December 2017 Long Range Disco

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Still 6z op gives pause.   I would’ve thought the operons would start honing in on a final solution 

Not in range for that.  When we have a stable simple setup like a juiced up stj system attacking locked in cold with blocking (like Jan 16 and 2009/10) then models can give us a reasonably accurate representation at long (100 hour+) leads. But that only accounts for an extreme minority of our snowfalls. Now since they tend to be our HECS events they stick out more and perhaps create a skewed perception of when to take op runs serious. 

The majority of our more modest and complicated (requiring timing or phasing etc...) events typically do not get resolved well by guidance until inside 72 hours. And often not until inside 48 hours. The models are getting better. The typical shifts from 100 hours aren't as extreme anymore. There was a time not long ago that we wanted to see the gfs suppressed to Florida at this range. I would say the typical error has been cut in half now. Think last January when that wave looked like an outer banks storm 4 days out and ended up a nice event just to our east. Apply the same error here and we jackpot. Not saying that happens every setup is unique but we're not in locked in territory yet. 

This pattern has been coming forever. We have been on a methodical pattern evolution and models saw this well from wat out do its natural to get antsy waiting for specific events to get in range, and the first threat is almost there, but not yet. 

Overall I feel good about the coming 10-15 days. Several chances for something. I don't see a big storm but opportunities for snow. I don't mind seeing the Friday wave where it is now for starters. Many of our nice little events looked like this at this range. We will see. 

Super long range things degrade slightly with a bit of ridging under us. This time of year that might make it hard to keep things under us. However the overall look doesn't break down only relax and from there I could see a quick reload. No reason to panicj yet. 

[Bob Chill]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not in range for that.  When we have a stable simple setup like a juiced up stj system attacking locked in cold with blocking (like Jan 16 and 2009/10) then models can give us a reasonably accurate representation at long (100 hour+) leads. But that only accounts for an extreme minority of our snowfalls. Now since they tend to be our HECS events they stick out more and perhaps create a skewed perception of when to take op runs serious. 

The majority of our more modest and complicated (requiring timing or phasing etc...) events typically do not get resolved well by guidance until inside 72 hours. And often not until inside 48 hours. The models are getting better. The typical shifts from 100 hours aren't as extreme anymore. There was a time not long ago that we wanted to see the gfs suppressed to Florida at this range. I would say the typical error has been cut in half now. Think last January when that wave looked like an outer banks storm 4 days out and ended up a nice event just to our east. Apply the same error here and we jackpot. Not saying that happens every setup is unique but we're not in locked in territory yet. 

This pattern has been coming forever. We have been on a methodical pattern evolution and models saw this well from wat out do its natural to get antsy waiting for specific events to get in range, and the first threat is almost there, but not yet. 

Overall I feel good about the coming 10-15 days. Several chances for something. I don't see a big storm but opportunities for snow. I don't mind seeing the Friday wave where it is now for starters. Many of our nice little events looked like this at this range. We will see. 

Super long range things degrade slightly with a bit of ridging under us. This time of year that might make it hard to keep things under us. However the overall look doesn't break down only relax and from there I could see a quick reload. No reason to panicj yet. 

Good post. The late week deal is surely not locked in yet. And if anyone is panicing before the cold pattern even starts , they need to find another hobby asap. Lol

[Ralph Wiggum]

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not in range for that.  When we have a stable simple setup like a juiced up stj system attacking locked in cold with blocking (like Jan 16 and 2009/10) then models can give us a reasonably accurate representation at long (100 hour+) leads. But that only accounts for an extreme minority of our snowfalls. Now since they tend to be our HECS events they stick out more and perhaps create a skewed perception of when to take op runs serious. 

The majority of our more modest and complicated (requiring timing or phasing etc...) events typically do not get resolved well by guidance until inside 72 hours. And often not until inside 48 hours. The models are getting better. The typical shifts from 100 hours aren't as extreme anymore. There was a time not long ago that we wanted to see the gfs suppressed to Florida at this range. I would say the typical error has been cut in half now. Think last January when that wave looked like an outer banks storm 4 days out and ended up a nice event just to our east. Apply the same error here and we jackpot. Not saying that happens every setup is unique but we're not in locked in territory yet. 

This pattern has been coming forever. We have been on a methodical pattern evolution and models saw this well from wat out do its natural to get antsy waiting for specific events to get in range, and the first threat is almost there, but not yet. 

Overall I feel good about the coming 10-15 days. Several chances for something. I don't see a big storm but opportunities for snow. I don't mind seeing the Friday wave where it is now for starters. Many of our nice little events looked like this at this range. We will see. 

Super long range things degrade slightly with a bit of ridging under us. This time of year that might make it hard to keep things under us. However the overall look doesn't break down only relax and from there I could see a quick reload. No reason to panicj yet. 

Well-said.

[Superstorm]

Good post. The late week deal is surely not locked in yet. And if anyone is panicing before the cold pattern even starts , they need to find another hobby asap. Lol

Well said by both.

Anticipation will cause many to become anxious and panic. Just human nature.

We have seen it on the LR models for such a long time. It's like waiting for Christmas Day.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[PDIII]

2 hours ago, mappy said:

yup, we should def throw in the towel today, on an event 4-5 days away. 

Ok.. I will give it like couple of more runs.. I just hate when the GFS trends the wrong way inside of 120 hours.... thats usually the dagger.. hence my sh%tty post this morning.

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, PDIII said:

Ok.. I will give it like couple of more runs.. I just hate when the GFS trends the wrong way inside of 120 hours.... thats usually the dagger.. hence my sh%tty post this morning.

this is just equally ****ty. calm down dude. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

When I first saw last night's euro idea before seeing snowfall maps I got excited.  H5 was nearly identical to the previous run except the low oddly pops exactly 24 hours later in almost the exact same placement...interesting!

[frd]

 

 

In the NY city thread was an interesting posy by Bluewave referencing a study on the MJO phases and snow events . Seems for the area of NYC the phases 7 and 8 yield the biggest snow event, ( storms near the benchmark ) although there is a lag time of 10 days or so. Looking at the maps there  it would appear that association may hold for us down here as well in the Northern Mid Atlantic .  

Looking at the the MJO it is headed that way. 

Also,  as mentioned last night on this week in weather by DT,  there are precip signals in the time frame of the 13 to 14th and the week leading up to Christmas. His video at the end summarized this along what appears to be ripples / waves in the jet near the 12 th and the 19 th and beyond. Again, way out there but very interesting.  

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml#for

 

 

 

[midatlanticweather]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Not in range for that.  When we have a stable simple setup like a juiced up stj system attacking locked in cold with blocking (like Jan 16 and 2009/10) then models can give us a reasonably accurate representation at long (100 hour+) leads. But that only accounts for an extreme minority of our snowfalls. Now since they tend to be our HECS events they stick out more and perhaps create a skewed perception of when to take op runs serious. 

The majority of our more modest and complicated (requiring timing or phasing etc...) events typically do not get resolved well by guidance until inside 72 hours. And often not until inside 48 hours. The models are getting better. The typical shifts from 100 hours aren't as extreme anymore. There was a time not long ago that we wanted to see the gfs suppressed to Florida at this range. I would say the typical error has been cut in half now. Think last January when that wave looked like an outer banks storm 4 days out and ended up a nice event just to our east. Apply the same error here and we jackpot. Not saying that happens every setup is unique but we're not in locked in territory yet. 

This pattern has been coming forever. We have been on a methodical pattern evolution and models saw this well from wat out do its natural to get antsy waiting for specific events to get in range, and the first threat is almost there, but not yet. 

Overall I feel good about the coming 10-15 days. Several chances for something. I don't see a big storm but opportunities for snow. I don't mind seeing the Friday wave where it is now for starters. Many of our nice little events looked like this at this range. We will see. 

Super long range things degrade slightly with a bit of ridging under us. This time of year that might make it hard to keep things under us. However the overall look doesn't break down only relax and from there I could see a quick reload. No reason to panicj yet. 

Great post! Real snow season happens after December! Anything we get this month is gravy! Bob Chill mentions this often! People (including me) need to set realistic expectations.

 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

5 minutes ago, frd said:

 

 

In the NY city thread was an interesting posy by Bluewave referencing a study on the MJO phases and snow events . Seems for the area of NYC the phases 7 and 8 yield the biggest snow event, ( storms near the benchmark ) although there is a lag time of 10 days or so. Looking at the maps there  it would appear that association may hold for us down here as well in the Northern Mid Atlantic .  

Looking at the the MJO it is headed that way. 

Also,  as mentioned last night on this week in weather by DT,  there are precip signals in the time frame of the 13 to 14th and the week leading up to Christmas. His video at the end summarized this along what appears to be ripples / waves in the jet near the 12 th and the 19 th and beyond. Again, way out there but very interesting.  

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml#for

 

 

 

Absolutely! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

[pasnownut]

Seeing cliff jumpers already....ugh.

I find it interesting how some long time posters still get pulled into every model run and have to be retought every year. 

Simply put, models are hi powered guidance...with tendencies/biases, and when extrapolated verbatim every 6 hours, can be mindnumbing/painful if you look only at surface view without your meteorological model "cheat sheet" to use when perusiing said model of choice....or all of them.  While I am no expert whatsoever, and dont try to imply that i am, I continue to observe/learn....and retain in order to not run for the cliff every 6/12 hours.  That would make for a long....long season of tracking. 

Dumbed down in simplest of terms, if your not sure what your looking at, look at the ensembles until inside 72, then you can start to look the Op runs.  And if your still not sure, lurk, and read.  

Sorry to clutter up a great thread, but as we are about to enter a fun period...one that has been a long time coming, I just wanted to throw this out there.  I too can and have been wrong on things, but i post less frequently about what i'm unsure of, and try to offer infusions of sensible analysis when I feel it.

 

Nut  

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

13 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Seeing cliff jumpers already....ugh.

I find it interesting how some long time posters still get pulled into every model run and have to be retought every year. 

Simply put, models are hi powered guidance...with tendencies/biases, and when extrapolated verbatim every 6 hours, can be mindnumbing/painful if you look only at surface view without your meteorological model "cheat sheet" to use when perusiing said model of choice....or all of them.  While I am no expert whatsoever, and dont try to imply that i am, I continue to observe/learn....and retain in order to not run for the cliff every 6/12 hours.  That would make for a long....long season of tracking. 

Dumbed down in simplest of terms, if your not sure what your looking at, look at the ensembles until inside 72, then you can start to look the Op runs.  And if your still not sure, lurk, and read.  

Sorry to clutter up a great thread, but as we are about to enter a fun period...one that has been a long time coming, I just wanted to throw this out there.  I too can and have been wrong on things, but i post less frequently about what i'm unsure of, and try to offer infusions of sensible analysis when I feel it.

 

Nut  

Thanks for noting that!

[yoda]

Also take note what LWX said in their AFD... pretty good statement about the Fri potential:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level troughing will amplify over the Ohio Valley Thursday
into Friday, causing early season cold to plunge southward from the
Arctic towards the Mid-Atlantic. A piece of southern stream energy
will eject into the western Atlantic Ocean Friday, inducing surface
cyclogenesis east of the Carolinas. Current model forecasts tend to
keep this energy sheared out and thus the surface low tracks well
offshore. However, highly meridional (north to south) upper level
flow, with a very strong ridge positioned near 120 W longitude
during this time argues there is room for error in this forecast
track. This time period bears watching in the coming days.

[frd]

More heat flux

 

 

 

 

[frd]

Along the same path as above