deep south/TN valley area spreading northward on the means during d11-15. A fairly strong signal with the eps being the bullish one. That period will likely grab a lot of folks' interest as we move forward. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

Well, the good news is we don't need AN precip.  Let's just hope for N precip.  If we could get .4" precip in the form of snow, most people would be ecstatic.

[poolz1]

You can see on both EPS and GEFS that there is a system in the works that helps to retro the trough west in the LR.  Would think more of a midwest --> New England storm....Once we get the trough axis further west...possibly our turn next.  Would put a target date range exactly where Mitch and others have said...

I dont know a ton about strat and I know it's usually only brought up when we are grasping at straws...looking at the end of the Euro run and the GEFS out to day 16 is pretty impressive.  Major warming at all levels over the pole with a very displaced vortex.  Maybe someone a little more insight can chime in? 

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

You can see on both EPS and GEFS that there is a system in the works that helps to retro the trough west in the LR.  Would think more of a midwest --> New England storm....Once we get the trough axis further west...possibly our turn next.  Would put a target date range exactly where Mitch and others have said...

I dont know a ton about strat and I know it's usually only brought up when we are grasping at straws...looking at the end of the Euro run and the GEFS out to day 16 is pretty impressive.  Major warming at all levels over the pole with a very displaced vortex.  Maybe someone a little more insight can chime in? 

You pretty much nailed it. I see the same thing. The PV looks alike a discombobulated hot mess towards day 15...just the way we like it.

[CAPE]

Quite perturbed.

[CAPE]

^The temperature anomalies probably present an even clearer picture of the perturbed PV state going forward.

 

I would post a panel, but my attachments folder is now full and I cant be bothered deleting stuff atm lol.

[Eduardo]

15 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Exactly. The 15 day pattern "joke" only applies when we are sucking a rotten egg chasing a ghost praying things will flip. The pattern has already flipped but it's a process and it's still way too early for easy snow. We're transitioning from a very good looking pattern during late fall climo to an even better pattern just as our snow climo gets going. 

We fought through a pretty tragic raging +ao/nao to kick off met winter for 6 straight years. 13-14 was half decent but still not pretty in the big picture. The last 3 were textbook disasters during winter kickoff. 

The reason i'm optimistic is because this winter is kicking off with a potentially good stable pattern instead of a really bad stable pattern. People can make fun of me all they want for posting about d15 panels but I've been at this a long time and would like to think that I have the knowledge to back up my long lead optimism. 

We all know it takes more than pretty panels to actually get a snowstorm. Luck is always in play. At the very least it doesn't look like we need longshot luck this year to pull something off during Dec. It's not a big snow month. If my yard logs 6" of snow in Dec it would be above normal. 

I'm becoming confident we will be tracking a legit threat window within 10 days or so. 

How does the MJO play into all of this though?  Seems like it becomes the wrench tosser once it emerges out of the COD.  Looks like it's forecasted to traverse Phases 3-6, which historically are unfavorable for wintry weather at this time of year, no?

[poolz1]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

^The temperature anomalies probably present an even clearer picture of the perturbed PV state going forward.

 

I would post a panel, but my attachments folder is now full and I cant be bothered deleting stuff atm lol.

Thanks!  Looks like warming reaches 10mb around day 12....bottom up warming?

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Thanks!  Looks like warming reaches 10mb around day 12....bottom up warming?

I am no expert in this stuff, so dont quote me, but I read somewhere there are/will be 2 mechanisms occurring to cause perturbation- upward propagating waves will disturb the lower(tropospheric) PV and the combo of Siberian low and ridging in the NAO domain will disturb the upper PV. So it's occurring at both ends. Probably AER update and/or HM on Twitter is where I was reading about it a few days ago.

[frd]

38 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I am no expert in this stuff, so dont quote me, but I read somewhere there are/will be 2 mechanisms occurring to cause perturbation- upward propagating waves will disturb the lower(tropospheric) PV and the combo of Siberian low and ridging in the NAO domain will disturb the upper PV. So it's occurring at both ends. Probably AER update and/or HM on Twitter is where I was reading about it a few days ago.

You are correct. 

 

 

[NorthArlington101]

GFS is back to developing a low of the coast at the end of this week. Interesting. It's had this solution a couple times. It's a really weird run overall though. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS is back to developing a low of the coast at the end of this week. Interesting. It's had this solution a couple times. It's a really weird run overall though. 

I think the Dec 11 one is more like it. That is probably about right for a legit winter storm potential realistically.

Actually if I had to make a call right now as to when we would see the first accumulating snow somewhere east of the mountains in our region- based on the current modeled timing with the pattern change- it would be sometime during the week of the 11th.

[Heisy]

That storm on the 12z GFS Day 6-8 really helps establish a block. One of the better OP GFS runs for the Long Range I've seen in a while. 

[Rtd208]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think the Dec 11 one is more like it. That is probably about right for a legit winter storm potential realistically.

Actually if I had to make a call right now as to when we would see the first accumulating snow somewhere east of the mountains in our region- based on the current modeled timing with the pattern change- it would be sometime during the week of the 11th.

That is what I am thinking up here in the NYC metro area. Somewhere in the December 10th-16th time frame but it wouldn't completely surprise me if something occurred prior to that.

[NorthArlington101]

I might get blasted but its worth keeping a decent eye on that 6-8 day period for first flakes again. I'm gonna wait till weather.us updates to speak in absolutes re: the temperatures of each individual member, but the average being shown from 12z on TT isn't that far off being a rain-to-snow storm for the favored areas, not to mention if we get the tail end of the precip coming back at us like the OP and a couple members show.

[CAPE]

Pretty nice look heading into the week of the 11th..

[psuhoffman]

I haven't had the time to do any deep analysis lately but everything I see gets my approval. December could be fun for a change. 

[frd]

38 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea... A pretty wicked run for sure. The day 6-8 storm would be a fun one to track regardless of snow chances from it. Gefs and Eps have been hinting past couple days for a storm in this period.  A little further south and it becomes real fun coastal with heavy rain / wind and possible wrap around flakes. Verbatim it gives flakes to n/w areas.  Anything beats tracking partly cloudy and 50... imo. And as you said it really sets up our area for beyond .

Looks nice. Of interest was a post this morning by Bluewave over in the NY forum, he stated , which is news to me, the ECM has the highest month ahead skill in the area of the PNA. 

Normally in a La Nina is is hard he states to get a + PNA , but as the weeklies alluded to there seems to be a real oppurtunity to have a +PNA and or even neutral in the month of December. If this would to occur based on his past and research the chances increase that December would be a BN temp month.